“A” Bottom, “THE” Bottom or “NO” Bottom
Long time readers know that I am ALWAYS skeptical of bottoms where price ends the day in the bottom of the daily range. They rarely mark the ultimate low. When some of indicators turned positive at the of October 11, I wasn’t as full on bullish as I usually would be because stocks closed that day near their lows. In subsequent posts, I offered that while the majority of the price damage should be done, I would not be surprised […]
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Date: October 24, 2018
Clear as Mud. Volatility & Patience.
I keep writing about volatility ruling and boy, it is not disappointing! The huge swings high to low and low to high are extreme. It’s all part of the makings of a bottom for a good year-end rally. We did a really good job calling the peak a few weeks and then offered that the majority of the damage should be done after the collapse on October 11, but perhaps not all of the damage. The best I can put […]
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Date: October 22, 2018
Volatility Reigns. Building Blocks Needed
And just like that I am back at the airport and waiting to head home on Wednesday night. Just what I like, a jam packed two days and only one night not sleeping in my own amazing bed. As I keep writing about, volatility is going to remain elevated throughout this earnings season and into the mid-term elections. Wednesday perfectly epitomized this as you can see from the intra-day chart below. The major indices saw ranges from high to low […]
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Date: October 18, 2018
Pink & Blue Are Not Just for Baby Stuff
In yesterday’s post I mentioned that during most stock market declines, it seems like everyone turns to charts and technical indicators as their economic and fundamental indicators fail. They quote their own “key” numbers and speaking from 30 years of experience, if it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong. In other words, when so many pundits turn to the same charts, the market does its best to punish the most people. I want to spend a few minutes explaining the most basic […]
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Date: October 17, 2018
Was It “A” Bottom or “THE” Bottom? Don’t Get Comfortable Just Yet!
As you know, I had been calling for a mid to upper single digit decline in stocks since late September. That pullback has certainly come to fruition this month with the major stocks market indices down between 7% and 10%. Last Thursday brought short-term panic readings in some indicators and that served to mitigate more weakness, at least for now. Usually when these conditions occur, the bulk of the price damage has been done for the time being and at […]
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Date: October 17, 2018
Just Like the Crash of 1987, an Interest Rate Driven Decline in Stocks
When I woke up today, I wasn’t planning on doing this update. My original plan was to begin a new Street$marts and talk about stock market crashes and the panic I saw in the market over the past two days as well as address some emails I received. This was going to be just one of the articles written. As I got going, it got longer and longer and longer with all of the charts and I ran out of […]
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Date: October 12, 2018
Crash Sequence Unfolding?
As you know from my emails, quarterly report and most blogs, I have been forecasting a stock market pullback for the past few weeks. Even when the Dow Jones Industrials finally achieved my late Q1 forecast of new all-time highs across the board on September 21, I was very concerned about a crumbling market foundation that would lead to a mid to upper single digit decline in October. I couldn’t have been any clearer when I discussed my forecast on […]
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Date: October 11, 2018
Bulls Need a Stand
After some early weakness on Monday, the bulls put up a little fight before succumbing to selling into lunch. From there, they did have enough energy to bring stocks back to breakeven. Given the semi-holiday, that was semi-impressive. The bulls now have a little momentum and are supposed to run to the upside for at least a day or so. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have declined sufficiently to reach their long-term trend or the average price of the […]
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Date: October 9, 2018
Bulls Fail Again
My continued theme of a stock market pullback continues. The weakness is unfolding as expected. Small and mid cap indices have been hit the worst, but now the NASDAQ 100 is joining in. The rotation into the Dow and S&P 500 remains, but they are also down as well. Semis, discretionary and transports have rolled over and now the banks are in jeopardy of following suit. Energy, industrials and healthcare are sectors where investors are trying to hide and that […]
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Date: October 8, 2018
The Bulls Better Step Up, and Fast!
For most of Thursday, the bears growled loudly with the largest losses being seen since the Q1 correction. But rallies and bull moves do not die easily. The bull fight and fight and fight until they finally throw in the towel and the market sees what I termed the “gap of recognition”. It is a sharply lower opening that continues lower throughout the day. The bull never recover the gap until after the decline ends and the next rally begins. […]
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Date: October 5, 2018
