But, But, But Say the Bears
Another month, another strong employment report. 228,000, new jobs were added in November, stronger than expected, as the impact of the hurricanes continues to weaken. The unemployment rate remain at a 17 year low while wages grew at an annualized rate of 2.5%, still frustratingly short of where the Fed and government wants it to be. Thankfully, it’s still slightly ahead of the inflation rate. Every month it seems like the bears get all hyped up into this report with […]
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Date: December 11, 2017
Vicious Rotation and Wicked Reversals Dominate
2017 has been the year without volatility. Who would believe that stocks haven’t declined even 5% on a closing basis, let alone 10%. It’s crazy! And once the calendar gets to November, downside volatility becomes that much more difficult to see as potential catalysts for a decline go down significantly. Yes, of course, there is always that stray geopolitical event, like the infamous “Fiscal Cliff” in 2012 which I dubbed the equivalent of the Y2K hoax. The 2012 chart is […]
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Date: December 5, 2017
Can Flynn End the Bull Market?
One month to go in 2017. Lots and lots of underinvested people chasing returns now. What the heck do they do? Especially when pullbacks have been few and far between. We haven’t seen a 10% decline since February 2016. There have been no pullbacks of 5-10% at all since then. The biggest decline we have seen was in Q3/Q4 2016 and that was 4.63% in the S&P 500. Hardly what people have been waiting for to invest their cash and […]
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Date: December 1, 2017
Decisive Breakout in Stocks but Bitcoin…
First, it seems like all of the talk lately and this week is about Bitcoin and the crypto sector. Do you care? Regardless,, will you take 10 seconds to answer three short questions? TAKE SURVEY With post-Thanksgiving being slightly seasonally weak, Tuesday’s action was a pleasant surprise for the bulls. Yesterday, I mentioned that while there were a number of very short-term crosscurrents, the intermediate-term remained positive. Four of the five major indices saw decisive and significant breakouts to new […]
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Date: November 29, 2017
Bulls Remain In Charge
Stocks came back from the semi-holiday weekend in good spirits, at least for the morning. There was no follow through though as a post-Thanksgiving hangover is usually the theme for the first day or two of the new week. We still have a variety of crosscurrents over the very, very short-term, but looking out one to three months, the picture is positive. As you know, it’s very difficult to see an end of year decline, especially when the year has […]
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Date: November 28, 2017
Another Seasonally Strong Day but Europe Should Not be Ignored
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving with lots of good food, family and friends. As I wore the hypocrite hat this year, we celebrated ours on Wednesday night so my daughter and I could fly to Oregon on Thursday to watch the UCONN men and women play in the PK80 basketball tournament in honor of Phil Knight’s (Nike founder) 80th birthday. The men played such a great game to beat Oregon last night, something I definitely did not expect. […]
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Date: November 24, 2017
Long & Strong for the Bulls. Happy Thanksgiving!
The bulls were long and strong on Tuesday with all five major stock market indices hitting all-time highs. You just cannot argue with price momentum. Semis, discretionary and banks were strong while the banks were just okay. We saw very good participation when looking at the NYSE A/D Line. High yield bonds were up but they could not add to their first half hour gains. Commodities, led by oil, just finished a little pullback and seem poised for a run […]
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Date: November 22, 2017
Bulls Stampede Ahead. The Hatred and Disavowing Continues
It looks like the bulls are getting a jump on the very strong seasonal tailwind that exists the day before Thanksgiving. All of the major indices look to open strongly to the upside with all-time highs across the board possible by the time we dig into the turkey. On the sector side, semis continue their relentless rally with consumer discretionary really kicking it into high gear. Banks are climbing nicely and transports look poised for perhaps the most upside in […]
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Date: November 21, 2017
The Disaster That is GE with 3 Alternatives
Last week, I had the pleasure of joining the Nightly Business Report hosted by two CNBC veterans, Sue Herera and Tyler Mathisen. You can find the segment at the 22 minute mark HERE. This is one show I always enjoy as I am the only guest in the segment and they let me articulate my point. On this particular evening, GE’s dividend cut was the big story of the day and that spilled over into dividend paying stocks in general. […]
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Date: November 20, 2017
Bulls Plow Ahead Despite Major Issues in Washington
Stocks opened strong and surged all the way to 2pm on Thursday, as the bulls sprung back to life. Small caps led in a big way and the NASDAQ 100 scored an all-time high. Perhaps most importantly, junk bonds saw a huge day and began to repair the damage inflicted over the past month. On the sector front, semis are back to within one good day from new highs. Consumer discretionary which I left for neutral last month is also […]
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Date: November 17, 2017
