Lots of Concerns Abound
For the past 5 weeks I have often written about the elusive stock market pullback and the reasons why we shouldn’t be surprised to see it occur. We had seasonal headwinds post-September. We had strength into earnings season. We had overly bullish sentiment. Nothing really mattered for more than a day. And just because stocks are seeing some weakness here, I am not beating my chest with “I told ya so”. Being early still equals being wrong. Over the past […]
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Date: November 10, 2017
Bears Having Their Day
Not even half a day of weakness and talk of the big C is out. The dreaded correction! It’s amazing that after a 73 month secular bull market, it’s still the most hated and disavowed bull ever. Yes, it’s now been 42 months since the last 10% correction, but markets don’t fall just because of age. Corrections occur to repair breaks and right now, there aren’t enough things broken to warrant a full fledged correction. The most glaring concern is […]
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Date: April 17, 2015
Dow Theory Warnings Continue
Several months ago, I wrote back to back articles about the Dow Theory trend change. You can view them below. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20141029.pdf http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20141103.pdf Simply put, this analysis holds that the Dow Jones Industrials and Transports should move in lock step to confirm each intermediate-term move in the stock market. When one index see a relative new high, so should the other. The opposite is true at lows. When one index diverges from the other, it is a possible sign of a […]
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Date: April 6, 2015
Dow Theory Trend Change
Dow Theory has been around for decades and it’s not something I discuss very often. You can Google it to find newsletters and blogs and opinions on its value. As the stock market gets closer and closer to the final bull market peak, I think it’s something we should watch. Dow Theory works in a couple of ways and I am going to focus on one piece here, primary trend change. Dow Theory Primary Trend Change occurs when BOTH the […]
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Date: October 30, 2014
Key Sectors Sending Up Bearish Warning Signs
Last week, in Major Indices Issue Warning, I discussed how the strength in the Dow and S&P 500 were masking weakness in the other major indices and how a warning sign was given. Today, I go a step further and dive into the key sectors of the stock market. We begin this section with the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 all showing relative weakness, a clear red flag. Below is the first key stock market sector and also […]
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Date: May 9, 2014
Canaries Quiet
Thanks to my friend and business colleague/partner Dave Moenning (stateofthemarkets.com) for the canary pic. It’s been a while since I last updated this column, but it’s not because I am lazy! There simply haven’t been enough changes in the data to warrant an update. The rally through year-end was very powerful and almost all areas we in gear to the upside. And even today, while there may be a few warnings, we don’t have bull market ending conditions in place. […]
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Date: February 1, 2014
