Fed to Stand Pat – Still Operating on Powell’s Dramatic Change
What to Expect Today The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to do absolutely nothing today at 2:00pm regarding interest rates. The market is expecting nothing and nothing it will get. Any other action would be a total and complete shocker. In fact, at this point, the market isn’t pricing in any FOMC action until the very end of 2020 where a rate cut is expected. Keep in mind that market expectations even a quarter out don’t amount to […]
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Date: December 11, 2019
Boring Fed Day On Tap
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Six meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement day which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, as with most statement days, […]
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Date: July 26, 2017
Stocks Looking Down After Rate Hike
Everything happened as expected on Wednesday. Stocks stayed in a tight range until 2PM. The Fed raised rates. Yellen spoke about reducing the balance sheet. And the bullish Fed trend was significantly muted. Given how stocks closed, there is a very short-term trend which indicates lower prices today and possibly into next week. However, with the stock market set to open lower, the opportunity to take advantage is likely gone. The Dow is now the leading index and that’s not […]
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Date: June 15, 2017
Fed to Hike Rates Today In Spite of Falling Inflation. Dow 23,000 Next
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Five meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement day which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, as with most statement days, […]
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Date: June 14, 2017
Going Nowhere
Well, at least last Wednesday was fun if you were a bull! The Fed raised rates by 1/4% as expected and stocks took off on the premise that there would only be two more interest rate hikes the rest of 2017. That hurt the banks and the economically sensitive sectors and gave a strong push to the defensive sectors. I remain skeptical of only two more hikes and stand by my forecast that four hikes are in the cards this […]
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Date: March 20, 2017
Fed to Hike Rates Today. Dow 23,000 Still On Track
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Three meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, there is a significant upside edge […]
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Date: March 15, 2017
Strong Fed Trend Active Today
It doesn’t feel like it’s been six weeks since the December meeting when the FOMC raised interest rates 1/4%, but it really has. Can we get time to stand still for a month or so in order for us all to catch up? With President Trump occupying the headlines on a daily basis, Janet Yellen & Co. must be ecstatic that they out of the limelight and crosshairs for that matter. Today concludes the Fed’s two day meeting and expectations […]
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Date: February 1, 2017
Fed to Hike Rates But All Not Well
Model for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Two meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, the upside edge is just outside […]
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Date: December 14, 2016
Fed Model Says Rally. A November Surprise from Yellen?
Before I dive into the meat of the article, our market model for today is a plus or minus .50% move until 2 pm and then a rally into the close. Two of our Fed Statement Day (today) models are live and are very bullish with a success rate of 80%. We’ll see how that works out before long. With the election just around the corner, it would be almost impossible to believe that the Federal Reserve would raise interest […]
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Date: November 2, 2016
Fed Trend Says Sell but Fedex Gives Thumbs Up
After Thursday’s strength, one of our post-FOMC trading systems gave a sell signal and that calls for weakness over the next 3-5 days. This has a high degree of accuracy, greater than 75%. If stocks rally further on Friday, it will trigger another trend calling for lower prices with a hit rate above 85%. If correct, this should just be a quick and relatively mild bout of weakness that can be bought for another move to new highs on the […]
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Date: September 22, 2016
