Bulls Fail Again
My continued theme of a stock market pullback continues. The weakness is unfolding as expected. Small and mid cap indices have been hit the worst, but now the NASDAQ 100 is joining in. The rotation into the Dow and S&P 500 remains, but they are also down as well. Semis, discretionary and transports have rolled over and now the banks are in jeopardy of following suit. Energy, industrials and healthcare are sectors where investors are trying to hide and that […]
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Date: October 8, 2018
The Bulls Better Step Up, and Fast!
For most of Thursday, the bears growled loudly with the largest losses being seen since the Q1 correction. But rallies and bull moves do not die easily. The bull fight and fight and fight until they finally throw in the towel and the market sees what I termed the “gap of recognition”. It is a sharply lower opening that continues lower throughout the day. The bull never recover the gap until after the decline ends and the next rally begins. […]
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Date: October 5, 2018
Haves & Have Nots
As you know my theme over the past month has been about this “split” market developing and persisting. By “split”, I am referring to the number of stocks making new highs as well as new lows. The numbers keep climbing. Price hasn’t wavered although recently, the masses and media caught on to the fact that the Russell 2000 has been under pressure while the Dow Industrials have soared higher. That’s unhealthy behavior. What you see above is pretty egregious. Almost […]
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Date: October 3, 2018
Q4 is Here But Market Still Biding Time
I cannot believe Q4 begins today. That’s just crazy. My grandmother continues to be right when she told me years ago that the older you get, the quicker time flies by. That woman who has always been my favorite family member never gave me bad advice and always listened to me. Even the night before she passed in her sleep at the young age of 98, she told me to only buy investments that go up. I should leave the […]
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Date: October 1, 2018
Bears Taking the Ball
Monday saw the not so unusual weakness we have seen lately. However, Tuesday did not see what has become the typical bounce back since the stock market last bottomed in Q1. While I don’t want to assign too much emphasis on one single trading day, especially when it’s in my best interest, perhaps the market’s character is beginning to change. I continue to look for a bull market pullback in the mid to upper single digits. So far, price, the […]
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Date: September 28, 2018
Can the Bears Make Any Move?
While the Dow declined almost 200 points on Monday the other indices were down much less with the NASDAQ 100 closing higher, a good sign for the bulls. Overall participation was poor and the defensive sectors were hit the hardest which was little bit of a head scratcher. As I mentioned yesterday, this week is the weakest week of the year on a seasonal basis. It is also another down Monday with an opportunity for an up Tuesday. I mention […]
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Date: September 25, 2018
Junk Hanging In While Pullback Begins
This post is going to be short as I am planning on writing my special Fed piece as well as a full Street$marts before I head to New York City tomorrow. Nothing new to report. I remain negative for the next few weeks or so as the window of opportunity for a mid to upper single digit pullback has opened. I have written about the split market and small warning from the NYSE A/D Line, however high yield bonds are […]
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Date: September 24, 2018
And FINALLY, the Dow Rings the Bell
Well folks, with the Dow Industrials finally scoring fresh all-time highs, we have every major stock market index plus all four key sectors seeing new highs since the bottom of the Q1 correction. My forecast is now complete. I can’t count how many times people told me that a new bear market started or this time I was going to fall flat on my face. Don’t get me wrong. I fall on my face plenty times. I just keep getting […]
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Date: September 21, 2018
Buy Yom Kippur But Participation is Waning
As the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur is here, so ends the seasonal trend of selling Rosh Hashanah and buying Yom Kippur. It worked out very well this year, if you did the exact opposite! Rosh Hashanah was the most recent little low and stocks quietly rallied right through to Yom Kippur. The Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 have reasserted themselves while the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 have lagged, not exactly the healthiest backdrop. In sector land, banks […]
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Date: September 18, 2018
Hindenburg, Titanic, OH MY!
As I did my usual weekend research and overview I am even more convinced that there is valid reason to have some short-term concern. By short-term, I am looking at the next three to five weeks and nothing more than a single digit pullback, worst case. Lots of little things have ans continue to pop up to go along with the negative seasonal headwind this time of year. However, the real and nasty bearishness of September has been muted by […]
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Date: September 17, 2018
