Key Sectors Holding Up Otherwise Weak Market
Last week, I voiced a little more concern about the stock market as the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 broke to the downside from their trading ranges. So far, they haven’t been able to regain previous levels. Now, we have the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 trading at the lower end of their ranges and it looks like stocks have further to go on thew downside before finding more solid footing. As I have said for months, based on market […]
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Date: November 1, 2016
A Little More Concern Creeps In
At least we had one day where stocks closed firmly! As has been the case for more than a week, but really over the past month, sellers continue to snuff rallies that begin the morning. The bears say that this is a market on the verge of collapsing under its own weight. The bulls counter that with all the selling into rallies, stocks remain just a few percent off their recent highs. What I am seeing is my pullback theme […]
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Date: October 27, 2016
The Streak Has Been Broken – Gold Teetering
After four straight afternoon fades in the stock market and one neutral day, the bulls FINALLY were able to overcome a gap down open and closed near the highs for the day on Friday. However, one day doesn’t change the pullback theme of the last six weeks. Today, stocks are going to open higher with help from several deals announced along with Europe on firmer footing. AT&T buying Time Warner for $85 billion certainly is an eye opener, so much […]
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Date: October 24, 2016
Make It Four Straight
For the fourth day in a row, stocks lost steam later in the day. While the internals continue to improve, price is always the final arbiter and the 6 week pullback continues for now. At the same time, gold is popping a little and crude oil just scored a one year high, both against a strong dollar which is unusual. Both semis and software are bouncing from their first bout of weakness off the high while banks exploded higher on […]
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Date: October 20, 2016
Another Gap. Trade & Fade?
After Thursday’s reversal, Friday’s early action looked promising as I left the office before lunch to celebrate my 15th wedding anniversary playing golf with some friends at Foxwoods before the wives met us for dinner and gambling. At least the dinner went well! However, as has been the case lately, opening gaps have often been the high or low point for the day as was seen on Friday as well as on Monday. This is certainly not a sign of […]
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Date: October 18, 2016
Is Pullback Mode Finally Over???
With yesterday downside break of the very obvious trading range in the Dow, S&P 500 and S&P 400, the pundits were all over this in the media. Just like I did yesterday, I often warn to be careful of a trap. Very apparent breaks of trading range will many times result in a quick and sharp snap back as I offered. In the short-term, that is exactly what occurred on Thursday as the bears got trapped in the first hour […]
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Date: October 14, 2016
Stocks & Treasuries Looking to Diverge
With indications of morning weakness, the Dow, S&P 500 and S&P 400 will be breaking down from their six-week digestion patterns. Amazingly, for the past six weeks these indices have basically traded from high to low inside the range they saw on September 9 & 12. This action does not change my thinking about a continuing pullback and not some large scale collapse. The first thing I want to see is whether this potential breakdown is held for more than […]
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Date: October 13, 2016
Pullback Mode Remains the Short-Term Theme
My general theme of pullback mode for stocks continues in all of the major indices except for the NASDAQ 100. Gold and silver have been a more exciting story, but they, too, have paused since I wrote about them last week. Sector leadership remains very strong with semis, banks, transports and energy near their highs at the same time the defensive group has been weak. I wrote about consumer staples looking especially troubled a few weeks ago and nothing has […]
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Date: October 11, 2016
Stay Long & Strong
Similar to August 2nd when coiled up stocks broke to the downside and wiped out more than two weeks of gains, the S&P 500 did essentially the same thing on Wednesday. While it was only a .50% decline, the media turned it into a big deal; it’s not. Could stocks weaken more? Yes. Should we be concerned? No. I won’t be surprised if this pullback is the largest since the BREXIT bottom, but keep in mind that we haven’t even […]
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Date: August 25, 2016
Will the Island Top Kill the Bull???
It’s been a little longer in between updates as I was traveling in Florida for a board meeting as well as seeing some clients and visiting relatives. My 98 year old grandmother says “hello”. I feel like I need a break from eating after so many fantastic meals not to mention great conversation all around. Also, there really hasn’t been much to say. I like when the markets are calm and quiet when I am on the road. Makes life […]
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Date: August 18, 2016
