Can You Trust the Experts?
One story related by Peter L. Bernstein in “Against the Gods: the remarkable story of risk” was the experience of Kenneth Joseph Arrow, an American economist and joint winner of the 1972 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics. Some officers had been assigned the task of forecasting weather a month ahead, but Arrow and his statisticians found that their long-range forecasts were no better than numbers pulled out of a hat. The forecasters agreed and asked their superiors to be relieved […]
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Date: June 6, 2012
Once Again, It’s About Europe
Socialist candidate Francois Hollande won the election in France, throwing the Eurozone into a tizzy as Germany no longer has a fiscally conservative partner in France. This is going to get very interesting as we have Germany favoring austerity and a more hard line fiscal path, while France will look to curb the expense cuts, raise taxes and possibly increase spending. Markets cratered overnight, especially in Asia, but by the time the US opened, losses were more muted. And by […]
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Date: May 7, 2012
Gold to $2000 and Beyond
Here is the second video I did with the folks from Yahoo! at their beautiful new studio in the city. Anytime there are bold statements on gold, people come out of the woodwork to comment. And I would be surprised if they aren’t at least 100 comments by the time you read this. One of the great myths is that gold goes up when there is inflation. I think the 1990s is the perfect example of why that isn’t true. […]
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Date: April 19, 2012
The Fed, QE and Earnings Season
I had a great time with the folks at Yahoo! yesterday in New York in their brand spanking new studio. We tape three fairly controversial segments and Matt Nesto knew exactly how to bait me just right! Here is the first piece. Enjoy! http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/move-bernanke-qe3-115057583.html#more-13067 In case you missed it, The House of Mirrors has officially taken the place of The Earnings & Fundamental Palace on Wall Street. I say this at a time when the aspirations and way forward for […]
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Date: April 17, 2012
Jobs Report Overreaction
Last week on CNBC I commented on how investors and the media are way too concerned about one less than expected jobs report from Friday, just like they were way too celebratory last month. While I am glad we raised cash a few weeks, I plan to redeploy that this quarter into weakness. Give a look… http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000083018&play=1
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Date: April 16, 2012
What Keeps Me Up at Night
Here is the latest Street$marts. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120405.pdf
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Date: April 13, 2012
Apple… Is this Time Really Different???
http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120325.pdf
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Date: April 10, 2012
The Coming Crash in Apple or the Road to $1000
http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20120309.pdf
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Date: April 9, 2012
Fed’s Balance on the Way to $5 Trillion
Here is the text portion of an interview I did with ET NOW from India last night. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/you-will-see-a-fed-balance-sheet-in-excess-of-5-trillion-paul-schatz-heritage-capital-llc/articleshow/12467745.cms
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Date: March 30, 2012
Heritage Capital on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange
If you are up early, I will be on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange at 5:50am on Wednesday, March 21.
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Date: March 21, 2012
