First “Key” Day of 2015
It’s only the second trading day of 2015, but I am going to get a little dramatic and say for the short-term, it’s somewhat of a key day. The second trading day of the year is seasonally a very strong one. Given the 1%+ down day to end 2014, there is a trend to see significant strength during the first week of the New Year to counter that unusual down day. Today is also the end of what many refer […]
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Date: January 5, 2015
Santa Claus is Starting to Call… Right on Time
Over the past few weeks as stocks declined I remained firm in my forecast that Santa Claus would pay the markets a visit as he typically does in bull markets. One by one, I heard from people why this year was different, why stocks are already in a bear market, why oil would consume the market. I targeted this week and early next for the low as history suggests and for the rally to begin. Yesterday was also a very […]
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Date: December 18, 2014
Ending a Big Week
As I first laid out last week and then again on Monday, this week was expected to be a big one for the bulls. In real time, I wrote about the likelihood for a low that was then confirmed, making me very happy to have called it as it was happening. (In this business, you get to celebrate so little before the market turns on you!) The only question I had and still have is, “was that THE bottom or […]
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Date: October 24, 2014
Two Market Scenarios for the Quarter
In the last issue of Street$marts, I wrote about stocks being in a “murky” period for the next few weeks. I am going to pat myself on the back and say it has certainly looked “murky” since early October although I wish I had been more aggressive in taking action. The dark clouds have recently dissipated and the sun is starting to pop out. Once the decline began, it looked like the second half of October would see a low and that’s […]
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Date: October 21, 2014
So Far So Good!
Just two ago, I wrote about the stock market “groping” for a bottom and laid out a scenario for that to begin on Wednesday. The beaten down Russell 2000 was the key as it very quietly had been outperforming the market for three days. That behavior is not what you typically see if a crash was unfolding. Our indicators and systems backed up my own thoughts and our equity strategies went to maximum exposure at the close on Wednesday. When […]
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Date: October 17, 2014
BOOM! Now High Yield is Key
What a great day in the city on Wednesday! I knew I was okay when Metro North actually ran on time to start the day. I did two segments with the good folks at Yahoo Finance, one discussing the most overused word in investing, “bubble”, and the other on the current state of the bull market. As they are posted I will share the links. I headed to the floor of the NYSE in the afternoon for a quick stint […]
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Date: October 9, 2014
Stocks Trying to Keep Bounce Going
The stock market ended last week with a very nice bounce from the lows seen on Thursday and I discussed in the last update. Market internals were fine, but certainly not great, so far. At this point, the most prominent stock market indices saw yet another pullback that couldn’t gather steam once it approached 5%. While very unusual historically, this has been business as usual since mid 2012. The most important things to watch now are how stocks behave as […]
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Date: October 6, 2014
Textbook Consolidation Ends
Late last month, I wrote a piece concluding that stocks looked a bit tired at all time highs. Nothing terribly damaging, but they were in need of some rest. Routine, normal and healthy pullbacks can come in different forms. The easiest way for stocks to digest is to decline 2-5% fairly quickly, while another way is to see sideways movement with a slightly downward tilt for a period of weeks. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 all saw […]
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Date: September 19, 2014
Reading the Short-Term Tea Leaves
To reiterate a comment I think I have made each and every week for at least three years, the bull market may be old and wrinkly, but it’s not dead. It continues to be the most disavowed and hated bull market of the modern investing era and that’s why it will live on. On an almost daily basis, another “market professional” comes out of the woodwork on why stocks should not be at these levels. Several good friends of mine […]
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Date: August 12, 2014
The Bounce The Bounce The Bounce
In the spirit of Herve Villechaize telling Ricardo Montelban on Fantasy Island, “Da Plane Da Plane Da Plane”, here is the bounce, the bounce, the bounce. After writing about the market bouncing and what was “supposed” to happen in several posts, stocks cooperated on Friday with what has been described as a “huge rally”. I am always keenly aware of what questions I am asked by the average investor as well as the comments. Over the weekend, folks I spoke […]
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Date: August 11, 2014
