Something for the Bears to Hang their Hats on
The Dow hit yet another all time high today and there hasn’t been a 10%+ correction in 35 months. When stocks opened sharply lower on July 10th, the bears came roaring out of hibernation calling for everything from a 10% correction to the end of the bull market. It was a sea of ugly red prices on my screen due to Portuguese bank worries, and weak China data. That decline didn’t even last a full day. Nor did the decline […]
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Date: July 16, 2014
Bull Market’s Peak
The stock market hits the new week with a tiny headwind from post holiday seasonality. Last Thursday’s solid employment report finally got at least some bulls to celebrate, but it’s still very muted. At Dow 17,000 after a 10,000 point rally in the market, you would think that the majority would be in a good mood, even giddy. But that’s just not the case. Before the bull market ends, history suggests a 10%+ correction, which we haven’t seen yet. And […]
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Date: July 7, 2014
Much Ado About Nothing from Yellen & Fed Today
My how time flies… It’s Fed decision day again with Janet Yellen set to announce another $10 billion cut from bond purchases, keeping the FOMC on pace to wind down QE Unlimited later this year. After the 2pm announcement, Ms. Yellen will head over to the always entertaining (NOT) press conference. One thing I am sure of is that the Fed chair will not commit another rookie, foot in mouth, Joe Biden esque’ gaffe by committing to a specific timeline […]
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Date: June 18, 2014
Russell Trying to Join Party
Over the past few months I have often warned about the caution signs being given by the major stock market indices not all being in sync together. With 32 months passing since the last 10%+ correction, the bearish camp is hoping that age alone will befall this market. History suggests otherwise. Historically, major index non confirmation or divergence is typically a sign of a market about to correct or in the most extreme cases, the end of a bull market. […]
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Date: June 12, 2014
Bulls Hangin’ Tough
With the bearish seasonal headwinds this week, the bulls have done a nice job not giving up any ground so far. In fact, the bulls powered ahead on Tuesday and held firm on Wednesday. It certainly looks like the Dow and Nasdaq 100 want to join the S&P 500 at new highs this week. Although the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have been laggards, they have certainly led the parade over the past week. The real news so far this […]
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Date: May 28, 2014
All Time Highs on Tap
Despite significant warnings from the S&P 400 mid caps, Russell 2000 small caps, Nasdaq 100 and a host of sectors, the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P 500 are poised to see all time highs this week. The headlines will look nice and investors may cheer, but serious damage remains beneath the surface over the intermediate-term. Yes, we remain long various indices and sectors, but we will likely lighten up or hedge on a quick spurt higher. If we do see […]
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Date: May 12, 2014
All-Time Highs in Sight
This is it. Put up or shut up time for the Dow and S&P 500. Both are positioned constructively to power to all-time highs over the next week. And I think they will. With sentiment mixed, it’s hard to believe that there will be any mass celebration of new highs, especially with the index problems I discussed here. In fact, I think there is very little chance that the three other major indices will confirm the Dow and S&P 500 […]
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Date: May 6, 2014
Bounce and Then Some! Two Possible Scenarios
In the middle of last week, I posted a piece about the potential for a very short-term rally, which you can see here, http://investfortomorrowblog.com/archives/1002. Stocks had come down very hard and very fast relative to what we have seen over the past year. I didn’t believe the ultimate low was seen, but the market could certainly bounce for a few days to a week. It’s a week later now and boy did the market bounce! The NASDAQ 100 even made it […]
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Date: February 12, 2014
Turnaround Tuesday
The carnage continued yet again on Monday, spilling over from Friday’s sharp decline. If you turned on the TV, you would have thought stocks are down double digits and in free fall the way the pundits are talking about this little decline. But you know better. Since the first of the year when the market started losing the positive calendar tailwind, I have been discussing a scenario for a routine and healthy bull market pullback of 5-10%. That’s where we […]
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Date: January 28, 2014
Even the Bears are Bulls… for Now
The stock market is tired, again. That seems like a phrase I have used often this year without much follow through. There have been many times in 2013 when the market had risen sharply and then looked just plain weary. Instead of correcting or even pulling back smartly, the stock market behaved like it does when it’s in a powerful bull trend; it’s consolidated sideways within a few percent of its high and then blasted off again. “Is this time […]
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Date: December 2, 2013
