Stock Market Yawning at Recount
After a small gain on Wednesday, the seasonality bulls got their work done on Friday as the strong trend held to form. Without any weakness leading into that trend, it made it too tough for me to play it. However, I did tweet on Friday that taking a small short position at the close for seasonal weakness on Monday seemed like a better risk/reward play. Heading into the new week, we have to be on the lookout for the typical […]
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Date: November 28, 2016
Seasonals Favor Bulls into Weekend
Today and Friday are well known and widely followed seasonally strong days for stocks. That doesn’t mean we should just blindly buy and hope things work out. Stocks have been almost straight up since the election so you can certainly argue that a lot of fuel has been used up, including the last two days. As I mentioned on Monday, if the stock market was down on Tuesday I would have wanted to be long on Wednesday and Friday. That’s […]
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Date: November 23, 2016
Bulls Not Done
The bulls came back from the weekend in a good mood as stocks are rallying into lunch on Monday. While banks are taking a little breather, commodity-related sectors are leading with energy, metals & mining and materials all doing well along with some of the beaten down Hillary sectors, utilities, staples and telecom. High yield bonds are finally showing some oomph and emerging market countries are bouncing. The NYSE A/D Line is showing decent participation. I won’t rehash all the […]
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Date: November 21, 2016
Three Scenarios to Year-End
On the surface, you would think that the past nine days were nine easy days for the bulls. After all, the Dow was up more than 5%. What could be bad? Beneath the surface, there was much wrong with the post-election rally that began the day before the election. To begin with, the Dow was a leading index, followed by the Russell 2000. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 were nothing special. The NASDAQ 100 was actually down over the […]
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Date: November 18, 2016
Clinton Scenario But Trump Portfolio
In several interviews before and after the election, I offered that stocks would decline 3-6% on a Trump victory and a better buying opportunity would come towards Thanksgiving. At the overnight lows as election results were being reported, stocks were 5%. That’s not how I envisioned the pullback occurring, but it did. I certainly did not see the market forming a low overnight and then rallying 8% like a rocket taking off. Overall market directional behavior last week was conforming […]
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Date: November 14, 2016
The Path to 270 & Stock Market Reaction
Don’t forget to vote! Thanks to NBC, ABC and FOX in Connecticut for having me on regarding the election. Each segment was very different and offered new information. The first two interviews are below and I will post the FOX one as soon as I have it. Statistical Model Provides Hints at Presidential Outcome http://wtnh.com/2016/11/06/financial-expert-says-election-could-have-impact-on-stock-market/ It’s been a long two years since the midterm election and I think I can confidently state that the entire country has election fatigue. I […]
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Date: November 8, 2016
Clinton or Trump? Who the Markets Want
The happiest moment of my Monday evening was when Lester Holt said, “that concludes the first of three presidential debates”. Talk about painful. I was SO thankful that I had picture in picture so I could also watch an incredibly entertaining football game between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints. High scoring and lots of action. I thought Trump started off so well and I actually naively thought that it was going to be a real debate about policy. […]
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Date: September 28, 2016
Hillary’s Impact on Stocks
Since the historic breadth thrust in stocks after the BREXIT, the market has certainly quieted down. I have written about the “coil” for two weeks and nothing has really changed. There is a big move coming sooner than later! I am keenly watching leadership for signs that a fresh leg higher towards Dow 20K has started. Turning to the presidential election hysteria, it’s certainly been anything but quiet! BRUTAL is the first word that comes to mind. My opinion regarding […]
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Date: August 4, 2016
