More on the Post Crash Pattern… Both Paths are Bullish
The only thing missing from a “perfect” pattern is for the S&P 500 to breach the August lows for up to a few days. I hesitate to use the word “perfect” because it rarely plays out exactly as I expect, but it certainly did so in 2011. Additionally, in both 1987 and 1989 which I partially dismissed, the final lows did not breach the crash lows before the big rally began. As you can see from the chart above, I […]
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Date: October 6, 2015
Post-Crash Behavior Still Following My Scenario
Immediately after the August 24 mini crash, I opined that the bottoming process could begin as early as that very week, which it did. I also wrote extensively and did a fair amount of media discussions on the topic. So far, the major indices are nicely following that scenario which had stocks rallying off the crash low into a September peak and then revisiting that low by the middle of October. Remember the comparisons I offered from 1987, 1989, 1994, […]
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Date: October 5, 2015
Are We There Yet?
This feels like a family car trip with one of the kids constantly asking, “are we there yet?” Much of what I have to say remains the same. Stocks have almost perfectly followed my post mini-crash scenario since August 24 and they are now in the zone for a possible successful retest of those lows between now and say, October 15. With the major indices opening sharply higher today, talk will once again focus on IF we have seen the […]
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Date: September 30, 2015
Was That It?
At their worst levels on Thursday, the major stock indices were bludgeoned and downright ugly. The Dow was down to 16,000 and could have been cracked open like a coconut today had the bulls not mounted a very strong late day charge. The rally was somewhat impressive and leaves open the question of whether we just saw the revisiting of the August lows I have spoken about on CNBC’s Fast Money and written about here. With stocks looking up more […]
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Date: September 25, 2015
Market Behaving as Expected. Bottom Shortly.
In my last update, I opined that the Fed should not raise rates and that whatever they did, the market would end whatever move it was having and reverse in the other direction. First, I am glad that Yellen & Co. did not raise rates. That time will come, but it wasn’t last week. Second, stocks rallied nicely into the Fed meeting and in the moments after the announcement. However, it was the perfect “buy the rumor, sell the news” […]
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Date: September 22, 2015
My Oh My… The Music Has Stopped
If you listen to the media or have an active Twitter feed about the markets, you would think stocks have literally collapsed into the depths of a bear market. We MUST be down at least 10-15%! Yet as I type this, the S&P 500 has pulled back all of 6%. It’s a little more than half way to the 10% correction level.The Dow hit my initial downside target of sub 17,000 and the S&P 500 is on its way to […]
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Date: August 21, 2015
Rolling Out the Red Carpet for the Bears
It’s been a rough week for the bulls with Apple taking it on the chin and the Dow Industrials down every day in addition to the last two days of the previous week. Early indications have the bears heading into the weekend with another victory. I want to go back to what now seems like a very prescient post on July 20 titled Trouble Brewing Beneath the Surface. On that day, all of the major indices were at rally highs […]
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Date: August 7, 2015
Q3 Stock Market Scenarios Unfolding Nicely
Last week after the Dow plunged 350 points and began to bounce, I offered the two most probable scenarios for stocks, both of which included new multi-month lows before any real rally would begin. Stock Market Scenarios for Q3 My conclusion was, “just because we saw extreme readings on Monday doesn’t mean that the ultimate low was seen. I would argue against that. Monday’s snowball day was an important piece, but far from the final piece. Wash out readings like […]
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Date: July 10, 2015
And the Tea Leaves Were Right
Earlier this week, after weeks and almost months of continuous concerns about the bulls’ ability to step up, I wrote about the short-term tea leaves indicating a rally beginning by Tuesday or Wednesday. The bulls definitely did their part so far this week with the small and mid cap indices scoring all-time highs and the NASDAQ 100 close to fresh highs. The Dow and the S&P 500 have rallied, but are still being dragged up by their counterparts. Software, consumer […]
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Date: June 19, 2015
Short-Term Tea Leaves Say Bulls About to Step Up
The stock market remains on the defensive as I have written about for some time, not that this is a repeat of 2008 or even 2011. It’s not even your garden variety 10%+ correction. Stocks remain in the range they have been in for most of 2015. From a bullish perspective, it’s a good intermediate-term sign that after the huge run up we have seen, the bears can’t even muster a 10% correction. From the bearish perspective, stocks have stalled […]
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Date: June 16, 2015
