Bears Creeping In
In yesterday’s update, I drew two short-term lines in the sand, looking for the major indices to close below Monday’s low or above last week’s high to signify the next move. Yesterday, we saw the Dow and S&P 500 stay above Monday’s low, but the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 closed below Monday’s low. That leaves us leaning in the bearish direction awaiting full confirmation. Leadership from biotech, REITs and utilities has started to wane, but the financials are trying […]
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Date: March 12, 2014
Stocks Looking to Rest
Stocks begin the week needing to breathe after an overwhelming 7 days of news all over the landscape. Last week at this time the globe was worried about World War III but ended the week with a better than expected employment report. The bull market remains old and wrinkly, but very much alive. At this point there are no serious warning signs that the bear wants to come out of hibernation. Furthermore, there aren’t even any warning signs that a […]
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Date: March 9, 2014
Modern Day Cold War?
Geopolitical news now dominates the news cycle with nothing more front and center than the sudden and disturbing turn of events in Ukraine. It’s hard to believe that after spending $51 billion to showcase Sochi and build goodwill throughout the world, Russia has effectively hit the delete button on the whole winter Olympics with aggression in the Crimea. Is an invasion of the Ukraine next? The odds are probably 60-40 in favor. It’s something that really makes you scratch your […]
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Date: March 3, 2014
Fox Business TODAY @ 1:05 PM
I am going to be on Fox Business’ Markets Now at 1:05 PM EST today, February 4, discussing the stock market’s plunge from the perspective of someone who forecasted it a month ago. Yesterday’s collapse was very broad based with 94% of the volume on the downside. That’s the second 90%+ downside volume day of the decline and while a little late, confirmed that the stock market is in a corrective phase. Sentiment has come way off the overly bullish […]
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Date: February 4, 2014
Battered, Bruised & Beaten Up
After that “thrilling” Super Bowl, the markets come back to work kind of like Peyton Manning, battered, bruised, beaten up and in need of some TLC. Unfortunately, any TLC seen in the stock market should only be temporary and lead to more selling and lower lows. I am starting to see some constructive things, but the market isn’t there yet. Downside targets are beginning to develop and the easiest one in the S&P 500 is the 1700 area, which represents […]
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Date: February 3, 2014
Bernanke’s Swan Song at Interesting Crossroad
On Monday, I discussed how a very short-term rally was close at hand. I continued that yesterday morning about the prospects for a Turnaround Tuesday rally. The bulls came back to work on Tuesday in a very underwhelming way. The open was without conviction. Volume was anemic, further solidifying my stance that the market isn’t close to a low of any significance. With Apple’s disaster, stocks had a chance for a big gap down and short-term washout. But that wasn’t […]
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Date: January 29, 2014
Turnaround Tuesday
The carnage continued yet again on Monday, spilling over from Friday’s sharp decline. If you turned on the TV, you would have thought stocks are down double digits and in free fall the way the pundits are talking about this little decline. But you know better. Since the first of the year when the market started losing the positive calendar tailwind, I have been discussing a scenario for a routine and healthy bull market pullback of 5-10%. That’s where we […]
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Date: January 28, 2014
Very Short-Term Bounce on the Way
Stocks closed last week on a very ugly note with an across the board rout after underwhelming earnings and continued problems in the emerging markets. This is exactly the type of decline I spoke about for the past few weeks. All of the necessary ingredients were there and price finally succumbed. Friday was so ugly that it can actually be construed as okay in the very, very short-term. Days like that either lead to higher openings on Monday to relieve […]
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Date: January 27, 2014
Stocks Take It on the Chin, But…
Since the start of the year, I have been very cautious on the stock market, primarily due to market sentiment being at rally killing levels along with finally losing the tailwind of the positive calendar effects. The risk/reward looked so unfavorable that we took across the board action in many of our portfolios raising cash to even 100% in some cases, levels not seen since 2012. On average the major indices have gone nowhere for the past month with the […]
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Date: January 24, 2014
There is Always Something to Buy
Like a broken record, stock market sentiment remains at rally killing levels as it has for the past two months or so, but that certainly didn’t prevented us from taking full advantage of the Santa Claus rally. Now that the calendar turned and the most bullish period of the year has ended, the tailwind for stocks isn’t as strong. As the market has been for some time, it is stretched, very overbought and in need of good 5-10% pullback. The very […]
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Date: January 13, 2014
