Getting Anywhere?
Early Monday I wrote about the market setting up for a bounce. And that was certainly the case on Monday. Tuesday, however, was a different story as stocks gave back all of Monday’s gains and then some. Wednesday’s solid action, once again, puts the stock market on bounce alert. I keep using the word “bounce” instead of rally because it looks like there needs to be some more work on the downside before the current pullback wraps up. With each […]
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Date: August 7, 2014
Monday is Bounce Day
After some normal volatility on Friday, the bulls held their own and are positioned to see some green as the trading week opens. There are two scenarios I am watching here. The first is the lows hit on Friday. If the major indices close below those levels sooner than later, we should see some trap door, elevator shaft, immediate selling. That’s the more bearish path. Scenario number two has the market bouncing for a few days and then rolling over […]
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Date: August 4, 2014
Watching the Bounce
Thursday’s shellacking in the stock market was a bit unusual given how close in time stocks were to all time highs. As I mentioned in Street$marts, my screen was a complete sea of red except for the instruments that go up when stocks go down. As I have over said over and over and over, based on history, the bull market remains alive. In the short-term, it looks like the best case for the bulls would be a few days […]
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Date: August 1, 2014
2nd Fed Trend a Success… Pullback is Here
Yesterday, I wrote about the Fed statement day trends. History suggested, a pre announcement market of +-0.50% which was spot on with the day closing green; it closed neutral. Today, the post Fed model called for lower prices which is spot on as well. This is all in the context of the pullback I forecast two days ago. Today’s action so far is nasty with my entire screen red except for the items that go up during a down market. […]
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Date: July 31, 2014
Beginning to Feel Like a Pullback
As you know, I have been uber bullish on stocks here for a long while. It’s time to temporarily temper that enthusiasm for the market to repair a bit of short-term damage. I DO NOT BELIEVE THE BULL MARKET IS OVER! Sorry to yell, but I know that is going to be the first question I get. From my seat the bull market remains reasonably healthy, albeit old and wrinkly, and should live on into 2015 with much higher prices […]
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Date: July 29, 2014
Something for the Bears to Hang their Hats on
The Dow hit yet another all time high today and there hasn’t been a 10%+ correction in 35 months. When stocks opened sharply lower on July 10th, the bears came roaring out of hibernation calling for everything from a 10% correction to the end of the bull market. It was a sea of ugly red prices on my screen due to Portuguese bank worries, and weak China data. That decline didn’t even last a full day. Nor did the decline […]
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Date: July 16, 2014
Bears Out of Hibernation
Stocks open the day with the largest down opening in some time due to Portuguese bank problems, slowing Eurozone concerns and less than stellar data out of China. As hard to believe as it is, I have already seen a few articles calling this the beginning of a new bear market. Geez, how many time have we heard that over the past 64 months! What we are seeing now is a routine, healthy and normal 3-7% pullback. Short-term downside risk […]
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Date: July 10, 2014
Bull Market’s Peak
The stock market hits the new week with a tiny headwind from post holiday seasonality. Last Thursday’s solid employment report finally got at least some bulls to celebrate, but it’s still very muted. At Dow 17,000 after a 10,000 point rally in the market, you would think that the majority would be in a good mood, even giddy. But that’s just not the case. Before the bull market ends, history suggests a 10%+ correction, which we haven’t seen yet. And […]
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Date: July 7, 2014
Much Ado About Nothing from Yellen & Fed Today
My how time flies… It’s Fed decision day again with Janet Yellen set to announce another $10 billion cut from bond purchases, keeping the FOMC on pace to wind down QE Unlimited later this year. After the 2pm announcement, Ms. Yellen will head over to the always entertaining (NOT) press conference. One thing I am sure of is that the Fed chair will not commit another rookie, foot in mouth, Joe Biden esque’ gaffe by committing to a specific timeline […]
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Date: June 18, 2014
Short-Term Pullback Continues
Stocks head in to the new week with the bears in control over the very short-term. That’s it. Not the intermediate-term and certainly not the long-term. The major indices peaked last Monday and look like they are digesting the recent gains in very orderly fashion. More all time highs should follow when this pullback concludes. The next rally is the one I would pay particularly close attention to, especially in the small caps. The Russell 2000 is SUPPOSED to hit […]
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Date: June 16, 2014
