Turkey Burgers, US Dollar & Gold
Turkey this, Erdogan that. I would bet that the vast majority of Americans have absolutely no idea where Turkey is on a map. But, that country is in almost every financial story this week. Seeing the name so much subliminally made me order a turkey burger for lunch today! While stocks are beginning the day much lower, I think the news about a Chinese economic slowdown may be more important. In any case, as we know, stocks can never just […]
Read More
Date: August 15, 2018
All Eyes on Turkey. LOL
The bulls had their wings clipped on Friday, making it three straight down days for stocks although the bears haven’t made much progress just yet. The macro concern right now is the collapse in the Turkish Lira. Similar to Greece and Cyprus, Turkey by itself has the economic output of Connecticut and the world really doesn’t care what some crazy dictator does to his country, per se. However, any time there is a crisis in the emerging markets complex, two […]
Read More
Date: August 13, 2018
Sell Facebook. Bull Market Peak Likely In
After writing about beloved tech giant, Apple, for so long, I thought I would keep it going and turn to another overly owned and loved FAANG stock, Facebook. As you know Facebook has had its share of triumphs, trials and tribulations since its infamous 2012 IPO, but mostly troubles this year with the personal information collection scandal at Cambridge Analytica. For those who invested in Facebook at the opening price in 2012, you endured incredible pain as the stock plummeted […]
Read More
Date: August 8, 2018
Bull Markets Do NOT End Like This
Quick update as I am trying to get a full Street$marts out today or tomorrow. The theme remains the almost same. I thought a modest pullback would materialize and take the major indices below last week’s low. However, as I mentioned on Friday, the bulls put in a strong performance, like the Red Sox did over my Yankees, and took control from the bears on Thursday. That strength continues today with the S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 leading with the […]
Read More
Date: August 7, 2018
Bulls Cede Control But Lows Not In Yet
So much to discuss, too little space on the blog. I know. I know. I need to do a full Street$marts which I promise to bang out shortly. First, Fed statement day actually worked out okay as the market stayed in a tight range as forecast until 2pm and then rallied modestly into the close. Not a huge winner, but a win is a win and it kept the almost 80% accuracy rate going. Apple is now a trillion dollar […]
Read More
Date: August 3, 2018
***SPECIAL Fed Update – It Doesn’t Get Much Better Than This***
Stock Market Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Over the past few meetings, many of the strongest trends were muted but today is at least a little different. As with most statement days, the model for the day calls for stocks to return plus or minus 0.50% […]
Read More
Date: August 1, 2018
Turnaround Tuesday, Apple and Gold
When stocks are in decline, there is an historical trend after a down Monday for stocks to reverse on Tuesday. As the theory goes, sellers hit the market on Thursday, try to rally on Friday which ultimately fails and then spend the weekend reading negative press about the market. On Monday, there is more selling to get the last seller completed. From there, some kind of bounce or real rally begins on Tuesday. While the rationale is a bit shaky, […]
Read More
Date: July 31, 2018
Selling the News
On Friday, I wrote about the strong GDP report and given the market’s rally into the number, I wouldn’t be surprised to see sellers come into stocks but buyers into the bond market. While bonds jumped up at the open, they very slowly eroded some of those gains during the day in a quiet session. Stocks, on the other hand, opened up with some small gains before being swamped by sellers the rest of the morning, perfectly epitomizing “sell the […]
Read More
Date: July 30, 2018
Q2 GDP Surges, But, But, But
Preliminary Q2 GDP came in at +4.1% this morning, right in the middle of my range. While the majority “expected” this accelerating growth, that was only in recent history, meaning everyone ramped up their forecasts lately. As I saw the number print, I thought that there would be no way for the naysayers and negative media folks to spin this against the strength that it is. But yes, they surprised me again with a chorus of “yeah, but”. I heard […]
Read More
Date: July 27, 2018
Bears Have the Ball
For the past week or so, I have shared some minor stock market concerns, but also opined that it looked like the major stock market indices were going to make new highs for July before any downside was forthcoming. On Tuesday, all five major indices scored new highs for July right at the open ad then steadily eroded those gains throughout the day. All except for the Dow Industrials which continues to establish leadership. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 […]
Read More
Date: July 25, 2018
