The Legend of October
A month ago, I wrote an article debunking the theory that September was always a poor month for the stock market. You can re-read it HERE. Essentially, September’s ire was very much dependent on how price came into the month. While the average return since 1928 has been -1.1%, coming into September 2017, price action suggested an up month with an average price of +0.50%. As I write this, the S&P 500 is ahead by 1.5% on the final day of […]
Read More
Date: October 2, 2017
Stocks on Solid Footing Heading into Q4
Since late July, my overall theme has been one of pause to refresh with a mild pullback as the five major stock market indices were certainly not all in gear to the upside. Two months later, with the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 recently surging, they are all getting closer together. That behavior comes at the expense of the NASDAQ 100 peaking earlier this month and moving sideways for the others to catch up. I fully expect November and December […]
Read More
Date: September 29, 2017
Trump, Merkel & Tech
Stocks begin the week with a mixed bag of news. President Trump made for a rough weekend with his comments regarding the NFL and player protests as well as saber rattling with North Korea. In Europe, Angela Merkel’s party won the election for the fourth time and she is the presumptive Chancellor yet again. For two years, I have been calling the German election the single biggest geopolitical event since the Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1999, officially creating the […]
Read More
Date: September 25, 2017
***Special Fed Day Alert. No Rate Hike But Changes to Balances Sheet Announced***
Behavior Models for the Day As with every Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement day, there is a model for the stock market to follow pre and post announcement. Certain environments have very strong tendencies while others do not. Seven meetings ago was one of the rare times where the models strongly called for a rally on statement day which was correct as well as a decline a few days later which was also correct. Today, as with most statement […]
Read More
Date: September 20, 2017
Semis Breaking Out But Some Concern Out There
Stocks begin the new week on decent footing yet I remain of the belief that strength is a better selling opportunity than a buying one for now. While the underpinnings are not suggestive of recession, bear market nor 10%+ stock market correction, I continue to see evidence that a mid single digit pullback may be in the cards over the next 6 weeks. It’s also the single weakest of the year based on history. This one single week performs more […]
Read More
Date: September 18, 2017
Semis Strong, Shouldering the Burden. Other Sectors Stepping Up.
The stock market continues to quietly drift higher, at least on the surface. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have seen new highs this week while the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 look constructive but still well below their peaks. I do expect them to play catch up and see blue skies before any meaningful downside is seen. I wrote about the banks earlier this week as being a concern. Discretionary is a bit stronger but also not firing […]
Read More
Date: September 15, 2017
Banks Warning, Hold Key to Bull Market
Since late July I have been in the camp looking for a trading range with a mild/modest pullback. I remain of that opinion today. Should stocks gather themselves and score fresh new highs this month, I think it will be a good opportunity for the nimble to sell for a modest move lower into October. All along, I have written about a mid single digit pullback and that’s still my target. I do not believe we will see a 10%+ […]
Read More
Date: September 12, 2017
Remembering 9-11
September 11th seems to sneak up on me each year. With summer vacation, kids going back to school, Labor Day and the start of the NFL season, it feels like I wake up and realize 9-11 is either the next day or very close by. We all remember where we were and what we did on September 11th, 2001. I was sitting in my office and saw the World Trade Center on TV with the media reporting that a plane […]
Read More
Date: September 11, 2017
The Misconception About September’s Ire
Academics and the media do a pretty good job of warning the investing public of September’s historically poor performance. In fact, many investors become alarmed each year as August comes to an end and the various dire studies are paraded around. After all, since 1928, September is by far the worst month of the year with an average return of -1.1%. 39 have been up while 49 have been down. The other 11 months are basically flat or up with […]
Read More
Date: September 7, 2017
Small Caps, Semis & Junk Leading. Banks Looking Sick
Stocks ended last week on firm footing as the bounce saw four nice days. With more North Korea tensions in the air, it will be interesting to see if the stock market finally cares or just uses this as an excuse to open mildly lower. Very quietly as I have mentioned before, the Russell 2000 has been leading the major indices. That does have bullish implications if it holds on. Additionally, the semis which have been the only key sector […]
Read More
Date: September 5, 2017
