Economy “Booming”
288,000 NEW jobs created in April. Unemployment rate plummets to “only” 6.3%. The U.S. economy is back! Does it feel like that to you or your friends? My thesis since the crisis began has been that post financial crisis recoveries are frustrating. They tease and tantalize on the upside but rarely deliver. GDP growth never hits “escape velocity” and unemployment remains stubbornly high. With the government printing a 6.3% that’s hard to still say “stubbornly high”. Digging into the details […]
Read More
Date: May 3, 2014
No Foot in Mouth for Yellen Today
The Fed concludes their two day meeting today with the market expecting no increase in interest rates and another $10 billion tapered from their QE program. That would leave the Fed to continue purchasing treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities to the tune of $45 billion per month. After Janet Yellen’s rookie gaffe six weeks ago during the press conference, the chair is lucky that there won’t be another press conference today. Rather, the Fed will release a statement with […]
Read More
Date: April 30, 2014
Major Indices Not Singing a Good Tune
2014 may be young, but so far, it’s exhibiting a very different character than 2013 with the rate of ascent completely flat lining and the high flying leaders hit very hard. In other words, the year has been digesting as I wrote about in the 2014 Fearless Forecast. Don’t get me wrong, just because I forecast this type of action doesn’t mean it has been an easy year to make money. It hasn’t. And I don’t think that changes just […]
Read More
Date: April 25, 2014
“IF” – Something Ain’t Right
IF the employment data are improving… IF retail sales remain strong… IF the Fed is tapering because the economy is doing better… IF consumer sentiment is constructive… IF shipments at Port of LA see largest increase in 7 years… IF, IF, IF… Then why is the most economically sensitive bond’s yield falling out of bed like something dark is lurking?
Read More
Date: April 21, 2014
Rally, Decline… Outcomes Abound
The stock market begins the post holiday week in neutral territory after the mid week bottom last week that I discussed on Yahoo Finance. The day before Good Friday is usually up less than 0.50% and that ended up coming true. The Monday after Good Friday, which is also the first day after April option expiration has a bit of a headwind to it so a strong advance by the bulls would be an especially positive sign. In all likelihood, […]
Read More
Date: April 21, 2014
Bulls Step Up… Kinda Sorta
What a great day I had in New York with my friends at Yahoo Finance and Fox Business. In all, there should be five segments posted over the coming week. I began the day at Yahoo with Jeff Macke doing a piece called The Rally Has Begun and Here’s How to Play it. Click on the link and let me know what you think. This was the “calmest” of the three segments! Changing gears, here are some comments from recent […]
Read More
Date: April 16, 2014
Media Day
I am heading to New York to first visit my friends at Yahoo Finance and their Breakout show with Jeff Macke. By week’s end, they should have 2-3 segments created on their website from our discussion. After that, it’s on to Fox Business to spend 30 minutes with Maria Bartiromo on her new show Opening Bell. I am scheduled to be on between 10am and 10:30am discussing a wide variety of topics. Although I hate the pre-dawn wake up call, […]
Read More
Date: April 16, 2014
Stocks Remain in Pullback Mode
With the major indices down 4-8% I am once again getting questions whether the bull market has ended and a multi-year decline is unfolding. I don’t think so.The New York Stock Exchange Cumulative Advance/Decline line recently scored an all time high. When bull markets end, we typically see this indicator peak months, quarters or even years before the Dow and S&P 500. The same can be said of the high yield bond sector. Bear markets are usually associated with restrictive […]
Read More
Date: April 14, 2014
Market stems sell-off but volatility is here to stay
Thanks for the quote Jeff Benjamin! Click here for article Market stems sell-off but volatility is here to stay Advisers agree investors need to stay calm and avoid knee-jerk selling By Jeff Benjamin Apr 8, 2014 @ 11:39 am (Updated 5:39 pm) EST Print E-mail Reprints 13Shares Bloomberg News The short and sudden streak of market volatility took a breather on Tuesday as traders took advantage of pullbacks by some of the higher-beta stocks. But financial advisers and market […]
Read More
Date: April 14, 2014
U-G-L-Y Day on Thursday
The stock market had a very rough day on Thursday with all of the major indices breaking down below all short-term support levels for the chartists out there. There is no other way to characterize than UGLY. Keep in mind, however, that so far, all we have seen are 3-6% declines. It feels much worse because we saw two large down days over the past week, the likes of which we haven’t seen all year, including the January pullback. On […]
Read More
Date: April 11, 2014
