Stocks Regain Half of Bear Market – New Highs Ahead?
Earlier this week I wrote about the stock market visiting the Magical and Mystical level of the average price of the last 200 days. I was a bit snarky and sarcastic as I usually am when pundits make asinine comments and claims. In any case, I wrote that the “obvious trade is to suck money in and then quickly pull the rug”. Judging by the last two days and what looks to be a weak opening and options expiration, that’s […]
Read More
Date: August 19, 2022
The Magical & Mystical 200 Day Moving Average
On Monday I wrote China Stinky and said that we need to see how markets react to the news rather than accept the news at face value. And wouldn’t you know it, U.S. stocks surged higher after opening lower in the face of all that bad news. Let me get my shocked face, said me with full sarcasm. Can we rewind all those bearish pundit interviews before 10am on Monday? Of course the media won’t hold anyone accountable. On Tuesday […]
Read More
Date: August 17, 2022
China Stinky
The new week begins with news that China’s economy isn’t as robust as thought. Who really knows what goes on over there. They are never forthcoming will data so this likely means it’s kind of stinky now. While that news hit the pre-market let’s remember that it’s not what the news is, but rather how markets react. Have you heard that before? When I look at the Chinese stocks and ETFs of which we own KWEB, they all seem to […]
Read More
Date: August 15, 2022
Make Like a Banker—Stress Test Your Retirement Strategy
You’ve probably heard of stress tests for banks. These are designed to anticipate (and thereby lessen the impact of) worst-case scenarios: What if a stock market crash happens? What if rates go up? But what about your retirement money? Similarly, you should also be thinking about how you would react to adverse scenarios, such as an unexpected medical emergency or the death of your spouse. A retirement stress test can help evaluate how well prepared you are for unexpected events […]
Read More
Date: August 15, 2022
Face Ripping Rally
On Wednesday before the government released the first of two inflation reports I wrote If I am Wrong the Rally Has Ended. I try to be crystal clear on my thesis. I wrote that “I do not believe the rally has ended…” There was no wavering. But I always try recognize how and when I could be wrong. I was surprised at the number of emails asking me why I thought the rally was over. I never said I thought […]
Read More
Date: August 12, 2022
If I am Wrong the Rally Has Ended
The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has basically gone nowhere in 7 trading sessions. Bulls say it is a sign of strength that all the negative headlines have been unable to shake the market lower. Bears looks at that dark blue horizontal line below and conclude that stocks failed to close above it and are now vulnerable. Although I do not believe the rally from the June 17th bottom is over, I am certainly aware of a […]
Read More
Date: August 10, 2022
Heading to the Hamptons – No Recession There
For you golf fans out there, if you didn’t catch Nick Faldo’s retirement from a second successful career, it’s one for the ages. Watch here. And so we start a new week with the dog days of summer still crushing New England and much of the country. I cannot get over how long we have had hazy, hot and humid days in CT. This isn’t the southeast where people are used to it. And if you’re keeping score at home, […]
Read More
Date: August 8, 2022
***Q2 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. Let’s dive right in, be upfront and recognize that Q2 was a very challenging quarter in almost every asset class and across the spectrum with poor performance at a level not seen since Q1 2020. In fact, although the stock market did not […]
Read More
Date: August 5, 2022
High Yield Bonds Join The Party – FINALLY!
Until the last few weeks, I had been complaining about high yield’s lack of enthusiasm off the June lows. The sector had looked like death. I am sure part my bemoaning was that the fact that we have been legging into the high yield sector since June to get fully fully invested. Below I show you two different ways to view junk bonds, through an ETF and a mutual fund, let me also say that because these bonds pay high […]
Read More
Date: August 3, 2022
Dog Days of August
I can’t believe it’s already August. I am not ready for the countdown to end summer, even though ski season may only be 100 or so days away. I like wearing shorts, tee shirts and flip flops. Where has the year gone? Can we slow down a bit? July’s market action was a whole lot more fun for the bulls than June, May, April, etc. The S&P 500 was up more than 9% and the bond market rallied by 2.5%. […]
Read More
Date: August 1, 2022
