A Powerful Indicator Just Lit Up – Not to Be Ignored
The major stock market indices continue to digest recent gains. We know that the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have been leading while the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have been lagging. I expected Friday’s employment report to lead to some Monday morning fireworks, but that doesn’t seem to be the case. Stocks look down a bit and bonds a little worse, but nothing too bad. The bulls should make some noise during the day. Those of you […]
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Date: April 10, 2023
April & Q2 Setting Up Nicely For The Bulls But Concerns Remain
Let’s focus on April and what it seasonally brings to the stock market. We know that it an historically strong month for stocks, especially in a pre-election year. We also know that when it begins the month in an uptrend, it averages more than 1% return. We also know that the super strong trends that began at last November’s election continue this month and through Q2. Regarding Q1 ending, when the stock market does not breach the lowest levels from […]
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Date: April 6, 2023
New Month & Quarter – Could Banks Be a Winner?
The new month and new quarter begin today and the typical tailwind may be somewhat muted because of how strong stocks were last week. Nonetheless, we still have positive seasonals this week. With the masses looking to avoid showing banks on their Q1 ending reports I wonder if we see some reversion to the mean for the super hated sector that was in the spotlight for much of Q1. I can’t say the chart above of the banks really creates […]
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Date: April 3, 2023
Never Die on the Hill of a Market Scenario
Although the media keeps saying how surprised they are about the strength this week, it was in the cards last week and I wrote about it in all posts. It’s really amazing how they try to spin a new narrative to back up the price again. Last week, it was about the teetering banking system and how easy it is to create a bank run. Who would be next? Or, would Yellen’s and the FDIC’s measures save the system from […]
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Date: March 31, 2023
“What if I Run Out of Money?”
Is a recession coming? Are you worried about running out of money after retirement? With the financial uncertainties caused by a likely 2023/2024 recession, global economic turmoil and increasing life expectancies, even some affluent families and individuals are growing apprehensive about their financial future. However, there is a way to ease those fears—by getting proactive. If you create a comprehensive financial plan for your post-retirement years, you can ensure that your retirement savings last throughout your life. We just need […]
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Date: March 31, 2023
How a 2023 Recession May Impact the Elderly
As the economy continues to show uncertainty, many people are asking themselves how a potential recession in 2023 may impact their finances and future plans. This is especially vital for the elderly population: People living on fixed incomes are facing heightened levels of financial concern alongside retirees-to-be with fewer working-age years left before retirement age. Even financially independent families and individuals should be aware of the potential risks posed by a 2023 recession. It’s vital to understand which actions taken […]
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Date: March 30, 2023
Seasonals Remain Strong – Banks Still Key
As I mentioned on Monday this week continues to be strong on a seasonal basis. Last week’s high in the various major stock market indices is the next point for the bulls and bears to embrace. Until then on the upside it is just noise, however I do believe the market will exceed those highs shortly. Beyond this week, we also have strong seasonal trends in April and the entire Q2. Remember, seasonals act as nice tailwinds or headwinds, but […]
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Date: March 29, 2023
It’s ALL About the Banks
I know it was a big ask for both Huskies teams to make it to Texas, but the men came through and earned their first Final Four appearance since 2014. Friday was another interesting day in the saga of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature and Credit Suisse. It was only a matter of time before the bears turned their focus to Deutsche Bank as I mentioned last week. The difference is that the German government is not going to allow DB […]
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Date: March 27, 2023
Stress Ahead of the Weekend – Yellen & Her Flip Flops
The Fed did what was expected and hiked 1/4%. Jay Powell’s press conference was viewed positively by the markets. It looks like maybe one more 1/4% rate hike and then to neutral. But Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen overshadowed Powell by doing a flip flop of her flip flop. And I am not referring to the rubber things I wear on my feet when it’s warm. On Wednesday she commented that the government has no intention of guaranteeing an unlimited amount […]
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Date: March 24, 2023
Fed to Hike by 1/4% – Balance Sheet Balloons Again!
Today, the FOMC (Fed) concludes their regularly scheduled two-day meeting. And for the first time in years, there are two outcomes being discussed by market participants which makes today all the more interesting. The stock market model for the day is plus or minus 0.50% and then a rally into the close post-2pm. However, we should realize that the stock market has rallied smartly into the announcement, taking some firepower away. In my view what usually is an 80% certainty […]
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Date: March 22, 2023
