A 30-50% Collapse?
Greetings from the left coast where I am in the process of traveling home from a mystical and magical week at Pebble Beach with friends. Having not been there for 31 years, I was at a loss for words to describe how amazing it felt to be back at the greatest golf resort on earth, not to mention playing golf with and socializing with a good number of PGA and LPGA pros. If only my golf game cooperated! Looking back […]
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Date: November 22, 2021
Inflation Building to a Peak – Stocks Euphoric
Hopefully, you have seen my thesis that inflation is in the process of peaking. Notice, I didn’t say it peaked. The process has begun. That’s high conviction and what I going with until proven otherwise. If I am correct we will see this unfold in various sectors and asset classes, like commodities, industrials, materials, energy and bonds. For the past week I have not had strong conviction that the mild, barely discernible pullback was over and I still don’t. Sentiment […]
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Date: November 17, 2021
Inflation Peaking – Sentiment Greedy, Giddy & Euphoric
The bulls enjoyed a nice bounce back on Friday from the minuscule pullback last week. While it’s not my highest conviction play it certainly looks like there should a bit more downside to come, and preferably before the holiday. As I mentioned last week, sentiment is getting to the point where is about as euphoric, greedy and giddy as it ever gets, rivaling several spots in the post-2008 bull market as well as the Dotcom era. But before you assume […]
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Date: November 15, 2021
Inflation Peaking
Markets have been super quiet over the past few days. We have seen the pause and mild pullback I wrote about, but there should be more to it. Sentiment is back in the greedy, euphoric stage, but let’s remember that frothiness usually needs some structural damage before we see real weakness. Economic and earnings data continue to support my theme that the economy is re-accelerating strongly. Inflation data is the hottest in 31 years which also is right in line […]
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Date: November 12, 2021
Pullback Coming But Bears Won’t Be Happy
Let’s talk pre-Thanksgiving turkey. From October 12 through November 8, the S&P 500 has basically gone straight up with one noticeable down day on October 27. That’s only one real down day in 18. That would be called a powerful and momentum driven market. Momentum dies hard. Strength begets strength. Eventually, the bulls just get exhausted and stocks pull back because there’s no buying power available. That’s the likely scenario here. Stocks will just mildly pull back with little notice. […]
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Date: November 10, 2021
Goldilocks Is in the House – No Concerns Anywhere
Listening to the media on Friday, you would think that the powerful employment report caused a major surge in stock prices. It was literally a parade of bulls with many being asked if things could ever get better. We now have the “perfect Goldilocks environment for stocks”. Oh boy. Uh oh. 20 months ago with the Dow Industrials at 18,000 almost no one wanted to invest. As stocks rallied and rallied and rallied, more and more investors hopped on board […]
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Date: November 8, 2021
The Headline Jane Believed and How It Affected Her Financial Future
In my experience as a financial advisor for more than 30 years, I’ve learned that many investors, even confident, successful, high net worth investors, learn by example, like we do in the rest of our lives. Unfortunately, many times, this example is a mistake they make themselves. With this in mind, I’d like to tell you about “Jane,” a well-educated woman I met before the pandemic who agreed to let me share her story. Some mistakes can be quite costly, […]
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Date: November 8, 2021
Even I was Surprised
It’s jobs Friday and the report did not disappoint. As you already know from this Yahoo segment on October 28, my high conviction thesis has been that U.S. economic growth re-accelerates strongly in Q4 and Q1. I hadn’t seen anyone else with this call in October. Additionally, earnings also surprise to the upside for Q4. In turn, this would also keep the bull market running powerfully into 2022 with the rising tide lifting most boats. I know I have been […]
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Date: November 5, 2021
No Surprises
There have no surprises this week, at least not for my readers. The Fed announced its overdue plan to reduce asset purchases. Check. The Russell 2000 finally scored a new all-time high. Check. The Dow Industrials hit my upside target of 36,000. Check. The other major stock market indices continued to make new highs. Check. The rising tide has lifted most ships. Check. The rally since late September has been powerful and relentless. Starting on September 20 and ever since, […]
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Date: November 4, 2021
Stocks Ain’t Done – Lots of Clowns Pretending to Know – Fed to FINALLY Taper
Let me start off by sharing a fun, engaging and informative interview I did with the good folks at Investors Hub. The Federal Reserve is currently meeting and we are finally going to hear about the long-awaited, surprise to no one, way overdue plan to taper asset purchases. This should have started over a year ago when inflation was in its infancy. Of course, my readers began hearing about inflation in the summer of 2020 as the train was leaving […]
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Date: November 2, 2021
