Economy Sees Recession During the Next Four Years
The Friday before the election, our quantitative election model forecasted that Donald Trump was going to be the 45th President of the United States. I didn’t believe it myself, yet I didn’t question whether the model was broken. After all, it’s accuracy rate has been higher than 80%, correcting predicting every election since 1996. After a barrage of media interviews where some questioned whether I was just a shill for Mr. Trump, the election came and he was in fact […]
Read More
Date: January 31, 2017
Top 8 Shocking Surprises Plus 2 Bonuses Under Donald Trump
The Friday before the election, our quantitative election model forecasted that Donald Trump was going to be the 45th President of the United States. I didn’t believe it myself, yet I didn’t question whether the model was broken. After all, it’s accuracy rate has been higher than 80%, correcting predicting every election since 1996. After a barrage of media interviews where some questioned whether I was just a shill for Mr. Trump, the election came and he was in fact […]
Read More
Date: January 31, 2017
Dow 20,000 Already Forgotten
Last week, the Dow hit my longstanding target of 20,000, first given on CNBC’s Squawk Box in 2010 just after I forecast that the Fed’s balance sheet would hit a staggering $5 trillion. If we see 5 consecutive closes above 20,000, the next upside target will be created. Since Dow 20K, it’s been even more Donald Trump and politics on the financial channels. I think the Q4 GDP report is now totally forgotten. Market sentiment had become a little frothy […]
Read More
Date: January 30, 2017
Dow Breaking Out & Q4 GDP Miss the Last
After hitting yet another one of my upside targets, 20,000, the Dow has yet to pause. Five straight closes above 20,000 will open up new upside targets before the bull market ends. As you can see below, the Dow has been consolidating sideways since early December. That’s often referred to as a flat top or box. When prices finally exceed the flat top, they oftentimes see a spurt in the same direction. Although momentum is on the side of the […]
Read More
Date: January 27, 2017
Bulls Wake Up and Attack
No sooner did the ink dry on Monday’s piece than the market quickly tossed aside my thinking for a bit more of a pullback before racing to new highs. Since December 13, four out five of the major stock market indices have been digesting post-election gains and pulling back in a very orderly fashion. Only the NASDAQ 100 has really moved meaningfully higher. After a morning of selling on Monday, the bull pushed stocks higher into the close. On Tuesday, […]
Read More
Date: January 25, 2017
“Buy the Election, Sell the Inauguration”
That’s been a popular refrain over the past week as stocks continue in stall mode, basically since December 13. In fact, the Dow and Russell 2000 are now down on the new year. Only the NASDAQ 100 which I thought would go from laggard to leader has had the power to forge ahead in 2017. However, that index is now looking a bit tired and in need of a little rest which won’t be so bad. For most of the […]
Read More
Date: January 23, 2017
Bulls & Bears Even But Opex Tilts Down
Bulls and bears come into the new week on equal footing, both still fighting it out in the trading range. The bulls have done nothing wrong to indicate anything more than a 3-5% pullback and the bears will have a lot to prove at that point. Since early December, the small cap Russell 2000 has lagged and the bulls are getting to that point where it’s time to step up. Clearly, the unpopular NASDAQ 100 has been the leadership index. […]
Read More
Date: January 17, 2017
Bears Need to Act Quickly, But Bulls Won’t Make It Easy
After Thursday’s morning sell off the bears finally had something to latch on to. All they needed was to stave off any bull attempt to rally into the close so the bears could try and follow through on Friday morning. However, as pundits called for more weakness, stocks rallied all afternoon and into the close. Unless the bears can make some serious noise on Friday and undercut Thursday’s low, it looks like Dow 20,000 will be tested over the coming […]
Read More
Date: January 13, 2017
Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2017
It’s amazing how powerful the turn of the calendar can be. New Year’s resolutions dominate the landscape with all of the weight loss programs and workout products at the top of the list. I’ve never been a huge “resolution” person, probably since there’s just too much I need to change and it’s a little overwhelming! But each year, I may pick one single project or thing that needs to get done and is manageable. Last year, my goal was to […]
Read More
Date: January 10, 2017
Dow 20,000 on Hold for Now
On Friday the Dow Jones Industrials failed to touch the vaunted 20,000 level, missing by less than a single point. It’s been interesting to watch the media fall over themselves, cheering, pushing and encouraging the Dow to touch 20,000. Frankly, it’s kind of embarrassing. What’s worse has been the pundits who actually believe Dow 20,000 actually means anything. It’s just a number although I guess eclipsing milestone levels does add to the euphoria. For me, it’s been a target I […]
Read More
Date: January 9, 2017
