Yes, I Know… The Pullback to Buy
At the end of last week, stocks looked a tiny bit tired. Two days later and 2% lower, it’s getting ripe for at least a bounce. Over the past week, the inverse volatility ETF (XIV), which is really just the S&P 500 times 5 or 6 is down a whopping 34%! That’s some odd behavior and historically does not portend more significant downside. Stocks are pulling back as they approached all-time highs which is certainly not unexpected. There are few […]
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Date: June 14, 2016
The Answer is NO
If we were playing Jeopardy, the question would be, “Has the Stock Market Peaked?” The other day, I wrote about the potential for a 1-3% pullback in the context of generally higher stock prices. That remains my view and weakness can be bought. It’s amazing that a single day of decline in the stock market after a 5% rally can bring out so many bears. Stocks were overdue for some weakness and now we have it. While it’s probably a […]
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Date: June 10, 2016
Chicken Little is Alive and Well
In Friday morning’s piece, The “All-Important” Jobs Report, I discussed that it’s much more important to watch how the markets react to the news rather than what the actual news is. The jobs report was abysmal and the media reacted in kind by rolling out every bearish economist to let us know that the economy was as weak as anytime since 2009. Market strategists also responded as expected with the same wrong calls for a major correction and new bear […]
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Date: June 8, 2016
The “All-Important” Jobs Report
Another new month, another employment report. As usual, the media is hyping this to the Nth degree as a clue to what the Fed is going to do with interest rates later this month. I learned very early on that economic reports and earnings and geopolitical news don’t really matter. It’s how the markets REACT to the news that’s really important. In October 2000, companies started reporting very solid earnings, but stocks fell sharply day after day in what became […]
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Date: June 3, 2016
Buy the Dip
As you know, I turned short and intermediate-term positive again last Monday. My long-term bullish view never changed. Stocks rallied really nicely for most of the week and should see higher highs coming in June. I closed Friday’s post with a comment that a pullback this week would not be so bad. I think it’s here and should be routine and healthy with a quick bout of 1-3% weakness. There is one caveat which I will mention in another post […]
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Date: May 31, 2016
Bulls Have Room to Run
Having turned negative on stocks on April 21, I warned last week that our models were close to turning positive again. What I didn’t realize at the time was that it was going to happen just a few hours later and confirmed on Monday. If you recall, I wasn’t expecting anything major on the downside, just some normal and healthy weakness, or a pause to refresh before heading higher again. I did believe that it would be the largest pullback […]
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Date: May 27, 2016
Bears Still in Control but Bulls Getting Closer
As you know from the suddenly negative piece below, I temporarily abandoned my bullish stance on April 21. At that time, we significantly raised cash, hedged and/or purchased securities that don’t perform with the stock market. http://www.investfortomorrow.com/newsletter/CurrentStreet$marts20160501.pdf At that time and every week since on www.investfortomorrowblog.com, I did not believe that stocks were on the verge of collapse or that a new bear market was unfolding. It just looked like a normal, healthy and much needed pullback that should end […]
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Date: May 20, 2016
Plodding through the Pullback
Not much has changed this week. As has been the case since April 21, I am still looking for lower prices, but nothing dramatic. The selling has been orderly and constructive. The NYSE advance/decline remains very strong and healthy, not what you typically see during bear markets or large declines. High yield (junk) bonds, which we have owned for months, continue to behave very well with oil stable and rising. The major stock market indices are only a few percent […]
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Date: May 18, 2016
“Bounce” Teetering
The “bounce” I mentioned here remains alive although it is living on borrowed time. I continue to believe the ultimate low remains in front of us. Retail and consumer discretionary stocks have been the latest to take it on the chin with a slew of poor earnings from Macy’s Nordstroms, etc. This sector is one of my key vital four groups and it’s important for the bull market’s health to keep the majority of them moving forward. While I do […]
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Date: May 13, 2016
Here Comes the Bounce
The major stock market indices staged an impressive comeback on Friday as they all reversed early losses to close nicely higher. Given the very orderly pullback along with some modest losses of roughly 3% except in the NASDAQ, the odds now favor the bulls stepping up right here for at least a short-term bounce. Should the bounce materialize, the next question will be if it’s a bounce all the way to new highs or just back towards 18,000 before rolling […]
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Date: May 9, 2016
