Watching the Bounce
Thursday’s shellacking in the stock market was a bit unusual given how close in time stocks were to all time highs. As I mentioned in Street$marts, my screen was a complete sea of red except for the instruments that go up when stocks go down. As I have over said over and over and over, based on history, the bull market remains alive. In the short-term, it looks like the best case for the bulls would be a few days […]
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Date: August 1, 2014
2nd Fed Trend a Success… Pullback is Here
Yesterday, I wrote about the Fed statement day trends. History suggested, a pre announcement market of +-0.50% which was spot on with the day closing green; it closed neutral. Today, the post Fed model called for lower prices which is spot on as well. This is all in the context of the pullback I forecast two days ago. Today’s action so far is nasty with my entire screen red except for the items that go up during a down market. […]
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Date: July 31, 2014
Fed Statement Day Trend
That certainly felt like a quick six weeks since the Fed’s last statement day and press conference! Today, Yellen & Co. conclude their two day meeting with a statement to be released at 2:00 pm est and no press conference. As has been the case since the first taper last December, the Fed will reduce their assets purchases by another $10 billion to $25 billion per month on their to wrapping up quantitative easing this fall. There has been a […]
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Date: July 30, 2014
Beginning to Feel Like a Pullback
As you know, I have been uber bullish on stocks here for a long while. It’s time to temporarily temper that enthusiasm for the market to repair a bit of short-term damage. I DO NOT BELIEVE THE BULL MARKET IS OVER! Sorry to yell, but I know that is going to be the first question I get. From my seat the bull market remains reasonably healthy, albeit old and wrinkly, and should live on into 2015 with much higher prices […]
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Date: July 29, 2014
Something for the Bears to Hang their Hats on
The Dow hit yet another all time high today and there hasn’t been a 10%+ correction in 35 months. When stocks opened sharply lower on July 10th, the bears came roaring out of hibernation calling for everything from a 10% correction to the end of the bull market. It was a sea of ugly red prices on my screen due to Portuguese bank worries, and weak China data. That decline didn’t even last a full day. Nor did the decline […]
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Date: July 16, 2014
Bears Out of Hibernation
Stocks open the day with the largest down opening in some time due to Portuguese bank problems, slowing Eurozone concerns and less than stellar data out of China. As hard to believe as it is, I have already seen a few articles calling this the beginning of a new bear market. Geez, how many time have we heard that over the past 64 months! What we are seeing now is a routine, healthy and normal 3-7% pullback. Short-term downside risk […]
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Date: July 10, 2014
No Inflation Seen in Energy Prices
With the various global tensions impacting the energy market, I thought it was appropriate to write a few articles about crude oil and how viewing different time horizons yield very different opinions. This is part I to be followed by part II next week. To begin with, energy and more specifically, crude oil, has an enormous impact on the global economy. From common sense items like heating our homes and powering our cars to more derivative things like chemicals and […]
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Date: July 8, 2014
Bull Market’s Peak
The stock market hits the new week with a tiny headwind from post holiday seasonality. Last Thursday’s solid employment report finally got at least some bulls to celebrate, but it’s still very muted. At Dow 17,000 after a 10,000 point rally in the market, you would think that the majority would be in a good mood, even giddy. But that’s just not the case. Before the bull market ends, history suggests a 10%+ correction, which we haven’t seen yet. And […]
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Date: July 7, 2014
Dow 18,000 Next as Twitter, Investors, Advisors and Media Root for Bears
Small Caps Play Catch Up in BIG Way When we last left off, the major stock market indices were all playing nicely together except for the small cap Russell 2000 which had seen a full fledged 10% correction, but was beginning to bounce. The performance of that one index was a key ingredient to the bears’ negative stance on the market. At that time, here and on the blog, I dismissed the Russell’s warning and went so far as to […]
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Date: July 7, 2014
Squawk Box @ 6:05am Monday
Looking forward to joining Joe, Becky and Andrew at 6:05am on Monday discussing the Dow hitting my 17,000 target (18K is next), Thursday’s solid employment report and what’s in store for the second half of 2014. If you would like to be notified by email when a new post is made here, please sign up, HERE.
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Date: July 6, 2014
