Bulls Step Up and Continue Delivering -That Was Fun
I hope you enjoyed a nice three-day holiday weekend and everyone who observed had a great Christmas! Although many Jews head for Chinese food and the movies we have been fortunate enough to be included with Vermont friends and their Christmas feast. This year definitely did not disappoint as I was full after cocktails and appetizers and then had to scarf down my fair share of prime rib and a cornucopia of desserts that would make any foodie drool. I […]
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Date: December 26, 2021
Stock Market Bottom Hammered In – Year-End Rally SUPPOSED To Run
Well, well, well. Just when the bulls got to the point of no return, not really but it sounds good, they staved off a losing battle with the bears. Funny how that happens sometimes. If you watched my interviews on Yahoo Finance or TDA Network, I was pretty firm that I still thought stocks were bottoming right now and the year-end rally would still come albeit in an underwhelming fashion. And that how I played it with portfolios as we […]
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Date: December 22, 2021
Stock Market Not Doing What It Is “Supposed” To Do
The stock market ended last week on a sour note and looks to begin the new week on an equally sour note. For weeks I have written that something just ain’t right. I still feel that way although I still believe a low will be forged, well, right about now for a year-end rally. Small cap stocks are basically at their lowest point since Q1 2021 and mid cap stocks aren’t that far behind. I didn’t think this would happen […]
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Date: December 20, 2021
Fed Trend Shines But I Have Concerns
The worst kept secret was that the Fed was going to speed up its plan to taper asset purchases and that was announced on Wednesday. Jay Powell conducted the perfect press conference for the stock market and the bulls went home with huge smiles on their faces. I tweeted a few times and posted here that the FOMC trend was as strong as it ever gets for buying -.50% weakness in the morning and selling at the close. That tidy […]
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Date: December 16, 2021
Fed Announcement Day – Bulls On Their Heels
The FOMC concludes their two-day meeting today where they are expected to announce a faster taper plan with more interest rate hikes in 2022. This is something that should have been started 15 months ago when the inflation genie was fully out of the bottle. Jay Powell & Company are now fighting a different and tougher fight that will likely lead to an economic slowdown during the second half of 2022. My readers are certainly not surprised. After all, I […]
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Date: December 15, 2021
Inflation Peaking – Bulls Need to Step Up This Week
Last Friday the government released the Consumer Price Index which showed the highest inflation since 1981, 6.8%. I don’t think anyone in the U.S. would deny that inflation has been strong and rising for more than a year. Heck, it has been a theme of mine since the summer of 2020. As usual, the Fed has been behind the curve, insisting that it was “transitory”, whatever that really means. Powell & Company assured the country that it was nothing to […]
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Date: December 14, 2021
Bulls Best Not Fail Here
After two strong days for the bulls, the stock market took a breather on Wednesday and Thursday with the now important Consumer Price Index scheduled to be released on Friday morning. It should be a market mover and I am most keen on seeing reaction from long-term treasuries. Although it is a powerfully bullish time of year and the bulls certainly proved their mettle off of the recent lows, it would be significantly bearish for stocks to fail right here […]
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Date: December 10, 2021
Bulls Dominate
Well, well, well, the bulls certainly made some noise over the first two days of the week. I imagine the bears were not too concerned after Monday’s big bounce, but Tuesday likely induced the pain trade and forced many to reign in their bearishness. And if you recall from Monday’s post, that was precisely when there was a surge in bearish sentiment from the AAII survey. In the NASDAQ 100, a chart I posted the other day, price was right […]
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Date: December 8, 2021
Bears Surge – Stocks Still Looking For a Low
On Friday, yet again, the employment report laid a big egg as the economy created 210,000 new jobs versus the 600,000 that was expected. That is not good folks. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, even though the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%. Those are both good signs. Yep, it’s as clear as mud. My thesis has been that November, December and into Q1 2022 would see a sharp increase in economic activity and strong jobs numbers. […]
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Date: December 6, 2021
Stocks Bounced and Declined – What Now? Omicron Not to Blame
Let me start out by reiterating what I have been offering for the past 5 weeks. Inflation is in the process of peaking. In late October with the good folks at Yahoo Finance, I was very firm about looking for inflation to peak between November and March. Few have joined my party which is A-Okay with me. It won’t even make my top 10 list of concerns for 2022. And with that, supply chain issues are no more by the […]
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Date: December 3, 2021
