***Q2 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. Let’s dive right in, be upfront and recognize that Q2 was a very challenging quarter in almost every asset class and across the spectrum with poor performance at a level not seen since Q1 2020. In fact, although the stock market did not […]
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Date: August 5, 2022
High Yield Bonds Join The Party – FINALLY!
Until the last few weeks, I had been complaining about high yield’s lack of enthusiasm off the June lows. The sector had looked like death. I am sure part my bemoaning was that the fact that we have been legging into the high yield sector since June to get fully fully invested. Below I show you two different ways to view junk bonds, through an ETF and a mutual fund, let me also say that because these bonds pay high […]
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Date: August 3, 2022
Dog Days of August
I can’t believe it’s already August. I am not ready for the countdown to end summer, even though ski season may only be 100 or so days away. I like wearing shorts, tee shirts and flip flops. Where has the year gone? Can we slow down a bit? July’s market action was a whole lot more fun for the bulls than June, May, April, etc. The S&P 500 was up more than 9% and the bond market rallied by 2.5%. […]
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Date: August 1, 2022
Recession?!?! – NOT
Let’s start with my conclusion. The U.S. is not in recession as I think I have stated every month this year. Yes, I know the government just released its first look at Q2 GDP and it was negative for the second straight quarter. And if you consult Webster’s dictionary, that’s the definition of recession. But since when is Webster the end all be all arbiter? Lots of pundits believe the U.S. is already in recession. I have not been among […]
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Date: July 29, 2022
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Pivot on the Way, No Recession Yet***
Let’s start with the market info of the day. It’s Fed announcement day and the market usually trades plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then volatility expands and we get a big move, usually to the upside. With the pre-market strong, much work looks to already be done. Because the last two days were weak that strengthened the trend today to a large degree and on Twitter you saw the additional positions taken. Jay Powell and the rest of […]
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Date: July 27, 2022
Dizzying Week Ahead
With the biggest earnings week of the season including Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft and UPS, the FOMC announcement on Wednesday and first look at Q2 GDP on Thursday, this is going to be a super busy week. Heading into the weekend, S&P 4000 or so looked to be a logical pause point for the stock market as I wrote here. Stocks have had a nice bounce off the June bottom and a breather will not be the worst thing in […]
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Date: July 25, 2022
Bulls Firmly in Control But 4000 Should Start Pause
The stock market is having a good week. The nasty reversal on Monday didn’t even give the bears satisfaction for 24 hours. It turned out to be a trap and stocks immediately soared higher again. Below is an update of the chart I posted last week with price filling in for where I had my light blue lines to generally forecast the next few weeks. S&P 4000 is within reach and that would fill the remaining gap left from the […]
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Date: July 22, 2022
Finally a Surge in Buying Interest
Don’t look now, but the bulls have scored two big up days in the last three days with an intervening reversal on Monday. We are finally seeing a surge in buying interest as the many of the major indices attempt to exceed their late June highs. If successful that would be higher highs and higher lows. If I am wrong and the bear market is about to resume we should see immediate failure by the bulls. The S&P 500 is […]
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Date: July 20, 2022
The News is Awful
The news this week has been putrid, like Tiger Woods’ golf at the British Open. CPI was hot. PPI was hot. Talk has turned to a full 1% rate hike by the Fed on July 27th. Bank earnings hasn’t been very good so far except for Citibank. Yet, as I write this before lunch the S&P 500 is down a little more than 1% this week. The NASDAQ 100 is down even less. With all that bad news, the casual […]
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Date: July 15, 2022
Feeling HOT, HOT HOT
On Tuesday I saw a tweet quoting someone in the Biden Administration as saying that today’s inflation data had “stale” energy prices in it. To me that meant he had already seen the report and was prepping the markets and people for a hot CPI today. The stock market hung in nicely on Tuesday until the lunchtime lull turned into the afternoon plunge. All in all, it still wasn’t an awful day. The government released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) […]
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Date: July 13, 2022
