Dotcom Era Euphoria Doesn’t Mean Imminent Bear Market
The short answer is yes. Epic greed and euphoria remain in the markets. Bitcoin may have mildly pulled back and Tesla hasn’t made a new high this week, but that won’t correct what is the single worst sentiment backdrop since the Dotcom Bubble. However, unlike the Dotcom era, the stock market’s foundation remains fairly solid. Recall that when the Dotcom stocks soared, they were the only game in town. The vast majority of stocks peaked in May 1998. Today, the […]
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Date: January 13, 2021
All Smart Eyes on the Dollar – Top 15 Resolutions Video is Up
As you know, I offered my full Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 on Fox61 last week and I actually sped through the entire list. Over the weekend I made a video of that list and went into more detail on each of the resolutions. Here it is below. Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 Since Friday’s blog post, there is nothing that has changed any of my thinking regarding the markets. Stocks look like they will open down by […]
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Date: January 11, 2021
Easy Money and Fun
So far in this young year, we have seen a new variant of highly contagious COVID, a blue sweep in Georgia resulting in unified government in DC and a massive protest gone awry with the United States’ Capitol being stormed by lunatics and destructive people. If I read you those headlines from Japan, Germany or Brazil and asked you to guess how their stock markets were performing, I think it is safe to say those most would estimate at least […]
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Date: January 8, 2021
What Santa Claus, Q4 and 2020 Say About 2021’s Market Return
In November and December the media was all abuzz with the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) and January Effect. Now that the SCR has ended and there is a result, no one seems to care about it. That’s very typical. If you are keeping score at home, the SCR which is technically the final five trading days of the year and first two of the new year, yielded +1%. Revisiting Yale Hirsch’s old adage, “Should Santa Claus fail to call, bears […]
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Date: January 6, 2021
The First Downside Catalyst of 2021 – Georgia on My Mind
Here we are in 2021 and nothing has changed as the calendar turned. The stock market remains in an epic state of greed and euphoria, the likes of which we haven’t seen since the Dotcom era although January 2017 and 2018 as well as Q4 2019 were close. The market’s foundation was very solid, but there are a number of cracks appearing the lead me to believe we will see at least a short, sharp pullback of 4-8% in Q1. […]
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Date: January 4, 2021
Pay Attention – January Has The Most Stock Market Trends of The Year
Welcome to 2021! I hope you had a safe and at least a semi-enjoyable New Year’s. After a delicious dish of langostinos with squid ink pasta in a spicy sauce that I think had some bacon and an amazing 2007 Shafer Relentless, I fell asleep on the couch from 8 to 10pm. When I awoke, the Shafer was long gone and my son and I started watching some random show that turned out to be really great and highly recommended. […]
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Date: January 2, 2021
Calendar FINALLY Turning to 2021 – Careful What You Wish For
If you’re keeping score at home Santa and L5 are +1.13% with L5 ending today. There is a very specific trend for which major stock market indices are suppose to be owned next week which I will share. Today is the last day to realize capital gains and losses for 2020. We have harvested as many losses as we can for 2020 already. In hindsight, we should have been even more proactive early in 2020 during the Corona Crash. As […]
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Date: December 31, 2020
Greed & Euphoria Still Present – Foundation Beginning to Crumble
It’s odd that stocks look tired at this time of year. The normal trend is to see a mild and gentle drift higher into January, and perhaps that is what we are seeing if you just look at price action. However, the stock market’s foundation which I have called solid and strong has and is weakening. At best, it is now neutral. Neutral by itself is okay if market sentiment is supportive. The problem is that we now have more […]
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Date: December 30, 2020
Santa Claus’ Time to Call – L5 Results From Paul
Historically, as I have been mentioning for weeks, the market is in the midst of one of the most favorable times of the year. The big picture is positive seasonality from November 1 through April 30 with November and December being especially strong. More granular, late December through early January is even better. And the traditional Santa Claus Rally (SCR) began at the close of trading on December 23rd. That’s five trading days before year-end and the first two trading […]
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Date: December 28, 2020
Top Year-End Financial Tips for 2020
Well, my segment on Fox 61 did not go as planned. My scheduled time got pushed back right into a hard commercial stop and I wasn’t able to offer one of my favorite lists. Instead of crying and breaking my desk, like I did when the Jets won a meaningless football game on Sunday and lost the next great quarterback to come into the NFL, I did the next best thing. I made my own video of my Top Year-End […]
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Date: December 23, 2020
