Jobs Report Lays Another Egg
The August Nonfarm Payrolls Report was released at 8:30am today. Boy, was it another stinker relative to what was expected. 235,000 new jobs were created, embarrassingly below the 750,000 that was expected. However, the unemployment rate did tick lower by .2%. No matter what spin the Biden administration puts out, the economy continues to have its dislocations and struggles. That’s indisputable. “But Paul, 235,000 new jobs is good, right?” In a vacuum, it is. However at this stage of the […]
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Date: September 3, 2021
Beware September – Or So The Uninformed Say
I can’t believe summer ends this weekend. What a crummy summer it has been in New England, especially the weekends. It’s not fair. It’s not fair. It’s not fair. As the calendar turns plenty of pundits have been discussing that September is historically the worst month of the year for stocks. That’s is factually correct. Depending on which year you cherry pick the starting date, September averages a negative return of -1.10% since 1928. However, the devil is really in […]
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Date: September 1, 2021
Powell to the Rescue!
Boy, I did not expect such a bullish market reaction to Jay Powell’s 10am speech on Friday. Powell did not say anything outside the norm, but the market interpreted it as being more dovish, even though the taper is in full view now. I guess people did not believe Powell had strong tapering conviction, even though the Fed paraded out no less than five regional bank presidents who were all lined up for the taper to be announced in September […]
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Date: August 30, 2021
Huge Market Day w/ Powell & Inflation
All summer, Fed watchers have been pointing to August 27 at 10am, for that was when Chair Jay Powell would deliver his keynote remarks at the Fed’s annual spa retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. FYI, the conference has been moved to virtual and Powell’s speech will be televised nationally. Heading up to the speech, Fed heads have been paraded out with a common theme and message. It’s time to taper. It’s time to announce the reduction of asset purchases which […]
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Date: August 27, 2021
No Key Sectors Supporting Bulls
The stock market begins the new week looking to continue to bounce back from the mild pullback last week. As I have written before, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have barely seen any weakness, but the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have seen meaningful pullbacks over the past few months. In what would be the most unlikely of scenarios, it would be super interesting and surprising if the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 gathered themselves for a run to […]
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Date: August 23, 2021
Tech Holding Up Indices, For Now
Of course, a hurricane is coming to New England this weekend. After years of denying we needed a generator, I took the plunge in March, only to find out that one tiny part was on back order until June. Then it was July and now August. Lucky me, the part came in this week, but the electrician cannot do the install because he is busy getting generators ready for the storm. So, I am sure that we will lose power […]
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Date: August 20, 2021
Market Not Running on All Cylinders
I keep chuckling when I listen to people talk about the pullback in stocks. After all folks, the S&P 500 is one single day removed from all-time highs. Same for the Dow Industrials. The NASDAQ 100 is close. The S&P 400 and Russell 2000 continue to lag and warn that something isn’t right. However, none of my key sectors are at or close to new highs, another warning sign. Ask me which sectors are at new relative highs. Go ahead. […]
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Date: August 18, 2021
Lots of Warning Signs Remain But Geopolitics Isn’t Among Them
I have read a number of articles comparing Kabul falling to Saigon falling in 1975. In both cases the markets were nonplussed and behaved within the realm of normalcy. That’s where we are today. Stocks look to open lower, but nothing out of the ordinary. The markets have bigger warnings as I have been discussing for weeks that to worry about an event halfway around the world that has zero economic significance. Regardless of how you felt about our presence […]
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Date: August 16, 2021
Markets Continue to React Counterintuitively to Inflation
As you know my thinking regarding inflation has changed over the past few months following the reports released in May and June. Both of those showed white hot inflation with very counterintuitive market reaction. By that, I mean that the securities that should have fallen hard actually rallied and vice versa. After the April report was released in mid-May I thought it was just an anomaly, but back to back odd reactions had me rethinking my thesis. Take a look […]
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Date: August 13, 2021
***Q2 Client Update*** – Excerpts
Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop right now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. It seemed like yesterday when every piece of news was dark and uncertain. People were acutely concerned about their survival and less about their finances. 2020 was a year where time almost stood still. 2021 could not have been any more the […]
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Date: August 11, 2021
