Market Scaring Out the Weak Holders Ahead of Halloween
I have the election 2020 and its market impact webinar tonight so I will keep this brief. I think you can still sign up, but we may be at capacity by now. Stocks digested the recent decline on Tuesday and a number of positives started popping up, including the narrowest intra-day range of any day of the past 7 days. In technical terms that is the ole NR7. Trading activity continued on the quiet side and the stock market is […]
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Date: October 28, 2020
Line in the Sand – Market Following Change of Power in DC
On Friday I wrote about the risk/reward favoring the bulls. That was because stocks had pulled back to an area where they should entice money into stocks. But if that thesis was wrong, the downside was relatively limited versus the potential upside. My line in the sand was a close below last week’s low. You can see this in the chart below depicted by the two blue, horizontal lines. That’s a set up I would take at every juncture. This […]
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Date: October 26, 2020
Risk/Reward Favors the Bulls
The major stock market indices have pulled back to interesting junctures. The risk/reward now favors the upside as long as prices do not close below the low for this week. That’s not much to risk on the downside. While the S&P 400 and Russell 2000 have been leading I would like to see some strength from the NASDAQ 100 well before October 29 which the a huge earnings date for mega tech. On the sector front, leadership is very mixed […]
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Date: October 23, 2020
Lack of Volatility More Likely
Last week, I wrote about a little trading range and a larger one. On Monday, the small range broke down, followed by a pause on Tuesday. In the very short-term, the bears should be able to push stocks lower below Monday’s low. The real range is bound by the September high and low. As I keep mentioning in the media, the pundits are and have been dead wrong concerning stock market volatility in an incumbent election year. Stocks are absolutely […]
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Date: October 21, 2020
Bulls Hit the Wall But Path of Least Resistance Remains Higher
The bulls ran into a little trouble on Friday afternoon and gave up all of their gains and then some. Unless we see downside follow through on Monday I am not going to be too concerned. We have a small trading range bound by last week’s high and low. We have a bigger range bound by the high and low of September. Everything in between is just noise. The stock market is at an interesting crossroad regarding leadership. We have […]
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Date: October 19, 2020
Lines in the Sand – Semis Strong
After opening down more than 1% on Thursday, the bulls stepped up as the perceived “value” was too much to ignore after a few straight down days for stocks. We now have two very nice and tidy, short-term lines in the sand. They are bound by this week’s low and high. It’s that simple. Closing above or below those prices should induce more movement in that direction. For now, the bulls are supposed to run prices to the upper blue […]
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Date: October 16, 2020
Broad Participation in the Rally
I want to thank those of you who attended our webinar on Monday night where I reviewed Q3 performance and events as well as offered a sneak peak into Q4 and the election. I am in the process of scheduling a webinar based solely on the election and its market impact. The bulls finally took a breather on Tuesday after a solid run, even in the face of seasonal tailwinds. I still do not get the feeling they are done […]
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Date: October 14, 2020
Bulls Continue to Press Higher
The bulls continued their winning ways to end the week on Friday although it wasn’t as lopsided as the previous two days. There are some conflicting seasonal trends this week with Columbus Day and October expiration having tailwinds with the second five day period of October being a headwind. After seeing underperformance since the early September peak, mega cap tech is trying to regain leadership and that could be a story right into the next stock market. It will be […]
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Date: October 12, 2020
Bulls Running Hot
As you know my thesis has been for one more decline into mid to late October below the recent lows and then a rally into 2021. That was my number one scenario. My second scenario had the mid-September low being the bottom and the market remaining uber strong. Until this week, I felt confident in my view. Now, I have to be open that my less likely scenario may come to fruition. Why? The rally this week has been powerful […]
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Date: October 9, 2020
Lots Going on Beneath the Surface
I guess no one can be surprised that an unexpected tweet from President Trump threw the market for a loop. Certainly, that wasn’t in my forecast nor list of reasons why stocks would fall one more time. For the most part, emotional reversals like Tuesday have been immediately reversed since the bull market began in March. Only a close below Tuesday’s lowest levels would confirm that the decline is in full gear to the bottom I see forming later this […]
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Date: October 7, 2020
