Warren Buffet Hangover as Bulls Prepare
The bears had a nice close to last week and to begin the new month. I posted a number of studies regarding May and the next 6 months on Friday. The overall theme is that the longer we look out into the future, the more positive the studies. The shorter we look, at least as of last week, the less positive they get. However, in the really short-term, if today is down, which would be the third straight down day, […]
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Date: May 4, 2020
May Begins With a Number of Studies as the Bulls Get Knocked a Bit
On Friday, the stock market technically begins the sometimes “dreaded” sell in May and go away period which last until October 31. This seasonal trend has a questionable track record the more recent you look. However, in years where January through April has been down already, its record has merit. I will touch more on this in the upcoming issue of Street$marts due out shortly. The first trading day of May has an enviably bullish track record, not so much […]
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Date: May 1, 2020
Bulls Seizing the Moment – Junk Bonds Not
On Monday I wrote about the Lines in the Sand that were drawn for both bull and bear. On Tuesday we saw the bulls celebrate with a breach to the upside that could not hold until the close. Today, the bulls are testing the upward bounds again, likely with very different results by the time the day ends. What’s been eating at me lately is high yield bonds as you can see below. They were behaving “fine” until the Fed […]
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Date: April 29, 2020
Bulls & Bears Draw Lines in the Sand
Stocks ended last week with a three day rally that looks to be built upon this morning. The major indices continue to trade in the range I outlined several weeks ago as the likely first bounce. What I did not envision was stocks getting into that range and then essentially going sideways. Historically, that has bullish implications. The first chart below is the S&P 500 on a daily basis so you can see the first bounce range of between 1/2 […]
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Date: April 27, 2020
Airlines Stocks Look Awful While Stock Market Risk Clearly Defined
Yesterday, I wrote about my anger and disgust regarding the airline bailout. That won’t change anytime soon. Today, I want to look at the group and how they have been trading. Below you can see a chart of the airlines as represented by the JETS ETF. Besides declining 65% from high to low since the market’s peak, notice how little green is on the chart. Green days mean the closing price is that much higher than the opening price. Red […]
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Date: April 24, 2020
Angry & Disgusted
Last week, the government announced a deal with the 10 major airlines in the U.S. for outright grants as well as low interest, long-term loans. The government gets very little in return. As you know, I have been imploring the government to do the unfathomable, the unthinkable since early March. Whatever number they had in mind for workers and small business, it wasn’t enough. I also had the utmost confidence that Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, and Fed Chair, Jay Powell, […]
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Date: April 23, 2020
Oil Trades Below – Dow 40,000???
The oil market has made headlines this year and especially this week with crude oil trading negatively for the first time in history. Yes; you read that correctly. May crude oil closed at -$37 on Monday. However, before you start running out to get paid to own oil, I put together this video to explain what is going on and if the retail investor can take advantage of the crash. If you would rather read a short blog post about […]
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Date: April 22, 2020
RMDs Waived But Mortgage Rates Not Following Bond Market
Recently, I wrote about the April 15 tax filing date being extended to July 15 and the presumption that contributions earmarked for 2019 would also be extended. The IRS confirmed that this week. I also wrote about converting your Traditional IRA to a ROTH IRA, something everyone should consider. Additionally, the recently passed $2 trillion CARES Act did something that I do not believe has ever been done before. It waived the need for people over the age of 70 […]
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Date: April 21, 2020
Fill Your Cars, Top Your Tanks
As we enter a new week and “things” are calming ever so slightly incrementally, crude oil is the story of the overnight as the front month, May, expires and is in total collapse. This is not what it seems on the surface. Yes, crude oil is down sharply again, but the 30% crash has more to do with structure of the commodity contract than a real crash. I need to choose my words carefully and not overwhelm you with lingo. […]
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Date: April 20, 2020
Dow 40,000 Coming But Rest of 2020 Likely Not A Layup
During the vast majority of the bull market from 2009 to 2020, I was always among the most bullish people giving forecasts. I always kidded my buddy Tony Dwyer, market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, that he was the second most bullish person in the industry. I fondly remember Joe Kernen of CNBC Squawk Box fame laughing when I called the Dow to go from 14,000 to 18,000. My 20,000 target was equally dismissed. In late 2016, our model first opened […]
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Date: April 17, 2020
