BEWARE! – Stocks (Gamestop) Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent
The stock market looks to open bright red today, something we haven’t seen in a while. Are short-term traders prepared? No way. I am guessing that even a mild to modest single digit decline will have most of them under their desks, sucking their thumbs in the fetal position. Look, the market has seen epic greed and euphoria since early November. However, the foundation of the market has been very solid until the past week. The theme over the past […]
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Date: January 27, 2021
Sentiment Remains Ripe – Foundation Rock Solid
As I did my weekend review, it was apparent that all five major stock market indices were perfectly in sync, something that has been the case on and off since the bull market began. Usually, it has been the Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000, but today, the Dow Industrials are a little off. I do not believe this is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. As you know I have been writing about the epic level […]
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Date: January 25, 2021
A Crack in the Pavement
Sitting here on Inauguration Day watching the markets shoot to new highs, I found myself complaining that so many of our positions were not participating in the rally that saw the major indices higher by 1.50% to 2.50%. That is unusual behavior. Now, I am not talking about the major indices we own like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Of course, they did fine. I am referring to our sector holdings and individual stocks. When I looked closer at […]
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Date: January 21, 2021
***Q4 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very brief quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop reading here. The year where time stood still and just wouldn’t end has finally come to a close. It was certainly a year that will live in infamy. Most importantly, I am grateful that you and our other clients survived. 2020 was one of those generational years that made an indelible […]
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Date: January 20, 2021
How Stocks Fare on Inauguration Day & Beyond
Wednesday is Inauguration Day (ID), a time of supposed new beginnings and a fresh start for the country. The truth of the matter is that stocks have been behaving as if there has been a new administration since the day after Election Day which they typically do. That’s how the four-year Presidential Cycle works in the markets. The markets don’t wait until January 20th and then realize there is a new sheriff in town. Intuitively, you would think that with […]
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Date: January 19, 2021
Pullback is Here – Foundation Strong
The stock market looks to open mildly lower and the media is blaming incoming President Biden’s recently unveiled $1.9 trillion spending bill. Yet again, that is pure and utter nonsense. The market already knew his plan would be in the trillions and that it is already dead on arrival in its current form. It’s almost as if any down day needs an explanation as they are no longer allowed. Since October 30th when I pounded the table that this was […]
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Date: January 15, 2021
Dotcom Era Euphoria Doesn’t Mean Imminent Bear Market
The short answer is yes. Epic greed and euphoria remain in the markets. Bitcoin may have mildly pulled back and Tesla hasn’t made a new high this week, but that won’t correct what is the single worst sentiment backdrop since the Dotcom Bubble. However, unlike the Dotcom era, the stock market’s foundation remains fairly solid. Recall that when the Dotcom stocks soared, they were the only game in town. The vast majority of stocks peaked in May 1998. Today, the […]
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Date: January 13, 2021
All Smart Eyes on the Dollar – Top 15 Resolutions Video is Up
As you know, I offered my full Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 on Fox61 last week and I actually sped through the entire list. Over the weekend I made a video of that list and went into more detail on each of the resolutions. Here it is below. Top 15 Financial Resolutions for 2021 Since Friday’s blog post, there is nothing that has changed any of my thinking regarding the markets. Stocks look like they will open down by […]
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Date: January 11, 2021
Easy Money and Fun
So far in this young year, we have seen a new variant of highly contagious COVID, a blue sweep in Georgia resulting in unified government in DC and a massive protest gone awry with the United States’ Capitol being stormed by lunatics and destructive people. If I read you those headlines from Japan, Germany or Brazil and asked you to guess how their stock markets were performing, I think it is safe to say those most would estimate at least […]
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Date: January 8, 2021
What Santa Claus, Q4 and 2020 Say About 2021’s Market Return
In November and December the media was all abuzz with the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) and January Effect. Now that the SCR has ended and there is a result, no one seems to care about it. That’s very typical. If you are keeping score at home, the SCR which is technically the final five trading days of the year and first two of the new year, yielded +1%. Revisiting Yale Hirsch’s old adage, “Should Santa Claus fail to call, bears […]
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Date: January 6, 2021
