A Change in Tune? Decline Unfolding?
It would be impossible for any of my readers to not know my theme of epic greed and euphoria in the financial markets since late last year. Yet, stocks keep forging ahead, almost unabated except for a very brief 4% pullback a few weeks ago. Make no mistake about it, a sentiment landscape like this is not going to end well. To be crystal clear, excessive risk taking is going to be severely punished. Please do not email me with […]
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Date: February 22, 2021
Another Opp For The Bulls
Stocks have pulled back so mildly over the past few days with the Russell 2000, S&P 400 and NASDAQ 100 leading the way. Yet, there is a short-term buying opportunity in the stock market as today is an expiration day. Those indices that fell that hardest are supposed to bounce the most and likely to new highs. The key will be if one or more do not. That would be an opportunity to further prune and move away from the […]
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Date: February 19, 2021
Now It’s About Rates
The yield on long-dated treasuries is set to jump this morning and the pundits are all over this. You can see in the chart below that the 10-Year Treasury Note has gone from almost 2% a year ago to 0.40% at the height of the Corona Crash in March to almost 1.30% today. That is hardly a surge in long-term interest rates and a gross exaggeration that equity investors are going to eschew stocks for bonds. But yet, we have […]
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Date: February 16, 2021
SPACs the New Dotcom
It’s rare when my blog topics become the same day after day after day. I force myself to think if I am being lazy or there really is nothing new to write about. Perhaps some days, it is a combination of both. The major stock market indices continue to grind higher. Nothing new. My four key sectors, banks, semis, discretionary and transports are not all in sync at new highs, but they are all rallying. High yield bonds are at […]
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Date: February 10, 2021
It’s Confirmed. I Was Wrong
As you know, my thesis has been for an absolute minimum 4-8% pullback in Q1 to at least move the sentiment needle from greed and euphoric to neutral. Well, Mr. Market gave us the bare minimum 4% decline, but not only did it not repair anything, it has actually made the landscape even worse. Rather than weak handed investors selling, it seems like anyone not involved in the Gamestop Saga bought the decline. That was a bit of a surprise. […]
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Date: February 8, 2021
Am I Wrong?
Thankfully, the markets are calming down from the Gamestop Saga, but it is hard to believe that the whole thing is over. It may be over for the current stocks, but there should be others. And my experience says that the outcome will not be the same and the little guy will be hurt. I just do not believe that the hedge funds and big money will be fooled again. And neither will the platforms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. […]
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Date: February 4, 2021
Bottom Not In But Pullback Is Buyable
I have put enough content out on the Gamestop Saga, between the blog and video and I am sure the vast majority of people are tired of reading about it. So, I will leave that alone for now. Stocks did not close last week or the month of January well. And for that matter, they didn’t close the day of Friday well either. But today is a new week and month and there is a strong trend for the stock […]
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Date: February 1, 2021
Just The 4-8% Pullback
After a quick little bloodbath on Wednesday, stocks saw a feeble bounce on Thursday with another rollover to the downside looking to be the case on Friday. I would be shocked if Wednesday was the low to buy for a run to new highs. The most likely scenario has stocks making new lows for the week and that spills over into next week. This should be the 4-8% pullback in Q1 I have written about so often. I can only […]
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Date: January 29, 2021
BEWARE! – Stocks (Gamestop) Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent
The stock market looks to open bright red today, something we haven’t seen in a while. Are short-term traders prepared? No way. I am guessing that even a mild to modest single digit decline will have most of them under their desks, sucking their thumbs in the fetal position. Look, the market has seen epic greed and euphoria since early November. However, the foundation of the market has been very solid until the past week. The theme over the past […]
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Date: January 27, 2021
Sentiment Remains Ripe – Foundation Rock Solid
As I did my weekend review, it was apparent that all five major stock market indices were perfectly in sync, something that has been the case on and off since the bull market began. Usually, it has been the Nasdaq 100 or the Russell 2000, but today, the Dow Industrials are a little off. I do not believe this is a big deal in the grand scheme of things. As you know I have been writing about the epic level […]
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Date: January 25, 2021
