This Week is Usually Down
Friday saw another one of those “ugly on a chart” afternoon reversals as Apple announced a fresh round of store closings in the states that recently reopened. I am sure a lot of people saw the re-openings as easy and as expected, but the truth is much different. It is going to be lumpy and uneven with varying degrees of success and failure. One thing remains a certainty in my humble opinion; the U.S. economy will never be completely shut […]
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Date: June 22, 2020
Volatility Drops as Short-Term Sentiment Remains Frothy
The stock market has been relatively quiet the past few days. Don’t complain. While it’s a welcomed change, it’s also very normal and healthy to wring more volatility out of the market. Friday is one of the big quarterly expirations of options and futures so we can expect enormous volume right away. Depending on which source you believe, there is supposedly between $50 and $80 billion dollars of equities that needs to be sold. Looking at the non-NASDAQ major stock […]
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Date: June 18, 2020
It Didn’t Feel Like a Correction
From high to low on a closing basis the major stock market indices pulled back 7-12% over a three-day period ending last Thursday. On an intra-day basis, those figures are another percent or so more. It sure didn’t feel like a correction. It happened so quickly. But remember how compressed the stock market has become. Looking at the chart below of the Dow Industrials, we can see that the bout of weakness had the index decline to that horizontal, blue […]
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Date: June 17, 2020
2009 Still Giving Us Clues as Pullback Continues
After last Thursday’s drubbing, the bull did what they have done every time they have been threatened since the new bull market began in March. They rallied the stock market. On Friday, we saw a huge up opening that could not hold. Bears came in and sold the market into negative territory, only to see the bulls rally it back after lunch. This is classic sign of volatility and that there is a fierce fight going on. There are […]
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Date: June 15, 2020
Heritage Capital Launches New Website
Heritage Capital is pleased to announce the launch of our new and improved website! The new site went live on June 10. The fresh look and feel make it easier to find information, read about timely and important topics and contact us when you have a question. If you haven’t had a chance to check it out yet, please do. The easy-to-access navigation gives a clearer message of who we are, what it’s like to work with us and how […]
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Date: June 15, 2020
Market Got Its Excuse to Sell Off
Sorry for the delayed post and missing yesterday. We are migrating to a new host and new website and I got a little sidetracked. I am excited for our new website, www.investfortomorrow.com as well as a much better host. Truth is, if the new company, Digital Ocean, can even fog a mirror, they will be better than where we were for the past decade plus. I can’t even count how many times my email would go down or they would […]
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Date: June 11, 2020
Comparing This Bull Market Launch to 2009
Another new week begins, another pre-market rally in the stock market. I have to continue to say that the strength of the move is beyond unbelievable. I thought it was “unprecedented” until I looked deeper. When the trading range broke last month and I was expecting a possible fakeout, even if I was wrong, I didn’t think stocks would power ahead unabated like this. While people talk about this being “unprecedented”, that’s simply not true. When new bull markets launch, […]
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Date: June 8, 2020
WOW!
That was not supposed to be the headline for this morning. After yesterday I figured the employment numbers would be grim, but stocks would rally again because let’s face it; stocks have rallied on all bad news and pretty much all news. When the May employment report was released at 8:30am this morning, I thought it was a typo. I am sitting there watching it with an incredulous look on my face saying that it had to be wrong. How […]
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Date: June 5, 2020
Trading Range Ends But Bears Fail to Seize Control
Last week I updated my multi-month thesis that the stock market was in a trading range and to be on the lookout for a fake move whichever end was broken first. You can see that depicted in the chart below as stocks broke above the horizontal, blue line. So many times in history, the more obvious a pattern is in the markets and the more widely followed, the more likely the market is to confound the majority. It happens often, but for […]
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Date: June 3, 2020
Sentiment Percolating
Starting in the middle of November 2019, stock market sentiment went from bullish to giddy and then greedy before all was said and done. It had done that before in early 2017, 2018, mid-2011 and clearly during the Dotcom Bubble in 1999 and 2000. Sentiment alone is not a reason for markets to turn although we usually see that ingredient at extremes. Sentiment is also not a perfect timing tool. Remember the old adage that markets can stay irrational longer […]
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Date: June 1, 2020
