The Masses are Wrong! The Truth About Santa and the Last 5 Days of 2019
Let me begin by wishing all those who celebrate a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukah! Historically, the last two weeks of December is one of the most favorable times of the year and that lasts through early January. The traditional Santa Claus Rally (SCR) is scheduled to begin on Christmas Eve and last until the close on January 3rd. In other words, the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year. Remember the old […]
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Date: December 23, 2019
Stocks CREEP Higher – Waiting on Santa
Let’s start this article with the big picture. The bull market is alive and reasonably well and will live on into 2020. Next year will likely present some challenges, but we will cross that bridge when I start to work on my 2020 Fearless Forecast. One thing is for absolute sure in my opinion; there will be fireworks in 2020! For roughly a month, mostly on the blog, I had been discussing a stock market that was a little ahead […]
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Date: December 22, 2019
2019 A LOT Different from 2018 – Fedex Vomits on Itself
Stocks have really quieted down of late, but the bulls have been relentless. Each and every day seems like a slow drift higher. What has historically been a very reliable soft patch into mid-December is not arriving in 2019 or if I wanted to claim victory like those who can never be wrong, I would just say the two-day decline early in the month was it. That’s not exactly what I was looking for, but you always have to roll […]
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Date: December 18, 2019
Bulls Powering Through Short-Term Fatigue
With the Fed, UK elections, tariff deadline and impeachment seemingly all out of the way, stocks continue to forge ahead, even in the face of some short-term fatigue. That’s obviously bullish in and of itself. As I mentioned last week, it is very tough to see any kind of measurable selling this late in such a strong year. Something would really have to come out of left field. I have spent a good deal of time on small caps of […]
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Date: December 16, 2019
Small Cap Value FINALLY Breaks Out – Stocks Tired
Going in to this week, the markets had four big issue to deal with. The Fed, UK election, Dec 15 tariffs and impeachment. I really thought one of the first three would have caused one of those 1-3 day shakeouts into the usual mid-December low this or next week. That certainly hasn’t been the case and as I have said all along, I think impeachment is a just a media distraction and nothing to take seriously for the economy nor […]
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Date: December 13, 2019
Fed to Stand Pat – Still Operating on Powell’s Dramatic Change
What to Expect Today The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is going to do absolutely nothing today at 2:00pm regarding interest rates. The market is expecting nothing and nothing it will get. Any other action would be a total and complete shocker. In fact, at this point, the market isn’t pricing in any FOMC action until the very end of 2020 where a rate cut is expected. Keep in mind that market expectations even a quarter out don’t amount to […]
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Date: December 11, 2019
Small Stocks Continue to Look Interesting
For the past few weeks, I have been mentioning the action the Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks. Along with the S&P 400 index of mid cap stocks, this group has been lagging the returns of the more popular Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. I continue to believe the Russell’s fortunes are changing, if only for a short period of time. Below is a chart I have shown a few times before. It’s the Russell 2000 with the […]
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Date: December 9, 2019
Was That All?
On Wednesday, I wrote that stocks were supposed to bounce and not to be surprised if they regained all they lost a few days earlier. However, the odds did not favor the whole pullback/consolidation being over. I am still in that camp although with this morning’s much stronger than expected employment report and the pre-market surge, I guess I have to be open to the notion that the little bout of weakness is over. We will certainly see in the […]
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Date: December 6, 2019
3 in a Row for the Bears as ISM and Trump Give Aid
The bears are on a three day winning streak with Tuesday scoring the most points and the chorus growing louder that this is anything but a harmless little pullback. On Monday, the media chalked up the decline to the ISM survey which was disappointingly weak. If that was truly the case, why did bonds also sell off? If the economy was weakening, shouldn’t bonds have rallied? My good friend, Tony Dwyer (@dwyerstrategy), offered that the media reported a disappointing number […]
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Date: December 4, 2019
Lots of Action Across the Board – Stay Alert
Welcome back from Thanksgiving! I hope you had a safe, fun and meaningful holiday!! For me, I was very thankful to be alive after my mid-May mishap. As usual, I will have the various details of the Schatz Thanksgiving feast in an upcoming Street$marts. With 11 full months in the books, December trading starts today. The last month of the year is typically a very bullish one, especially when it begins in rally mode. 2018 was certainly an outlier that […]
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Date: December 1, 2019
