All-Time Highs Are Here. WHO KNEW?!?!
The S&P 500 is poised to open at fresh, all-time highs this morning. Absolutely none of my readers should be the least bit surprised. I have written about it every single week this entire year. And the stock market isn’t done. I have made fun of and called out the bears every step of the way to outcries of “BUT, BUT, BUT” whenever presented with facts. They hate. They disavow. They call for the end of the world. They have […]
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Date: October 28, 2019
Stock Market Quiet. Earnings Volatile. Semis Getting Ready to Soar
Greetings from Baltimore where I am doing a quick one night trip to visit with some clients and an old friend and former colleague. As always, there is great food and wine. If all goes well and Southwest delivers, I should be home for Blue Bloods tonight and get a good night’s sleep for our final weekend of baseball and softball. Stocks continue to trade very quietly this week, despite some wicked moves in individual stocks from earnings announcements. Twitter, […]
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Date: October 25, 2019
Lots of Negativity But Stocks Close to Blue Skies
Stocks begin the new week with the Dow Industrials masking the overall strength of the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100. Remember, the Dow only has 30 stocks and they are weighted by price. So, high prices stocks move the index a lot more than mid or lower priced ones. Boeing has been hit with the ugly stick for 40+ points over the past two days which equates to roughly 280 Dow points. While the Dow has stalled out with a […]
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Date: October 21, 2019
Junk Bonds & the A/D Line Say All is Okay
From open to close, stocks have traded in a narrow range most of this week and around the same level each day except for Tuesday. As the old highs in the Dow Industrials, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have come into reach, investors are pausing as they usually do to assess risk and reward. While I do not think it’s a layup for a breakout right here, I feel very confident that Dow 28,000 will be kissed this quarter with […]
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Date: October 18, 2019
Deal? What Deal???
I am sure I am not the only one who is really skeptical about this “trade deal” with China being real. While I am sure the two parties agreed on some items, we are so far from a real deal, signed, sealed and delivered. This doesn’t even sound like an agreement in principle since the Chinese have a different recollection and their state run news service tells their own story. This saga is far from over. The stock market was […]
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Date: October 14, 2019
Bears Wrong, Again?
On Monday, I wrote about the bulls thwarting the bears with another low forming in the stock market. I also showed some of the fuel that was building up for higher prices in the form of very negative options traders who are usually wrong. Couple that with my Twitter feed turning negative and the bears ostracizing my bullish view, I felt pretty good that stocks would rally. And rally they have in short order, catching the masses off guard. I […]
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Date: October 11, 2019
Bulls Thwart Bears With Another Low
Last Wednesday as stocks had pulled back to the lower end of the recent trading range, I thought we were about to see a showdown between the bulls and the bears. That battle was fought one day later as an early morning mini-collapse triggered by a poor manufacturing number flushed out the sellers and allowed the bulls to come roaring back the rest of the day with a beautiful intra-day reversal. On Friday, the bulls added to those gains and […]
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Date: October 7, 2019
The Truth About October
With Rosh Hashanah taking me out of the office for two days, I forgot to offer some stats as the sometimes nasty month of October begins. I cannot recall who first alerted me to the breakdown I am about to show so I will just say thanks to my usual cadre of characters whose work I value and respect. Rob Hanna, Ari Wald, Jason Goepfert and Tom McClellan. Overall, October has been better known for stock market bottoms than any […]
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Date: October 3, 2019
Lower End of Range Hit – Can Bulls Make a Stand?
Last week was the single worst week of the year based on seasonal patterns and it certainly lived up to the billing I gave it several times here. Weak seasonality didn’t end last Friday. It extends to the first part of October. For the past few weeks I have been in the trading range / mild pullback camp with an eye on the upper and lower ends of recent range. After stocks failed to exceed the top of the range […]
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Date: October 2, 2019
Stock Market Reaction to Impeachment
Here we go. I remember writing about impeachment in 1998 and hoped and prayed the country wouldn’t have to experience this kind of political circus again. It took 21 years, but the circus is back in D.C. Thankfully, since we only have two prior, modern day instances of impeachment, stock market results are certainly not statistically significant. Given that, however, let’s take a look at the environments surrounding each of the prior two along with where we are today. First, […]
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Date: September 27, 2019
