Hard to Find Places to Hide
Stocks are through with most of earnings season and you know what? The major stock market indices haven’t gone anywhere and I don’t not believe they are set up to explode higher just yet. My tempered enthusiasm remains. Besides the big picture, short-term challenges, I am really having trouble finding things I want to own, regardless of my market take. I thought low volatility ETFs like SPLV would get some love along with utilities and staples, but the plunge in […]
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Date: August 11, 2023
Bull Market Intact. Q3 Pullback Intact. Bounce Setting Up.
Sorry for the late post. I just returned from Scotland yesterday and I am playing catch up, and one of my bags decided it wanted some time in London before returning to the States. It was a small, but motley crew and an epic trip to the Highlands. Only 1507 pictures taken. As you know, I have greatly tempered my enthusiasm for stocks over the past week or so. The bull market remains intact. Even this big leg […]
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Date: August 9, 2023
Apple, Amazon and Employment Report Lead to a Big Friday
As I wrote about the other day, markets were not happy that second rate rating firm, Fitch, using an odd combination of stale and subjective data downgraded the debt of the U.S. Stocks and bonds were hit hard, each losing more than 1%. As I tweeted on Thursday morning, more selling should be expected before the first short-term low is in. My tune remains the same. The bull market is alive and reasonably well. This pullback was one I started […]
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Date: August 4, 2023
U.S. Downgraded Again as Seasonal Trends for August Are Not Bullish
August is here and the month doesn’t have an upward seasonal bias. Overall, it is one of the more challenging months of the year, coming in at 0% on average, but weaker lately. The first day of August is also the single worst first day of the month in the calendar. However (isn’t there always?), because of how well July closed, the first week of August is a seasonally strong period. In other words, buy weakness to begin the month […]
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Date: August 2, 2023
Use a Retirement Planner to Avoid Five Critical Retirement Mistakes
Retirement is a distinct phase of life that everyone aspires to reach. It is the time to enjoy the rewards of a lifetime of hard work, saving, and sacrifice. However, it’s important to know that successful retirements require strategic planning by an expert to avoid critical errors that have dire consequences. That’s where the services of an experienced retirement planner in Woodbridge, CT, can be the difference between winning and losing the race. In this article, we’ll share five of […]
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Date: August 1, 2023
Thunderstorms Brewing
It cannot be July 31st. No way. Can we get summer to slow down a bit? I am sure those in the sweltering and parched areas of the country don’t want to see that, but I do, especially after we finally got a glorious Sunday with golden sunshine, low humidity and temps in the low 80s. It was so nice that after we grilled and ate outside last night, I built a fairly substantial bonfire that began slowly with some […]
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Date: July 31, 2023
Bears See Nasty Reversal & Soaring Rates
The Fed did exactly what everyone knew they would and for the first time in many meetings, Jay Powell’s press conference was boring and plain vanilla. Stocks did very little which is what the model suggested after the rally muted much of the usual edge. Thursday brought lots of fireworks with stocks ripping higher at the open, only to completely fade by the close. If you asked me at 10am what the odds were of losing that entire gain in […]
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Date: July 28, 2023
Fed to Hike 1/4% – Equilibrium Remains – Bears Still Embarrassingly Wrong
Jay Powell and his friends on the FOMC are going to hike interest rates by 1/4% today at 2pm. That is all but certain. Between now and then, the model of the day calls for plus or minus 0.50% in the S&P 500 and then a bigger move after 2pm. Given the strength into the meeting and the fact that the stock market sits at a fresh 52-week high, the odds and edge are somewhat muted and not worth the […]
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Date: July 26, 2023
Can Stocks Rally With the Fed Selling Billions?
Over the weekend I was chatting with an industry colleague who is usually bearish. He’s a glass quarter full kinda guy, but super, super bright and always has high conviction. At the beginning of the year we had this fierce debate about how 2023 would treat the stock market. You already know how bullish I was. His position was that there was no way stocks could rally simply because the Fed was selling assets from its balance sheet to the […]
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Date: July 24, 2023
Tesla & Netflix Offering Clues as I Start to Temper Exuberant Enthusiasm
The markets gave us an interesting clue to where the rally stands on Thursday. Both Tesla and Netflix reported earnings that were generally fine. There were a few tiny pieces of negativity, but nothing really big. Both stocks were hit hard as was the NASDAQ 100. You can see Tesla and Netflix below, which we own in our Unloved Gems strategy. Look all the way to the far right of the chart to see the decline. Both stocks have had […]
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Date: July 21, 2023
Houston, We Have Another Liftoff
Over the past few weeks I mentioned a number of opportunities in the markets as well as posting the trades we made to execute. I talked about gold bottoming at the end of June. I discussed some moves away from the big winners like the NASDAQ 100 and into lower risk areas like the Dow Industrials. It’s not rocket science. It’s prudent movement of funds to take advantage of solid risk/reward set ups. That doesn’t mean they will always end […]
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Date: July 19, 2023
Happy 9 Month Birthday to The Bull Market
Yes; I am very happy and I had a great weekend! Someone emailed me concerned that I did not add my usual two cents about the upcoming weekend. In my rush to bang out Friday’s blog, I must have forgotten. Fear not, we spent Friday night with a bunch of couples at our friends’ house with some gourmet food and great conversation. Mother Nature wasn’t so kind for most of the weekend, but I did squeeze in some outdoor activities […]
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Date: July 17, 2023
Bears Tortured & Decimated
The economy saw more good news on inflation this week with both CPI and PPI coming in a little cooler than expected. I know. I know. You are as surprised as I am (lots of sarcasm). Stocks haven’t rocketed off of the October bear market bottom because inflation was going to remain hot. The other day I argued with a guy who doesn’t actually manage money professionally, but claims to be all-knowing. We were at odds about the economy and […]
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Date: July 14, 2023
More Bullish Setups in The S&P 500 – Don’t Ignore The Dow Industrials
Friday was an ugly day. While the indices showed very modest losses, they, were strong in the morning, lost all of the gains and then some before closing at the lows of the day. In a vacuum that would suggest a short-term peak. But remember, we don’t manage money in a vacuum nor analyze things that way. Yes, it was a Friday in a holiday-shortened week, but I also don’t want to qualify it either. Below is the S&P 500. […]
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Date: July 10, 2023
June Jobs Report Completely Contrary to ADP – Bears Want It Both Ways
I am late in getting this out. My apologies. As you know we held our quarterly client webinar last night. After I saved the video I could not get the sound to play which we worked on this morning. I also wanted to see what the June jobs report looked like as it was released at 8:30am. On Thursday stock and bond markets sold off hard after ADP showed a massive surge in new jobs for June which would prompt […]
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Date: July 7, 2023
New Week, Month, Quarter & Half Start w/ Bulls Still Celebrating
Welcome back and I hope had a great 4th of July and/or long weekend! Just a reminder that my quarterly client webinar will take place tomorrow (Thursday) at 8pm EDT where we will cover the events of Q2, performance of our strategies and a sneak peak at what lies ahead in Q3. Of course, please bring any and all questions! Monday was the first day of the week, month, quarter and 2nd half of the year. Over 80% of the […]
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Date: July 5, 2023
Stats Still Point Higher for Stocks – Gold Looking at a Bottom Right Here
We have come to the end of the week, the end of the month, the end of the quarter and the end of the first half of 2023. As I continue to remind myself, my grandmother always warned me that the older we get, the faster time flies by. Never let a moment go to waste. My grandmother was a very worldly and wise person. We had this uniquely special relationship. She and my grandfather never conformed and did things […]
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Date: June 30, 2023
End of The Week, Month, Quarter & First Half Showing Opportunity
Over the weekend I published a video with a cornucopia of thoughts about the Fed, recession, yield curve and the markets. Towards the end of the video I offered that the stock market should bottom immediately, meaning in the coming day or so. And you know from the trades I post that we took advantage of the small bout of weakness to buy and rotate portfolios and get stopped out of a gold trade again. Seasonally, the stock market is […]
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Date: June 28, 2023
You Asked, I Answered
It is a long time in coming, so here is a video answering the most asked questions of late. Most Asked Questions ICYMI, here are some recent media interviews and quotes. Can the year of the bull continue? Don’t misread the Fed’s pause in June as the end of higher rates; Financial advisors tune out debt ceiling hysteria; How Should Investors Prepare For A Debt Ceiling Crisis?; On Friday we bought ITA and levered S&P 500. We sold DXHYX and […]
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Date: June 26, 2023
Why High-Net-Worth Individuals Need a Fee-Only Fiduciary Financial Advisor
Navigating financial markets can be as challenging as sailing uncharted waters. For high-net-worth individuals, these waters can often be laden with an even greater array of complex financial decisions, strategies, and outcomes. What is a realistic solution? Hire an experienced guide. But not just any guide. Hire a fee-only financial advisor who, as a fiduciary, must put your financial interests first. In this blog, I’ll explain why highly successful individuals like yourself should consider working with a fee-only, fiduciary financial […]
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Date: June 26, 2023
