Inexplicably Strong Employment – Good News is Bad News
On Friday, the government announced that 517,000 new jobs were created in January. That’s about what I would expect. If the economy had just troughed and a new expansion was beginning. 500,000 new jobs almost two years into a recovery is almost unheard of. I thought it was a typo when I saw it. 187,000 was expected. I am still shaking my head, not fully believing the number. Of course, the conspiracy theorists are out in full force that Biden […]
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Date: February 6, 2023
Stock Market Has Done Nothing Wrong
Sorry for the late post. My flight home from Florida was delayed yesterday and it screwed up my schedule. It was 84 when I left and I saw it is supposed to be -25 in Vermont without the wind. The Fed did exactly what 99% of the country thought they were going to do, raise rates by 0.25%. They did a little wordsmithing with their statement. Jay Powell pretty much towed the line in his presser although in such a […]
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Date: February 3, 2023
Bulls Relentless – February Not So Bad – Fed to Hike Rates
I could not have been any more positive as 2023 began against the backdrop of Wall Street looking for a poor Q1 and first half. The stock market continues to behave very well, much to the dismay of the bears which are the majority. And I continue to laugh at their rationale as they hold tightly on to the notion that this is just another bear market rally that is doomed to fail. The market has strong leadership in the […]
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Date: February 1, 2023
***Q4 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. With the clock striking midnight on December 31st, the single worst year in diversified investing of the modern era ended. While it was a very challenging year for stocks with most of the larger indices down -20% to -30%, it was not a […]
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Date: January 30, 2023
Market Passes Another Test
On Wednesday I wrote about The Important Test that the stock market faced with Microsoft, MMM and Boeing all reporting either weaker than expected numbers or guided lower for at least Q1. Remember, if my bullish case was to be proven wrong for Q1, it would be because the market wasn’t prepared for even more corporate weakness. Look at the far right of the chart. Microsoft opened down about 5% and closed yesterday at new highs for 2023. MMM opened […]
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Date: January 27, 2023
The Important Test Begins
You would have to have been asleep for the past month to have missed my 2023 Fearless Forecast. It has been posted so many times along with a myriad of media interviews. In that I said one of the key tests for my bullish thesis would be market reaction to what would be a slew of pre-announcements and lower guidance for Q1. I wasn’t arrogant enough nor stupid enough to believe the news could possibly be rosy throughout earnings season. […]
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Date: January 25, 2023
When Markets Don’t Accommodate You Pivot Quickly
Friday was a large options expiration, a day when exaggerated moves can be seen, especially when what is supposed to happen doesn’t. The stock market had another strong day on Friday after two down days. In the best of bull markets a two-day decline is a universal time to buy. However, I am not saying this is one of those times, just that it’s something to keep in mind. And I wanted to share some super short-term thoughts from Friday […]
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Date: January 23, 2023
How a Roth Conversion Could Lower Your Tax Costs
Now more than ever, even high-net-worth individuals should be looking for ways to reduce taxes. Inflation, like market volatility, affects everyone: Having a million dollars in a savings account today may buy more goods and services than it could tomorrow. With this in mind, a Roth conversion could be an option worth exploring if you want to reap the benefits of reduced taxes and greater financial flexibility. In a sense, this allows you to have a little cake and eat […]
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Date: January 23, 2023
Fed Should Stop Right Now
As I mentioned the other day, a pause to refresh or a mild pullback would be good for the stock market after running hot and heavy this year so far. On Wednesday we saw weaker economic data in retail sales and before that, Empire Manufacturing. Unlike previous soft data the stock market fell with bad news being bad news. At the same time, the Fed heads were out in full force reiterating their stance for higher interest rates for longer. […]
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Date: January 19, 2023
Bulls Looking Good
The market returns from the three-day weekend having seen a strong rally since January 5th and a few important metrics hit. All of the major stock market indices have been participating in the advance with mid and small caps being the most impressive. They have already exceeded their highs from December 13th which was the last emotional reversal lower. The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have yet to come close. How they behave around those price levels will be […]
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Date: January 17, 2023
Biggest Economic Report of All-Time
This morning, the government released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December. Almost every piece came exactly as expected. The index fell 0.1% in December. 6.5% year over year. Stripping out food and energy as they do because, let’s face it, who really needs to eat, drive or heat the home, core CPI rose 0.3%. 5.7% year over year. It’s the report that the media made out to be the single most important report ever. They said it could have […]
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Date: January 12, 2023
Markets OK – Jobs & Inflation
Stocks came into 2023 on slippery footing but managed to eke out a gain after the first five days. Yale Hirsch’s Stock Trader’s Almanac had a quaint piece about as goes the first five days of the year, so goes January. And as goes January so goes the year. It all nice and tidy except that it does not stand up to scrutiny this century. I can’t tell you how many times I have heard the pundits tell everyone, “Don’t […]
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Date: January 10, 2023
Why You Should Regularly Update Your Retirement Projections
Retirement planning is an important process that should become a lifelong habit, especially if you are a high-net-worth individual. Given today’s challenging economic and investment environment, it’s even more important to regularly revisit and refine your long-term projections and strategies. Otherwise, you’re driving blindly into the future. Keeping them up-to-date can help ensure that you are prepared for whatever uncertainties may arise in your post-retirement life. This is good because, unfortunately, car accidents, divorces, and lawsuits lack the courtesy to […]
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Date: January 9, 2023
2023 Fearless Forecast – Year of the Bull
Intro to the Fearless Forecast Each and every year, I spend some time in Q4 collecting my thoughts about how I see the next 12 months unfolding in the financial markets, economy, etc. While I do really enjoy looking into my super secret crystal ball as I do throughout the year, I also know that it’s a fairly futile exercise to forecast 12 months out. First, we do not manage client portfolios according to my opinion in any time frame. […]
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Date: January 7, 2023
Santa Did Call – 2023 Should Be Good For All
For the past few weeks I heard pundit after pundit scream about how the Santa Claus Rally (SCR) will fail this year or is failing this year or even crashing. The fact of the matter is that the SCR ended at Wednesday’s close with a gain of 0.81%. That is inarguable fact. Santa Claus came to Broad and Wall so bears will not call, or at least that’s how the botched adage goes. In other words we see no warning […]
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Date: January 5, 2023
Strong & Telling Market Action On The Way – Santa Delivering
2023 is finally here and most in the business will not miss 2022. Good riddance and adios to the most challenging year for stocks and bonds combined since at least the Great Depression. As we turn the page I wish you a 2023 full of good health, happiness, peace and prosperity! I thank you for reading, for questioning and for commenting. I am truly grateful and appreciative. Although I am not one for big resolutions, I will say this; my […]
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Date: January 3, 2023
Top 6 Financial Tips Before Year-End
The final week of 2022 is upon us and I wanted to share a video I created as well as a recent segment I did with my friend, Tim Lammers, on Fox61 in CT. It’s not too late to do some last minute financial planning and save money before the year ends. As always please don’t hesitate to call or email with any questions or comments. Top 6 Financial Tips Before Year-End Plans and reflections for end-of-year personal finances Last […]
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Date: December 28, 2022
How Can a High Net-Worth Individual Fortify Investments?
These can be challenging times for investors. As I’ve mentioned before, the classic 60/40 investment portfolio is not the reliable go-to it was for decades. The economy and stock market both tend to be cyclical, so they should improve over time. However, that probably won’t happen overnight. This is why having a well-diversified investment portfolio is always a good idea. What follows are some additional tips to consider. This article considers these topics: Resist the urge to sell when the […]
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Date: December 27, 2022
The Santa Claus Rally Begins
Regardless of what the pundits and media say, the true Santa Claus Rally (SCR) as observed and researched by Yale Hirsch of Stock Traders Almanac fame began at the close on December 22nd and lasts through the close on January 4th. In other words the trend is the last five trading days of the year and first two of the new year. That’s not debatable. Whether Santa arrives or not is up for debate. Since 2000 Santa rewarded investors 18 […]
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Date: December 23, 2022
How Will Social Security Change in 2023?
The Social Security Administration (SSA) has announced that there will be several changes to benefits in 2023. According to them, these changes are necessary for ensuring the program’s long-term stability. In this blog post, I’ll take a closer look at what the changes may entail—and how they could affect (even affluent) investors. I may share more insights in the coming weeks, as well. Please explore these issues with us: Social Security’s 2023 COLA summarized Taking benefits early vs. waiting for […]
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Date: December 22, 2022
