It MUST Be a Bear Market
For the past 14 months, I have pounded the table that the bear market ended in October 2022. To be 100% accurate I started this thesis in late September 2022 and it’s all in the blog archives, the good, the bad and the ugly. It’s also in the media section. I have watched so many people turn bearish from June through August 2022 after stocks had already seen the vast majority of their bear market damage. And those folks largely […]
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Date: November 22, 2023
The Three Musketeers Have Fallen – What Will The Bears Say Now?
This is going to be a quick update as I am catching a flight home. Throughout the Q3 pullback I often discussed the three keys for a durable bottom. They were crude oil, rates and the dollar. I continually received push back that there was no way rates and crude could go lower although people always seem to hate the dollar. Well my friends, price never lies. Let’s start with crude oil. I would say $96 t0 $72 is a […]
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Date: November 20, 2023
***Q3 Client Update***
The third quarter of 2023 was another tale of two halves. The markets came off a strong first half of 2023 and kept on going in July. That’s where the fun ended. So many investors who sat on the sidelines for the first 6 months of 2023 couldn’t stand the gain regret and finally plowed into the stock market and other “risk on” assets in July. We know this factually by looking at money flows, sentiment surveys and the options […]
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Date: November 17, 2023
WOWZA
That was some rally on Tuesday! And that was on the heels of a powerful rally off of the lowest levels we saw in October. I have to admit that Tuesday even surprised me a bit. You know my forecast. You know I have been positive on the “risk on” markets, but Tuesday was one of those days where they rip the faces off of the bears. It was an OUCH day. The bulls had plenty of those in 2022, […]
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Date: November 15, 2023
Bears Couldn’t Even Muster 1 Day of Follow Through
So much for Thursday downside reversal mattering. My thinking for a consolidation of mild pullback fell apart an hour into trading on Friday. If you want an example of how strong the bulls are and how powerful the rally is, that epitomizes it. There was a set up for one thing and the exact opposite occurred. The rally was broad-based and the “risk on” sectors led. On Friday after the markets closed rating agency, Moody’s, downgraded the U.S. to negative […]
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Date: November 13, 2023
Another Bullish Thrust But Some Mild Weakness First
After a fierce 8-day rally, stocks reversed hard on Thursday and look to start consolidating some gains or mildly pull back 1-2%. The oft-mentioned 4400 area on the S&P 500 is where I show the blue, horizontal line. Thursday was the second time the market has approached that area and turned back. I sense that three times a charm and stocks will be going through later this month on their way to 4500 and higher into 2024. On Wednesday I […]
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Date: November 10, 2023
Facts About The Bottom and the Breadth Thrust
The stock market bottomed on October 27th. Fact. We didn’t have a spike in the Volatility Index. Fact. Markets rarely bottom on Fridays and rarely when they close near their lows for the day. Facts. It ain’t easy. Since the bottom we saw a very powerful rally with the right indices and sectors leading. The upside was so strong that a number of thrusts hit the market, rendering it with escape velocity, like a rocket that clears the earth’s gravity. […]
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Date: November 8, 2023
It Wasn’t Easy But The Bottom Came In As Expected
Good morning from Chicago, one of my favorite cities to visit where the weather is very mild and pleasant in contrast to my visit to South Carolina last week where I woke up to 34 and cold. Go figure. I am in town for the annual National Association of Active Investment Managers Outlook conference where I have proudly been in leadership for more years than I can remember. It’s a trade association very near and dear to my heart as […]
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Date: November 6, 2023
Powerful 5 Day Run For The Bulls
Sorry for the delay in getting this out. I had an early morning flight from South Carolina back to CT after visiting clients and the WIFI on the plane did not work. I flew Spirit because it was the only nonstop flight. 12 years ago, I swore I would never do that again after they tested charging to use the bathroom. I thought that was beyond absurd. I broke my promise to myself and I will not be doing that […]
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Date: November 3, 2023
***Fed Rate Hike Cycle Over – Early Signs of Recession Growing***
Let’s start this Fed update with the trends. The model for the day should be familiar by now. Look for the stock market to be plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a big move. Had stocks not rallied smartly over the past two days, it would have been one of those rare, all in days where the trend’s accuracy is over 90%. Still, the post-2pm move favors the bulls into the close. The FOMC is not going to […]
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Date: November 1, 2023
Some Things That Bother Me About The Stock Market
Friday was an odd day. The Dow Industrials, S&P 400 and Russell 2000 were all down more than 1% while the S&P 500 was down about half that and the NASDAQ 100 was up 0.50%. The net number of stocks advancing was -1400 which was bearish. Markets rarely bottom on Friday so we look for the next attempt at a low early this week. To change it up, let me offer several things I do not like. First, I continue […]
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Date: October 30, 2023
Green Shoots or Sucker Shoots?
When I get the same few questions often in a short period of time, I assume that lots and lots of folks are thinking the same thing. One of those questions had to do with the impact and the war in the Middle East on the U.S. markets. I have said that I do not believe the current decline in stocks and bonds has much to do with the war. But what about the potential for nuclear war? What if […]
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Date: October 27, 2023
Groping For a Low… Again
The streak was broken! Whether you look at the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100, we no longer have to hear about either index being up X straight Mondays. It was certainly an odd phenomena. And my cursory view of Fridays didn’t reveal any “sign of relief” type rally where Thursday and/or Fridays were sold ahead of the weekend. I am sure someone a lot smarter than me can probably find some rationale. The S&P 500 fell below 4200 on […]
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Date: October 25, 2023
Smart Social Security Facts: Your Guide to Tax Planning for 2024
Most people we are talking to about their plans for a comfortable, secure retirement have serious concerns about inflation and a potential recession in 2024. When they added the complexities of Social Security’s eligibility requirements, planning for the future became even more complicated. They want to make the right decisions to maximize their after-tax lifetime benefits. Social Security may or may not produce a meaningful monthly income for you. But, at a minimum, it extends the life of your other […]
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Date: October 23, 2023
Ugly Friday For The Bulls But It IS Monday – Scenario Building For Q4
Friday was an ugly day for the bulls, certainly price-wise. The NASDAQ played downside catch up from what has been an outperforming position. Interestingly, the number of stocks advancing versus declining was the strongest of the past three days. I added a scenario which I thought was almost dead. It’s in light blue below and quickly drawn in. The S&P 500 has some more downside this week to breach the October lows and bottom somewhere around 4200. 4200 is not […]
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Date: October 22, 2023
Short-Term Turns Down – Q4 Studies Still Point Higher
In today’s blog I am going to share some very short-term comments first and then expand those to October and Q4 after the two charts I post. The stock market did not make it back up to the 4400 level I discussed earlier in the week and last week. Rather, it turned south and now appears to be heading towards the 4200 area which coincides with where the decline stopped earlier this month as well as where the popular average […]
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Date: October 20, 2023
Medicare, Social Security and a Drop in Stock Market Risk
Let’s start with some general financial planning tidbits. First, Medicare open enrollment started on October 16th and goes through December 7th. If you are 65 or soon to be 65 or want to change plans, this is for you. Do not delay! This is your annual opportunity. Second, the Social Security Administration just announced that the cost of living adjustment (COLA) for 2024 will be 3.2%. That means your gross social security benefit will rise by 3.2% in 2024. As […]
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Date: October 18, 2023
More Evidence of The Bottom
As you know the time and price targets for a bottom were met. The window for a bottom opened a few weeks ago and it’s hard to argue that a low has not been seen. The only push back the bears can offer is whether or not it was the bottom for Q4. The bears will say it wasn’t while the bulls will say it was. I added a third blue line to the very familiar chart below. It’s highest […]
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Date: October 16, 2023
Better Be Watching The Dollar
With Wednesday’s hotter than expected PPI, the market made it three straight negative news pieces that resulted in a higher stock market. On Thursday, we had a hotter Consumer Price Index (CPI) that ended the streak. While the CPI put a damper on prices it was really the results of the day’s Treasury auction that roiled markets, at least for a few hours. It was yet another auction with less enthusiasm than expected resulting in higher yields. The chart below […]
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Date: October 13, 2023
The Most Bullish Thing a Market Can Do
If you’re keeping score at home, I think we now have three straight pieces of negative news where the stock market reacted positively. First, last Friday’s employment report was very strong which means a more vigilant Fed. Stocks staged a massive reversal to the upside. Then we had the unspeakable Hamas invasion of Israel. Stocks opened sharply lower and closed higher. This morning, the Producer Price Index came in hotter than expected (higher inflation) and markets look to open higher. […]
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Date: October 11, 2023
