Fresh Selling Wave Hits Post CPI
It certainly has been a wild few days and it’s not over. Between the Fed meeting, CPI report and today’s gargantuan expiration of futures and options, the markets have had an overwhelming amount of information to absorb. Volatility has been high. For December, it has been on the extreme side. While I am sure it is different as most are, this has the feel of the early June selling wave with multiple days down and gap down weak openings. Look […]
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Date: December 16, 2022
***SPECIAL Fed Update – Recession & 50% Rally in Stocks***
Here we go again. Today is Fed day. I am sure we will hear that it is the single most important decision the Fed has ever made. Blah, blah, blah. Powell and the Fed have been crystal clear, of late. Rates will continue higher until something is broken, or thereabouts. Before I get further into this, let me state that the model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given that stocks have sold […]
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Date: September 21, 2022
If I am Wrong the Rally Has Ended
The stock market as measured by the S&P 500 has basically gone nowhere in 7 trading sessions. Bulls say it is a sign of strength that all the negative headlines have been unable to shake the market lower. Bears looks at that dark blue horizontal line below and conclude that stocks failed to close above it and are now vulnerable. Although I do not believe the rally from the June 17th bottom is over, I am certainly aware of a […]
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Date: August 10, 2022
Historic Selling Wave Ended
As I have been writing about for more than a week, I had high conviction that a low of some sort was forming. Dozens of stars were lining up and even if this was 2008 (it’s not), prices should still rebound 7-15%. And the bulls did what I said they were supposed to do. Step up and squeeze the bears. Prices are back to the peak from Fed day this month where the last plunge began. The bulls should surpass […]
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Date: May 27, 2022
Another Shot Down & Rally
The stock market had a very rough end to the week, falling more than 5% from Thursday’s high to Friday’s close, ending with a 2.5% down day on Friday. That’s significant. Let’s unpack each number a little. Thursday to Friday collapses usually lead to one more big decline on Monday. There have only been a few instances to the contrary. However, down 2.5% Friday usually lead to a rally above Friday’s close with in the next week. The S&P 500 […]
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Date: April 25, 2022
Stocks Rally Through Feb Highs – Bullish Sentiment Rising
On the surface we have seen one powerful move off the March bottom in the stock market. It’s been almost relentless with only one real down day out of 10. Additionally, we saw many of the major indices exceed their February highs, an area that has garnered much attention as lines in the sand for the bears to know they’re wrong. You can see that below in the S&P 500 with the blue, horizontal line. While I didn’t think stocks […]
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Date: March 30, 2022
Stocks Rally Three Straight
As you know I have been targeting this week all quarter for the point where stocks begin to go up out of the bottom and not into the low or sideways. The last three days have seen 1%+ rallies for stocks. Not bad, but I am still not totally convinced it is off to the races again. While I do still believe Q2 is going to be a win for the bulls, there remain a few weeks to get to […]
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Date: March 18, 2022
Textbook Rally – Is It Over?
Between a crazy earnings season and a steady stream of economic data, it’s like a constant strobe light show, or as someone else tweeted, like being a dog on a squirrel farm. As you know, I thought 2021 would close with very strong economic data that would weaken in 2022. Q4 GDP came in super powerful at +6.9% which was more than a full point ahead of estimates. It is almost impossible for politicians and others to argue that the […]
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Date: February 3, 2022
Fed Day & Powell Laughing at Me – Sell The News on Earnings
Coming in to the week, there was so much to focus on, so much to worry about for the media. Delta variant, new mask rules, the Fed meeting and every mega cap tech stock reporting earnings. All I heard was about the massive fireworks that would be coming. Well folks, so far, there has been nothing. Even with Apple, Microsoft and Google reporting at the same time, there has barely been a sparkler. And all three companies had stellar quarters. […]
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Date: July 28, 2021
Time for The Bulls to Make a Stand – Cramer Warning More Selling
The stock market has now closed lower for four straight days and three consecutive post-Fed meeting. The pullback has been healthy and relatively modest, so far. On Friday we saw one of the big, quarterly options and futures expirations which usually see prices rally into the day and selloff post. That didn’t happen. Many people are focused on the negative seasonal trend post-June expiration. However, most people are lazy and do not dig beneath the surface. I am not saying […]
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Date: June 21, 2021
