Banks Selling the News. Transport Close By
Earnings season is now in full swing which means that every morning. pre-market, you will find a slew of companies reporting as well as offering guidance or forecasts about the future. That creates a much higher level of single stock and sometimes single sector overnight risk. Right now, the major banks are reporting, after experiencing a near vertical ascent into Q3 quarter end. The last time I wrote a specific article about the banking sector, it had just touched a […]
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Date: October 13, 2017
Sell The News
Not much has changed in the stock market since last week as volatility continues to be historically low. While the S&P 500 poked above the recent range on Friday, the rest of the major indices weren’t exactly in line. That’s not a big deal. Small caps looked like they were getting ready to step up, but we haven’t seen signs of confirmation just yet. Two things I did find interesting were the April employment report, released on Friday as well […]
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Date: May 8, 2017
“Buy the Election, Sell the Inauguration”
That’s been a popular refrain over the past week as stocks continue in stall mode, basically since December 13. In fact, the Dow and Russell 2000 are now down on the new year. Only the NASDAQ 100 which I thought would go from laggard to leader has had the power to forge ahead in 2017. However, that index is now looking a bit tired and in need of a little rest which won’t be so bad. For most of the […]
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Date: January 23, 2017
Post-FOMC Sell Continues as Does Pullback Mode
Our post-FOMC sell signal from Thursday’s close remains in place. That short-term trade will end this week. Stocks begin the week on the defensive as Europe and Asia are showing red. The media will likely blame it on pre-debate jitters, but that’s just nonsense. Pullback mode remains in place as it has been for the past few weeks. As I keep mentioning, it should not be a big deal. The Dow and S&P 500 continue to be the weak sister […]
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Date: September 26, 2016
Fed Trend Says Sell but Fedex Gives Thumbs Up
After Thursday’s strength, one of our post-FOMC trading systems gave a sell signal and that calls for weakness over the next 3-5 days. This has a high degree of accuracy, greater than 75%. If stocks rally further on Friday, it will trigger another trend calling for lower prices with a hit rate above 85%. If correct, this should just be a quick and relatively mild bout of weakness that can be bought for another move to new highs on the […]
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Date: September 22, 2016
Santa Claus Rally Just Around Corner
Big picture. Late October through mid January is the strongest seasonal period to invest in stocks. That’s fact. Over a similar but slightly different period, the semiconductors are the strongest group to invest in. Just since the October bottom, they are up 27% and I am very glad we own them in our sector program. They made up for some crummy positions we have held during the same time. Early December shows some slightly negative seasonal headwinds, like we are […]
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Date: December 10, 2014
Russell Trying to Join Party
Over the past few months I have often warned about the caution signs being given by the major stock market indices not all being in sync together. With 32 months passing since the last 10%+ correction, the bearish camp is hoping that age alone will befall this market. History suggests otherwise. Historically, major index non confirmation or divergence is typically a sign of a market about to correct or in the most extreme cases, the end of a bull market. […]
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Date: June 12, 2014
Rally, Decline… Outcomes Abound
The stock market begins the post holiday week in neutral territory after the mid week bottom last week that I discussed on Yahoo Finance. The day before Good Friday is usually up less than 0.50% and that ended up coming true. The Monday after Good Friday, which is also the first day after April option expiration has a bit of a headwind to it so a strong advance by the bulls would be an especially positive sign. In all likelihood, […]
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Date: April 21, 2014
Still in a Selling Mood
Although short, it was a good exchange on Squawk Box the other morning. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000180365&play=1 The stock market SHOULD come back from the day and a half break with the bulls pushing the Dow well above 15,000 again. We have the jobs report at 8:30am on Friday and I don’t see that as throwing too much cold water on the rally. But as I have discussed and written about for a while, I believe rallies over 15,000 are selling opportunities for now. […]
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Date: July 4, 2013
Obama Victory, Market Sell Off
Congratulations to President Barack Obama and all of the politicians who were elected by the American people last night. In the end, although my candidate did not win, Democracy was and is always the big winner. As you know, I hardly ever use the word “hope” when discussing investing, but in this case, I do hope we somehow see congress and the president at least genuinely attempt to work together on a bipartisan basis. I don’t know a single person who […]
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Date: November 7, 2012
