Fed Statement Day Trend
Once again, the markets have come to the day when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases their statement regarding interest rates and their economic forecast. Today, we also get to hear from Janet Yellen during the post meeting press conference. What to expect? Absolutely nothing on the interest rate front. As I have said before every meeting since rates went to essentially 0%, the Fed is not going to raise rates today. That day will wrongly come sooner […]
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Date: June 17, 2015
Fed Trend Says UP, But They are Nuts to Raise Rates
Today ends the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee’s two day meeting where no action is expected to take place. Computer algorithms will be set to trade on any non-mention of the word “patience” or actual mention of the same word. Isn’t technology great?!?! As you know, I have done a fair amount of research of Fed statement days and the trend for today is plus or minus -.50% in the S&P 500 until 2 pm and then a rally into […]
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Date: March 18, 2015
Fed & Yellen on Hot Seat Today
The Federal Open Market Committee (Fed or FOMC) concludes their two day and final meeting of 2014 on Wednesday with their announcement at 2pm and subsequent press conference with Janet Yellen. Interest rates will not be raised. Market watchers will parse the statement to see if Yellen & Co. remove the “considerable time” phrase for low interest rates from the release, signaling that rates may increase sooner than later. Should those words continue in the statement, I would expect stocks […]
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Date: December 17, 2014
One Door Closes Another Opens
On Wednesday, to no one’s surprise, Janet Yellen & Co. ended the Fed’s 5+ year experiment of purchasing assets in the treasury and mortgage backed securities market, also known as quantitative easing (QE) or money printing. I won’t rehash all of the reasons why I continue to believe this is a misguided strategy, but it is. Before the ink was even dry on the statement, the Bank of Japan completely caught the markets off guard last night with another ramp […]
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Date: October 31, 2014
Headwinds Abound This Week
Almost all markets finished on a sour note last week and that spilled over to begin the new week. While I have written about stocks needing a short-term breather, I was surprised that treasury bonds could not get a lift as stocks weakened. In fact, both stocks and bonds peaked the same week, but bonds sold off more significantly, something that is unusual. The major stock market indices certainly look like they want at least a little rally, but the […]
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Date: September 16, 2014
Treasuries Sneak Quietly into Favor
As you know, I have been a treasury bond bull almost all year, putting me squarely in the severe minority camp. 2014 began with the masses all forecasting much higher interest rates across the spectrum. Astute investors know that the masses are usually wrong, especially at major turning points. Jeff Benjamin from Investment News continues to listen to my usually contrarian side of investing and wrote a great article which you can click on below. Keep in mind that this […]
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Date: August 22, 2014
Fed Statement Day Trend
That certainly felt like a quick six weeks since the Fed’s last statement day and press conference! Today, Yellen & Co. conclude their two day meeting with a statement to be released at 2:00 pm est and no press conference. As has been the case since the first taper last December, the Fed will reduce their assets purchases by another $10 billion to $25 billion per month on their to wrapping up quantitative easing this fall. There has been a […]
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Date: July 30, 2014
Much Ado About Nothing from Yellen & Fed Today
My how time flies… It’s Fed decision day again with Janet Yellen set to announce another $10 billion cut from bond purchases, keeping the FOMC on pace to wind down QE Unlimited later this year. After the 2pm announcement, Ms. Yellen will head over to the always entertaining (NOT) press conference. One thing I am sure of is that the Fed chair will not commit another rookie, foot in mouth, Joe Biden esque’ gaffe by committing to a specific timeline […]
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Date: June 18, 2014
No Foot in Mouth for Yellen Today
The Fed concludes their two day meeting today with the market expecting no increase in interest rates and another $10 billion tapered from their QE program. That would leave the Fed to continue purchasing treasury bonds and mortgage backed securities to the tune of $45 billion per month. After Janet Yellen’s rookie gaffe six weeks ago during the press conference, the chair is lucky that there won’t be another press conference today. Rather, the Fed will release a statement with […]
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Date: April 30, 2014
Ben Bernanke Cringing
New Fed chair, Janet Yellen, presided over her first FOMC meeting this week with her first press conference yesterday afternoon. In short, as much as I supported her for the position, it’s crystal clear that she is no Ben Bernanke and has much to learn. On the positive side, she was very calm and took time to give thoughtful and detailed answers. I especially liked when she stated that the glide path to tighter monetary policy was going to be […]
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Date: March 20, 2014
