Make It Four Straight
For the fourth day in a row, stocks lost steam later in the day. While the internals continue to improve, price is always the final arbiter and the 6 week pullback continues for now. At the same time, gold is popping a little and crude oil just scored a one year high, both against a strong dollar which is unusual. Both semis and software are bouncing from their first bout of weakness off the high while banks exploded higher on […]
Read More
Date: October 20, 2016
Another Gap. Trade & Fade?
After Thursday’s reversal, Friday’s early action looked promising as I left the office before lunch to celebrate my 15th wedding anniversary playing golf with some friends at Foxwoods before the wives met us for dinner and gambling. At least the dinner went well! However, as has been the case lately, opening gaps have often been the high or low point for the day as was seen on Friday as well as on Monday. This is certainly not a sign of […]
Read More
Date: October 18, 2016
Is Pullback Mode Finally Over???
With yesterday downside break of the very obvious trading range in the Dow, S&P 500 and S&P 400, the pundits were all over this in the media. Just like I did yesterday, I often warn to be careful of a trap. Very apparent breaks of trading range will many times result in a quick and sharp snap back as I offered. In the short-term, that is exactly what occurred on Thursday as the bears got trapped in the first hour […]
Read More
Date: October 14, 2016
Stocks & Treasuries Looking to Diverge
With indications of morning weakness, the Dow, S&P 500 and S&P 400 will be breaking down from their six-week digestion patterns. Amazingly, for the past six weeks these indices have basically traded from high to low inside the range they saw on September 9 & 12. This action does not change my thinking about a continuing pullback and not some large scale collapse. The first thing I want to see is whether this potential breakdown is held for more than […]
Read More
Date: October 13, 2016
Pullback Mode Remains the Short-Term Theme
My general theme of pullback mode for stocks continues in all of the major indices except for the NASDAQ 100. Gold and silver have been a more exciting story, but they, too, have paused since I wrote about them last week. Sector leadership remains very strong with semis, banks, transports and energy near their highs at the same time the defensive group has been weak. I wrote about consumer staples looking especially troubled a few weeks ago and nothing has […]
Read More
Date: October 11, 2016
FOX Business TODAY & Dow 20K
I am going to be on Fox Business’ The Intelligence Report with Trish Regan today (Friday) at 2:50 pm edt discussing my forecast for stocks and the markets, especially with the Fed set to meet next Tuesday & Wednesday. Trish is heading back from Cleveland so Ashley Webster is filling in. It has been truly amazing what a little rally has done to market sentiment. At the BREXIT bottom, as the pundits, masses and media all panicked and headed for […]
Read More
Date: July 22, 2016
And NOW They Want to Buy?
Although fresh all-time highs are making headlines, making it seem like there’s a lot of action, the past week has been fairly quiet for stocks. On the surface, it looks like the first leg of the post-BREXIT rally has ended. However before you think about turning negative, I remain very positive on the intermediate and long-term. It’s the short-term that looks like a pullback or coin flip as sentiment has become a little too giddy and the pundits have all […]
Read More
Date: July 21, 2016
Like a Broken Record
I read a stat last night that said only 1% of Americans hold off taking social security until 70. That low number really surprised me as it means 99% of Americans do not get the maximum amount of social security. When I meet with clients and prospects, one of the foundation conversations is when to take social security and why. If you are approaching retirement or already take social security, do yourself a favor and spend some time researching this! […]
Read More
Date: July 12, 2016
Biding Time to BREXIT
After an almost celebratory opening on Monday which saw the Dow up 200 points, stock steadily declined throughout the day and closed at their lows. On the surface, the average person saw all of the major indices nicely higher with the vast majority of stocks up on the day. The short-term trader saw a tired market that couldn’t hold early gains and closed at the low tick. Both observations are correct but time frame determines your viewpoint. I fall somewhere […]
Read More
Date: June 21, 2016
Bulls’ Time… AGAIN
As has been the theme since the February bottom, weakness is buying opportunity until proven otherwise. Except for the brief period from April 21 to May 20, I have been pounding the table on the bullish front. The Fed, earnings, China, BREXIT, employment have all given ammunition to the bears, but someone forgot to tell the stock market. Last Thursday saw a somewhat dramatic reversal the day after the Fed meeting which helped our Fed trends. While the bulls took […]
Read More
Date: June 19, 2016
