Pullback Deeper Than Expected
Stocks continue under pressure as they pullback from the huge run last month. Last week, I offered that this week would be the buying opportunity, but the pullback has been deeper than I expected. “Relentless” would be an exaggeration, but there has certainly been some strong selling. While Friday’s action did show the major indices mostly down 1%+, the selling was less severe than Thursday. Going in to next week, volatility should continue to be on the high side and […]
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Date: November 13, 2015
Pullback Orderly and Constructive So Far
The pullback that began last Wednesday in the major stock market indices continues. It’s been orderly and constructive so far and if the super bullish case remains, it should wrap up sooner than later. The stock market is digesting the better than expected employment report and is coming to terms with a December rate hike by the Fed. The banks and discretionary continue to lead which is a positive sign over the intermediate-term. Transports are transitioning to leadership and that’s […]
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Date: November 10, 2015
Pullback to Buy
Stocks are finally seeing some pause in the relentless rally that began a little over a month ago. It should be mild, relatively painless and in the 1-3% range. As I continue to mention, any and all weakness is a buying opportunity until proven otherwise. And there’s a chance that the “proven otherwise” won’t be seen until well into 2016. Internally, the stock market has been and is on solid footing. As you can see from the chart below, the […]
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Date: November 5, 2015
Stepping on the Bears’ Throats
As bullish as I have been, and I don’t think many have been as positive as I have been, the stock market is now starting to surprise even me on the upside. Coming in to the week, stocks were looking a little tired and in need of some rest, either by going sideways for a few weeks or by seeing a mild pullback of 1-3%. Instead, stocks are continuing to move higher although the rate of acceleration has slowed. I […]
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Date: November 3, 2015
Catching Their Breath
After a huge win for the bulls last week, stocks have become very short-term overbought. I don’t think the rally is over nor do I think any meaningful weakness will unfold. Rather, I think the bulls need a pause to refresh which can be accomplished by going sideways for a period of time or seeing a quick pullback. Either way, new highs should be up next and buying any weakness is the strategy until proven otherwise. Am I certain that […]
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Date: October 26, 2015
Pain for the Bears
After two straight down days and four days of pause overall, the bulls roared back to life on Thursday as you would normally expect during a powerful move off a bottom. It’s that first mild pullback from a significant low where the bears get a little excited that it could be another leg down, but all of the Johnny Come Lately bulls realize it may be their last chance to get on board. More pain for the bears. Recent sentiment […]
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Date: October 16, 2015
Sector Canaries Singing but Quietly
With the major stock market indices all in good shape beyond the short-term pullback, let’s take a look at the key sectors and two other important canaries. The banks are first and they remain mired in a trading range for the past year. Before the last bear market, banks peaked a good nine months before the major indices did. In the Dotcom bear market, banks topped a full 18 months before the overall market did. As a bull, it would […]
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Date: March 10, 2015
So Far So Good!
Just two ago, I wrote about the stock market “groping” for a bottom and laid out a scenario for that to begin on Wednesday. The beaten down Russell 2000 was the key as it very quietly had been outperforming the market for three days. That behavior is not what you typically see if a crash was unfolding. Our indicators and systems backed up my own thoughts and our equity strategies went to maximum exposure at the close on Wednesday. When […]
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Date: October 17, 2014
Key Sectors Sending Up Bearish Warning Signs
Last week, in Major Indices Issue Warning, I discussed how the strength in the Dow and S&P 500 were masking weakness in the other major indices and how a warning sign was given. Today, I go a step further and dive into the key sectors of the stock market. We begin this section with the S&P 400, Russell 2000 and NASDAQ 100 all showing relative weakness, a clear red flag. Below is the first key stock market sector and also […]
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Date: May 9, 2014
3 Indicators That Can Tell You the Market’s Next Move
On Monday, I was in the city spending some time with my friends at Yahoo Finance. As always, I thank them for their hospitality and Jeff Macke for the engaging conversation. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/3-indicators-tell-market-next-move-115923205.html With the volume and velocity of information out there, trying to get a read on the stock market is like attempting to get a sip of water from a firehose. Thankfully Paul Schatz of Heritage Capital has three ways to check the health of the market and durability […]
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Date: July 5, 2012
