Junk Bonds Stepping Up. Everything Seems PERFECT!
Snowmageddon ’18 is here! Let’s make it two straight days in the New Year and two straight all-time highs in the major stock market indices with Dow 25K up next which was my next target after 23,000. After five straight closes above 25K, 30K will likely be the next target. So far, stocks have done nothing wrong and I do not believe the rally is ending here. However, I do think that the market is going to form a short-term […]
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Date: January 4, 2018
Santa Arrives Late. Bulls Back in Control
Between my concerns about the last five days of the year and then the bullishness of the first day of the New Year, the market has been cooperating. Monday’s burst to new highs in essentially all of the major stock market indices puts the bulls firmly back in charge with the likelihood for some upside follow through on Wednesday. None of the major indices are doing anything wrong at the moment and they are all in sync to the upside. […]
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Date: January 3, 2018
Weak Close to 2017 Indicates Bounce to Begin 2018
Back to work. Lots going on. Many crosscurrents. I hope you had a safe and enjoyable New Year’s celebration. I am still thawing out from so many days in Vermont without seeing the thermometer get above 0. The stock market begins the new week, month, quarter and year with a rather disappointing close to 2017. It has been something on my radar screen for a few weeks as recent history has not been kind to the bulls over the last […]
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Date: January 2, 2018
Where is Santa Claus?!?!
Last week, I wrote about the much heralded Santa Claus Rally and last five trading days of the year. If you weren’t able to read the piece, I think it’s a good unbiased analysis debunking the notion that this time of year is like shooting fish in a barrel. With 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2016 all limping in to close the year, the trend has really been quite the opposite. So far in 2017, Santa has barely been seen with […]
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Date: December 28, 2017
Debunking Santa & the Last 5 Days of the Year’s Bullishness
Here it is; the last five days of trading for 2017. So far, it’s been the least volatile year in history. And barring any truly unspeakable geopolitical event, it will end that way as well. The stock market hasn’t seen even a 5% decline, let alone any full fledged correction. Those most rewarded were the ones who did absolutely nothing all year, similar to 1995. I don’t think 2018 will be a repeat, but that’s a story for a different […]
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Date: December 22, 2017
Santa Came a Callin’ But Who Cares…
The Santa Claus Rally (SCR) has officially ended with the bulls winning by almost 1/2%. That’s supposed to portend positive things for the year ahead. However, as with most Wall Street adages and assumptions, it just stand up to scrutiny when doing the research. First, let’s remember that during most long-term periods, stocks rise at least 2 out of every 3 years, so a permanent kind of tailwind to support the bulls. As I started to update the stats on […]
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Date: January 6, 2017
Santa Came a Callin’ & Dow 20K Up Next
While the point totals so far have been more impressive on Tuesday, the market action on Wednesday is more constructive and healthier. We had a quieter opening without emotion. The Russell 2000 and S& P 400 are leading, which runs counter to the trend I pointed out yesterday. The NYSE Advance/Decline Line is much stronger today. Commodities are bouncing back. I was hard pressed to find any sector that behaved well on Tuesday, but the vast majority are today. I […]
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Date: January 4, 2017
Bulls Rockin’ to Start 2017
It looks like the bulls are refreshed and ready to go into 2017 with the bears perhaps still nursing a hangover. Early indications show the Dow Industrials up roughly 150 points this morning which would put them within striking distance of 20,000 this week. I have seen a number of very short-term studies over the weekend which all point to higher prices today and possibly tomorrow based off the weak close to 2017 within the context of a higher December. […]
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Date: January 3, 2017
Well, Well, Well Mr. Bear
Wednesday was definitely an interesting day as opening strength was immediately sold and built upon throughout the day. That behavior is not only out of character for the post-election rally, it certainly is as well for the final few days with prices so extended. Market internals were pretty much as expected for a day like that and the Dow held up much better than the other major indices. Except for gold, sector weakness was across the board. Treasuries got a […]
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Date: December 28, 2016
Dancing Sugar Plums & Dow 20K
Two days into the Santa Claus Rally and the Dow is up a whopping 26 points. While that doesn’t seem like anything, it’s fairly typical of the final five trading days of the year which often see a mild drift higher before sellers sometimes come in on the final day. Tuesday saw the bulls come right back to work early in the day with thoughts of sugar plums and Dow 20,000 dancing in the heads. Stock market internals were certainly […]
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Date: December 27, 2016
