Catching Their Breath
After a huge win for the bulls last week, stocks have become very short-term overbought. I don’t think the rally is over nor do I think any meaningful weakness will unfold. Rather, I think the bulls need a pause to refresh which can be accomplished by going sideways for a period of time or seeing a quick pullback. Either way, new highs should be up next and buying any weakness is the strategy until proven otherwise. Am I certain that […]
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Date: October 26, 2015
Pain for the Bears
After two straight down days and four days of pause overall, the bulls roared back to life on Thursday as you would normally expect during a powerful move off a bottom. It’s that first mild pullback from a significant low where the bears get a little excited that it could be another leg down, but all of the Johnny Come Lately bulls realize it may be their last chance to get on board. More pain for the bears. Recent sentiment […]
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Date: October 16, 2015
More on the Post Crash Pattern… Both Paths are Bullish
The only thing missing from a “perfect” pattern is for the S&P 500 to breach the August lows for up to a few days. I hesitate to use the word “perfect” because it rarely plays out exactly as I expect, but it certainly did so in 2011. Additionally, in both 1987 and 1989 which I partially dismissed, the final lows did not breach the crash lows before the big rally began. As you can see from the chart above, I […]
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Date: October 6, 2015
Post-Crash Behavior Still Following My Scenario
Immediately after the August 24 mini crash, I opined that the bottoming process could begin as early as that very week, which it did. I also wrote extensively and did a fair amount of media discussions on the topic. So far, the major indices are nicely following that scenario which had stocks rallying off the crash low into a September peak and then revisiting that low by the middle of October. Remember the comparisons I offered from 1987, 1989, 1994, […]
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Date: October 5, 2015
Are We There Yet?
This feels like a family car trip with one of the kids constantly asking, “are we there yet?” Much of what I have to say remains the same. Stocks have almost perfectly followed my post mini-crash scenario since August 24 and they are now in the zone for a possible successful retest of those lows between now and say, October 15. With the major indices opening sharply higher today, talk will once again focus on IF we have seen the […]
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Date: September 30, 2015
Two Market Scenarios for the Quarter
In the last issue of Street$marts, I wrote about stocks being in a “murky” period for the next few weeks. I am going to pat myself on the back and say it has certainly looked “murky” since early October although I wish I had been more aggressive in taking action. The dark clouds have recently dissipated and the sun is starting to pop out. Once the decline began, it looked like the second half of October would see a low and that’s […]
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Date: October 21, 2014
So Far So Good!
Just two ago, I wrote about the stock market “groping” for a bottom and laid out a scenario for that to begin on Wednesday. The beaten down Russell 2000 was the key as it very quietly had been outperforming the market for three days. That behavior is not what you typically see if a crash was unfolding. Our indicators and systems backed up my own thoughts and our equity strategies went to maximum exposure at the close on Wednesday. When […]
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Date: October 17, 2014
BOOM! Now High Yield is Key
What a great day in the city on Wednesday! I knew I was okay when Metro North actually ran on time to start the day. I did two segments with the good folks at Yahoo Finance, one discussing the most overused word in investing, “bubble”, and the other on the current state of the bull market. As they are posted I will share the links. I headed to the floor of the NYSE in the afternoon for a quick stint […]
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Date: October 9, 2014
The “All Important” Employment Report
Today is Jobs Friday and the pundits are usually out in force predicting the number of non-farm payroll jobs created. That’s one area I usually steer clear of as it is probably the most volatile, inconsistent and unpredictable economic number of the month. What’s even more futile is forecasting the market’s reaction, which is sometimes a head scratcher. Last month’s number was a complete and utter disaster, but the stock market barely shrugged and tested the highs the following week. […]
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Date: February 7, 2014
