Internal or Momentum Bottom Being Hammered In
Stocks continue to be very volatile, one of the primary casualties of higher interest rates, but certainly from the dislocations in the energy market, which has seen an epic and historic collapse. I imagine that the large oil-based sovereign wealth funds in Norway, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar have been massive sellers of global equities this month to continue to fund their social programs in the face of imploding energy prices. The relentless and indiscriminate selling has all the hallmarks […]
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Date: January 21, 2016
Tuesday’s Binary Outcome
On Friday, we finally had the “puke” opening. There was some panic, desperation and despondency. In the “fight or flight” debate, there were more than a few investors taking to the skies! Given the very heightened volatility, Tuesday’s trading should not be quiet. Rather, the stock market should see another large move. Scenario A has the bulls putting up a real stand right from the opening, perhaps an old fashioned “gap and go” snap back rally. On the other end […]
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Date: January 18, 2016
Puke Opening is Here
As the relentless selling pressure in stocks continues, my last few pieces talked about getting closer to at least a trading low, but not quite there yet. Even as stocks bounced back on Thursday, the tune was the same. I was waiting for that really ugly, panic driven opening where stocks saw there largest point decline of the correction. As I type this, the Dow looks to be down 400 points and this certainly qualifies as a “puke” opening. While […]
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Date: January 15, 2016
Stocks Bouncing But No Bottom Yet
I won’t rehash what’s been plastered all over the media. Selling in stocks has been relentless and the worst start to any year ever. It “feels” like the market is collapsing and harkens back to 2008. As I like to repeat from time to time, feel is not real. Yes, the major indices are down upper single digits in 2016, but I would argue that if this decline occurred any other time of the year, it would not be getting […]
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Date: January 14, 2016
Santa Claus is in the House!
The last week of 2015. I hope you have been enjoying the holidays. The major stock market indices continue to behave as I spelled out over the past few weeks. Santa Claus came right on schedule and the seasonal trend has him taking a break to close the year with some mild strength to begin 2016. While I was very pleased that stocks reversed early last week and have followed through on the gains, we still need to see all […]
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Date: December 29, 2015
Santa Needs to Get a Movin’
Since the Fed wrongly raised interest rates last week, the stock market has done a good job of following the script. First, it rallied sharply from 2pm to the close on the day of the announcement. Then, it saw weakness on Thursday and Friday followed by strength to begin the new and holiday shortened week. While that all looks nice, I did not expect the amount of weakness seen when combining Thursday and Friday. That definitely bothered me regardless of […]
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Date: December 22, 2015
Underwhelming Rally but Don’t Count Out the Bulls
Friday’s huge rally was fraught with bits of weakness. The ratio of stocks going up to down was just 2:1 on a 2%+ day when it should have been much, much stronger. The ratio of volume in those stocks should have been multiples stronger. New highs to new lows didn’t move much at all. The rally was narrow and underwhelming beneath the surface. As has been the case since summer, the stocks with the heaviest weightings in the cap weighted […]
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Date: December 7, 2015
Yellen Dousing Dollar & Stocks
After a big day for the bulls on Tuesday that did not close above the levels I spoke about to cause a spurt, stocks reversed on Wednesday and it looks really ugly on a chart. Bears will point to similar reversals at the major peaks in 2000 and 2007, which is true, but these kinds of reversals also occur routinely throughout a bull market. In analyzing their predictive power, they certainly have led to some short-term weakness, but the longer […]
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Date: December 3, 2015
Spurt or Pullback???
Stocks continue to digest the gains made in early November without giving up against the negative news backdrop. That’s a well supported, resilient market. When the major indices close above their November highs, we should see a quick spurt to the upside. If they fail to do so this week, I would not be surprised at all to see a mild 1-3% pullback lasting a week or two to set up the Santa Claus rally into 2016. My theme remains […]
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Date: December 1, 2015
Stocks are no Turkey
I hope everyone had a great and meaningful Thanksgiving. As I type this, my stomach has settled down and I am just about ready for an evening snack at halftime of the Packers/Bears game before they honor Brett Favre. Friday is another seasonally strong day on the heels of Wednesday. Don’t forget that the stock market closes at 1pm est. In my previous post I mentioned that the seasonal stats don’t forecast magnitude, just direction. What a perfect example as […]
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Date: November 26, 2015
