Bears Still Struggling to Make Progress
Happy snow day to those of you in the northeast! For several weeks, there have been all kinds of studies which indicate that the risk/reward for stocks is skewed to the downside over the coming weeks and few months. The same can be said of some daily studies. When I say skewed, I mean favors a typical and normal pullback of 2-5%. Yet each time the bulls look tired, they somehow prevent the bears from making any progress. In the […]
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Date: February 9, 2017
Bulls Win Big on Friday But Still Not Ready
Very nice day for the bulls on Friday as the monthly jobs report was really the Goldilocks scenario. Not too strong and not too weak. The U.S. saw decent growth with some mild revisions lower but almost no wage inflation which caused expectations for a March rate hike by the Fed to decline to roughly 20%. I would not hang my hat on the Fed staying put in March. There are many data points between now and then and I […]
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Date: February 6, 2017
Dow 20,000 Already Forgotten
Last week, the Dow hit my longstanding target of 20,000, first given on CNBC’s Squawk Box in 2010 just after I forecast that the Fed’s balance sheet would hit a staggering $5 trillion. If we see 5 consecutive closes above 20,000, the next upside target will be created. Since Dow 20K, it’s been even more Donald Trump and politics on the financial channels. I think the Q4 GDP report is now totally forgotten. Market sentiment had become a little frothy […]
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Date: January 30, 2017
Dow Breaking Out & Q4 GDP Miss the Last
After hitting yet another one of my upside targets, 20,000, the Dow has yet to pause. Five straight closes above 20,000 will open up new upside targets before the bull market ends. As you can see below, the Dow has been consolidating sideways since early December. That’s often referred to as a flat top or box. When prices finally exceed the flat top, they oftentimes see a spurt in the same direction. Although momentum is on the side of the […]
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Date: January 27, 2017
Bulls Wake Up and Attack
No sooner did the ink dry on Monday’s piece than the market quickly tossed aside my thinking for a bit more of a pullback before racing to new highs. Since December 13, four out five of the major stock market indices have been digesting post-election gains and pulling back in a very orderly fashion. Only the NASDAQ 100 has really moved meaningfully higher. After a morning of selling on Monday, the bull pushed stocks higher into the close. On Tuesday, […]
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Date: January 25, 2017
“Buy the Election, Sell the Inauguration”
That’s been a popular refrain over the past week as stocks continue in stall mode, basically since December 13. In fact, the Dow and Russell 2000 are now down on the new year. Only the NASDAQ 100 which I thought would go from laggard to leader has had the power to forge ahead in 2017. However, that index is now looking a bit tired and in need of a little rest which won’t be so bad. For most of the […]
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Date: January 23, 2017
Bulls & Bears Even But Opex Tilts Down
Bulls and bears come into the new week on equal footing, both still fighting it out in the trading range. The bulls have done nothing wrong to indicate anything more than a 3-5% pullback and the bears will have a lot to prove at that point. Since early December, the small cap Russell 2000 has lagged and the bulls are getting to that point where it’s time to step up. Clearly, the unpopular NASDAQ 100 has been the leadership index. […]
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Date: January 17, 2017
Two Market Scenarios for the Quarter
In the last issue of Street$marts, I wrote about stocks being in a “murky” period for the next few weeks. I am going to pat myself on the back and say it has certainly looked “murky” since early October although I wish I had been more aggressive in taking action. The dark clouds have recently dissipated and the sun is starting to pop out. Once the decline began, it looked like the second half of October would see a low and that’s […]
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Date: October 21, 2014
Something for the Bears to Hang their Hats on
The Dow hit yet another all time high today and there hasn’t been a 10%+ correction in 35 months. When stocks opened sharply lower on July 10th, the bears came roaring out of hibernation calling for everything from a 10% correction to the end of the bull market. It was a sea of ugly red prices on my screen due to Portuguese bank worries, and weak China data. That decline didn’t even last a full day. Nor did the decline […]
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Date: July 16, 2014
Bears Out of Hibernation
Stocks open the day with the largest down opening in some time due to Portuguese bank problems, slowing Eurozone concerns and less than stellar data out of China. As hard to believe as it is, I have already seen a few articles calling this the beginning of a new bear market. Geez, how many time have we heard that over the past 64 months! What we are seeing now is a routine, healthy and normal 3-7% pullback. Short-term downside risk […]
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Date: July 10, 2014
