Is it Crash Helmet Time???
For the past three weeks, my message has been one of a little short-term concern against the backdrop of much higher prices to follow. That remains unchanged. Market sentiment had become frothy, meaning that too many people had become too confident in the stock market. We saw that in both the individual investor and newsletter writer sentiment surveys. Options traders were betting overwhelmingly on higher prices over the short-term. Corporate insiders were selling much more than they were buying. Traders […]
Read More
Date: March 11, 2015
Blue Skies
Another day, more blue skies for the major stock market indices. The pain for the bears has to be strong and growing, but I have yet to see evidence that they are throwing in the towel en mass. And price action has done absolutely wrong to suggest anything more than a trading pullback. As I mentioned the other day, I think it pays to be a little more vigilant here, not that I think we are going to see a […]
Read More
Date: February 23, 2015
Time to Be Careful
Before I dive in, let me be very clear, I remain bullish over most time frames. Nothing has changed. Five straight closes above 18,000 as I spelled out on CNBC last week and many times over the past six months may create a slingshot to 20,000 this year. The bull market is old and wrinkly but not dead. Same old lines from me. The headline about being “careful” is more about the short-term and because stocks just broke out to […]
Read More
Date: February 18, 2015
Bears Trying to Run It In
Congratulations to the New England Patriots! I didn’t root for you, but a win is a win, even in the face of the single worst offensive play called in the history of big game sports. Stocks begin the week with the bears in mild control even following Thursday’s reversal. Early this week should be very key to see which way the short-term winds blow. On the S&P 500 and its weaker cousin, the Dow, price has declined to the same […]
Read More
Date: February 2, 2015
Bears to Pounce at the Open
Stocks look to open sharply lower this morning on a variety of news events, although none that are singularly that bad. Greece is in the headlines yet again and frankly, if they are going to exit, let’s just get it over with. Their economy and market is not even a rounding error in the grand scheme of things, but a Grexit will open the door to the southern European countries saber rattling about an exit if they are not bailed […]
Read More
Date: January 27, 2015
Feel is not Real
I have been playing golf for the better part of of 40+ years and I have taken my fair share of lessons. I can’t tell you how many times I have commented to my teacher that something “doesn’t feel right” or this “feels weird.” And each and every time the response has been the same; “feel is not real.” If you typically walk with a slight hunch, try walking really tall to understand what I mean. It feels funny, but […]
Read More
Date: December 8, 2014
Who Turned the Lights Out… Again
Yesterday, I wanted to see what leadership emerged after Wednesday’s big surge and more importantly, I wanted definite confirmation from the plan vanilla high yield (junk) bond mutual funds that the canary wasn’t dying. That was before the open. I have to say that the depth and tenaciousness of Thursday’s decline definitely caught me off guard. While giving back 25% or even 50% of the big rally would not have out of the ordinary, losing all of it certainly was. […]
Read More
Date: October 10, 2014
History Says 15% Chance of 8-11% Decline Right Now
Today (Wednesday) I am excited to head to New York City for a day full of media (and a tiny bit of shopping). My first stop is with the good folks at Yahoo Finance to create two or three segments on what’s hot now. I know for sure we will do one on market bubbles which should be controversial and interesting. I imagine there will be one about the bull market or Fed and then one on the hot story […]
Read More
Date: October 8, 2014
Bears Stepped It Up
For most of September, I discussed the very negative seasonal period that ended on September 30. Remember, poor seasonals with strongly negative short-term trends from the Fed and options expiration usually just provide a headwind or accelerant to a market move already in place. The second half of September was certainly a poor showing for the bulls, which is part of the reason October began so weak. For those who watch the charts, the Dow and S&P 500 visited their […]
Read More
Date: October 2, 2014
Beware of Most Negative Seasonals of the Year
For the past three weeks I have written about the need for a short-term pullback in stocks. I have been and remain positive on the intermediate and long-term view for the stock market. Remember, pullbacks can come by stocks going sideways for a period of time or by price declining enough to entice buyers back in. In the major indices we saw a split pullback with the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 going sideways while the S&P 400 and […]
Read More
Date: September 22, 2014
