Tag: stockmarket scenario

Two Market Scenarios for the Quarter

In the¬†last issue¬†of Street$marts, I wrote about stocks being in a “murky” period for the next few weeks. I am going to pat myself on the back and say it has certainly looked “murky” since early October although I wish I had been more aggressive in taking action. The dark clouds have recently dissipated and the sun is starting to pop out. Once the decline began, it looked like the second half of October would see a low and that’s […]   Read More
Date: October 21, 2014

Getting Anywhere?

Early Monday I wrote about the market setting up for a bounce. And that was certainly the case on Monday. Tuesday, however, was a different story as stocks gave back all of Monday’s gains and then some. Wednesday’s solid action, once again, puts the stock market on bounce alert. I keep using the word “bounce” instead of rally because it looks like there needs to be some more work on the downside before the current pullback wraps up. With each […]   Read More
Date: August 7, 2014

Monday is Bounce Day

After some normal volatility on Friday, the bulls held their own and are positioned to see some green as the trading week opens. There are two scenarios I am watching here. The first is the lows hit on Friday. If the major indices close below those levels sooner than later, we should see some trap door, elevator shaft, immediate selling. That’s the more bearish path. Scenario number two has the market bouncing for a few days and then rolling over […]   Read More
Date: August 4, 2014

Watching the Bounce

Thursday’s shellacking in the stock market was a bit unusual given how close in time stocks were to all time highs. As I mentioned in Street$marts, my screen was a complete sea of red except for the instruments that go up when stocks go down. As I have over said over and over and over, based on history, the bull market remains alive. In the short-term, it looks like the best case for the bulls would be a few days […]   Read More
Date: August 1, 2014

2nd Fed Trend a Success… Pullback is Here

Yesterday, I wrote about the Fed statement day trends. History suggested, a pre announcement market of +-0.50% which was spot on with the day closing green; it closed neutral. Today, the post Fed model called for lower prices which is spot on as well. This is all in the context of the pullback I forecast two days ago. Today’s action so far is nasty with my entire screen red except for the items that go up during a down market. […]   Read More
Date: July 31, 2014

Beginning to Feel Like a Pullback

As you know, I have been uber bullish on stocks here for a long while. It’s time to temporarily temper that enthusiasm for the market to repair a bit of short-term damage. I DO NOT BELIEVE THE BULL MARKET IS OVER! Sorry to yell, but I know that is going to be the first question I get. From my seat the bull market remains reasonably healthy, albeit old and wrinkly, and should live on into 2015 with much higher prices […]   Read More
Date: July 29, 2014

Something for the Bears to Hang their Hats on

The Dow hit yet another all time high today and there hasn’t been a 10%+ correction in 35 months. When stocks opened sharply lower on July 10th, the bears came roaring out of hibernation calling for everything from a 10% correction to the end of the bull market. It was a sea of ugly red prices on my screen due to Portuguese bank worries, and weak China data. That decline didn’t even last a full day. Nor did the decline […]   Read More
Date: July 16, 2014

Bears Out of Hibernation

Stocks open the day with the largest down opening in some time due to Portuguese bank problems, slowing Eurozone concerns and less than stellar data out of China. As hard to believe as it is, I have already seen a few articles calling this the beginning of a new bear market. Geez, how many time have we heard that over the past 64 months! What we are seeing now is a routine, healthy and normal 3-7% pullback. Short-term downside risk […]   Read More
Date: July 10, 2014

Bull Market’s Peak

The stock market hits the new week with a tiny headwind from post holiday seasonality. Last Thursday’s solid employment report finally got at least some bulls to celebrate, but it’s still very muted. At Dow 17,000 after a 10,000 point rally in the market, you would think that the majority would be in a good mood, even giddy. But that’s just not the case. Before the bull market ends, history suggests a 10%+ correction, which we haven’t seen yet. And […]   Read More
Date: July 7, 2014

Dow 18,000 Next as Twitter, Investors, Advisors and Media Root for Bears

Small Caps Play Catch Up in BIG Way When we last left off, the major stock market indices were all playing nicely together except for the small cap Russell 2000 which had seen a full fledged 10% correction, but was beginning to bounce. The performance of that one index was a key ingredient to the bears’ negative stance on the market. At that time, here and on the blog, I dismissed the Russell’s warning and went so far as to […]   Read More
Date: July 7, 2014