Bulls Immediately Step Up – Inflation HOTTTT
In Monday’s post, I offered that if the pullback was normal, routine and healthy, the bulls would immediately step up. What I didn’t realize was they were going to bull rush the bears literally right away on Monday morning. And with that came the media’s gush over the “historic” price reversal. No it wasn’t. When I look at the major stock market indices, all of them show constructive behavior this week. And as I wrote about in my forecast for […]
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Date: January 12, 2022
2022 Is Already Frustrating
On Friday we learned that the employment picture continues to disappoint. 199,000 new jobs were created in December which was almost 300,000 below the whisper number economists were expecting. This is not a new trend, but one that has been in place for almost a year. Wages soared yet again to 5% over the past year and that is both cause to celebrate for the worker but be concerned about inflation. Far too many do not understand how wages impact […]
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Date: January 10, 2022
Why Karen’s Decision About Social Security is Just Plain Wrong
Your golden years can be a wonderful time in your life. You can enjoy the fruits of decades of labor, and prudent investing. Your retirement income is greatly determined by your savings, investing, pensions and other retirement savings. Social security is also a major determinant of your retirement income, and therefore, your standard of living as a retiree. But, before you begin taking social security, consider the pitfalls of taking it too early! “Karen” is a friend of a client […]
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Date: January 10, 2022
Santa Came, Q4 & 2021 Also Up – Forecasting 2022
In November and December the media was all abuzz with the Santa Claus Rally (SCR). Would Santa arrive? Stocks were under mild pressure several times although many pundits repeatedly forecast that the highs were in for the year and there would be no year-end rally. In fact, a 10% correction had already started. Well, we all know how that ended for the bears and naysayers. Not too well. And we all know that there was no accountability for those who […]
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Date: January 7, 2022
2022 Fearless Forecast – Patience & Quality
Each and every year, I spend some time in Q4 collecting my thoughts about how I see the next 12 months unfolding in the financial markets, economy, etc. Given how much media I did in Q4, most of my forecast is already in the public domain. I am happy to say that this is among the earliest I have actually put it all together in one place. Yeah me! While I do really enjoy looking into my super secret crystal […]
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Date: January 6, 2022
Bulls Should Begin 2022 With a Win
Here we go. 2021 is in the rear view mirror and 2022 begins. The last few minutes of 2021 did not end well for the stock market and it certainly looked like the computer programs were responsible for all of the movement. I fully expect that last woosh lower on the far right side of the chart below to be recovered early on Monday morning. The first trading day of the new year is seasonally very strong by a number […]
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Date: January 3, 2022
NASDAQ The Beast Today – This Is It!
To end 2021 I am going to join Fox Business’ Making Money at 2:55pm today with Ashley Webster in for Charles Payne to discuss what I am doing at year-end and if any of us in the business can perform like Nancy Pelosi’s portfolio. As Kenny Loggins famously said in his song, “This is it! Make no mistake where you are”. I have quoted Loggins dozens of times over the years and my friend, Michael Saul, always gets annoyed by […]
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Date: December 31, 2021
Is Everyone in Aspen or Still in the Hamptons?
In August “everyone” is supposedly in The Hamptons. Where are they supposedly now? Aspen? Vail? Florida? Vermont? The islands? It’s such a crock. I don’t know a single portfolio manager who literally takes off in August or at the end of the year without working. I can tell you this. “Everyone” was in the all hands on deck mode in 2018 for the entire month of December. And let’s not even begin to list all of the big moves we […]
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Date: December 29, 2021
Behavioral Finance: Why Kevin, Janet, Bruce and Carrie Made the Investment Decisions (and Mistakes) They Did
I recently attended a workshop where I had the opportunity to speak with several investors. Four stand out in my memory for the mistakes they made. Do any of them sound a bit like you? Kevin: Aversion to Risk Kevin, in his mid-50s, had always been afraid of the stock market. Most of his retirement money was tied up in fixed income securities, predominantly a mutual fund composed of Treasury bonds and notes. He did invest a little (about […]
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Date: December 27, 2021
Bulls Step Up and Continue Delivering -That Was Fun
I hope you enjoyed a nice three-day holiday weekend and everyone who observed had a great Christmas! Although many Jews head for Chinese food and the movies we have been fortunate enough to be included with Vermont friends and their Christmas feast. This year definitely did not disappoint as I was full after cocktails and appetizers and then had to scarf down my fair share of prime rib and a cornucopia of desserts that would make any foodie drool. I […]
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Date: December 26, 2021
