Calendar FINALLY Turning to 2021 – Careful What You Wish For
If you’re keeping score at home Santa and L5 are +1.13% with L5 ending today. There is a very specific trend for which major stock market indices are suppose to be owned next week which I will share. Today is the last day to realize capital gains and losses for 2020. We have harvested as many losses as we can for 2020 already. In hindsight, we should have been even more proactive early in 2020 during the Corona Crash. As […]
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Date: December 31, 2020
Greed & Euphoria Still Present – Foundation Beginning to Crumble
It’s odd that stocks look tired at this time of year. The normal trend is to see a mild and gentle drift higher into January, and perhaps that is what we are seeing if you just look at price action. However, the stock market’s foundation which I have called solid and strong has and is weakening. At best, it is now neutral. Neutral by itself is okay if market sentiment is supportive. The problem is that we now have more […]
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Date: December 30, 2020
Santa Claus’ Time to Call – L5 Results From Paul
Historically, as I have been mentioning for weeks, the market is in the midst of one of the most favorable times of the year. The big picture is positive seasonality from November 1 through April 30 with November and December being especially strong. More granular, late December through early January is even better. And the traditional Santa Claus Rally (SCR) began at the close of trading on December 23rd. That’s five trading days before year-end and the first two trading […]
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Date: December 28, 2020
Top Year-End Financial Tips for 2020
Well, my segment on Fox 61 did not go as planned. My scheduled time got pushed back right into a hard commercial stop and I wasn’t able to offer one of my favorite lists. Instead of crying and breaking my desk, like I did when the Jets won a meaningless football game on Sunday and lost the next great quarterback to come into the NFL, I did the next best thing. I made my own video of my Top Year-End […]
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Date: December 23, 2020
Stocks Down at the Open? Call the Market Police!
On Friday we saw some truly unusual behavior during the final hour of trading. However, with a $675 stock like Tesla joining the S&P 500 with a weighting of 1.52%, the action was more understandable, but no less crazy. I would have expected the final 30 minute surge in the major indices to be unwound this morning. Waking up and seeing a 1-2% decline in the pre-market sets a different tone for the day. That’s the biggest move lower since […]
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Date: December 21, 2020
News Quieting – Volatility to Follow
As we typically see this time of year, the news flow is quieting down and the markets have been even quieter. This trend is supposed to be in place for the rest of the year. The markets may have a day or two where they hit a pocket of air, much like you experience when flying, but overall, the trend is to see a mild drift higher. As I have written about for more than a month, any and all […]
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Date: December 17, 2020
Seasonal Low This Week – Big Bears Still Wrong
As you know I have been writing about this very mild patch of seasonal softness in early to mid-December. Historically, it is ends this week at some point. Given how little stocks have pulled back, it is entirely possible that all we end up seeing is some sideways action with a percent or two on the downside. This is also the period where small caps historically outperform large caps from mid-December through early January. A year ago, I was sounding […]
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Date: December 14, 2020
New Year’s Resolutions: Using What We Learned From 2020 (And 1986)
The year 2020 will not soon be forgotten. For some, the market created significant new wealth. But for many folks, the year was terrible in terms of health and finances. Even so, it’s an ill wind that blows no good, so we would do well to pay attention to the year’s hard-learned lessons. Perhaps the best way to do this is to apply some new wisdom to our 2021 New Year’s resolutions. Another year worth studying is 1986, leading up […]
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Date: December 14, 2020
Seasonal Headwind But Junk is Stress Free
Stocks continue to digest and very mildly pull back. The NASDAQ 100 has been the “worst”, but still barely noticeable so far. As I keep mentioning we are in a seasonally soft time of year for another week. That doesn’t mean crash, just a mild headwind. I fully expect the media to again report on the plethora of negative news. Record COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Stimulus stalled for the umpteenth time. Government runs out of money tonight. But keep […]
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Date: December 11, 2020
When the Ducks Quack, Wall Street Feeds Them
For the past week or so I have been writing about a mild seasonal soft patch that usually occurs right about now. It’s the post-Thanksgiving to mid-December period of digestion where we typically see the rally moderate, flatten out and then mildly pull back. All the signs were there that the peak was on Wednesday morning. Should the major indices immediately recover and find new highs, my thesis will be wrong. Otherwise, I will look for a low next week […]
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Date: December 10, 2020
