1991 & 1992 Offering Good Clues Too
Yesterday, I wrote about the analog with 1980. If I change my research parameters from presidential elections to similar price behavior during any year, I come up with a very different analog. The current market is first below and you can see the BREXIT bottom in the middle, followed by the big summer rally and period of digestion before the current rally began on the right side. In 1991, we saw a massive rally after the U.S. and its allies […]
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Date: December 1, 2016
1980 a Good Analog for 2016
Since the election the financial media and pundits have been fascinated with labeling the stock market’s strong run as The Trump Rally. I get it. And it’s really only a silly name anyway. However, the market isn’t rallying just because Donald Trump was elected. If the Senate went blue, I would argue that we would seen a muted response. Equally, if not more important, is the fact that the GOP now controls Congress and similar to how the government looked […]
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Date: November 30, 2016
Stock Market Yawning at Recount
After a small gain on Wednesday, the seasonality bulls got their work done on Friday as the strong trend held to form. Without any weakness leading into that trend, it made it too tough for me to play it. However, I did tweet on Friday that taking a small short position at the close for seasonal weakness on Monday seemed like a better risk/reward play. Heading into the new week, we have to be on the lookout for the typical […]
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Date: November 28, 2016
Seasonals Favor Bulls into Weekend
Today and Friday are well known and widely followed seasonally strong days for stocks. That doesn’t mean we should just blindly buy and hope things work out. Stocks have been almost straight up since the election so you can certainly argue that a lot of fuel has been used up, including the last two days. As I mentioned on Monday, if the stock market was down on Tuesday I would have wanted to be long on Wednesday and Friday. That’s […]
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Date: November 23, 2016
Bulls Not Done
The bulls came back from the weekend in a good mood as stocks are rallying into lunch on Monday. While banks are taking a little breather, commodity-related sectors are leading with energy, metals & mining and materials all doing well along with some of the beaten down Hillary sectors, utilities, staples and telecom. High yield bonds are finally showing some oomph and emerging market countries are bouncing. The NYSE A/D Line is showing decent participation. I won’t rehash all the […]
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Date: November 21, 2016
Three Scenarios to Year-End
On the surface, you would think that the past nine days were nine easy days for the bulls. After all, the Dow was up more than 5%. What could be bad? Beneath the surface, there was much wrong with the post-election rally that began the day before the election. To begin with, the Dow was a leading index, followed by the Russell 2000. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 were nothing special. The NASDAQ 100 was actually down over the […]
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Date: November 18, 2016
Clinton Scenario But Trump Portfolio
In several interviews before and after the election, I offered that stocks would decline 3-6% on a Trump victory and a better buying opportunity would come towards Thanksgiving. At the overnight lows as election results were being reported, stocks were 5%. That’s not how I envisioned the pullback occurring, but it did. I certainly did not see the market forming a low overnight and then rallying 8% like a rocket taking off. Overall market directional behavior last week was conforming […]
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Date: November 14, 2016
Another Wrong for Me
Besides misreading the research, my personal electoral opinion was wrong which was not based on research and cold, hard facts.In that email as well as in a subsequent article it just didn’t seem plausible for Trump to win the necessary 270 electoral votes. I said he absolutely needed Florida, North Carolina, Arizona and Ohio which had correctly predicted the last 13 presidential contests. Sweeping those four had a 6% chance of occurring. And even then, he would need to turn […]
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Date: November 11, 2016
Election Model Correct… AGAIN
Thanks to FOX in CT for having me on the day before and the day after Election Day. Below are the two links to the segments. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cbfaTfILVDs&feature=youtu.be https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCI4ZmVWgec&feature=youtu.be The longest election build up in our history is finally over and the outcome was certainly not what the mainstream media and pollsters expected. Throughout October and early November, it was widely expected by ABC, CBS, NBC, MSNBC and CNN that Hillary Clinton would become our 45th president. The major polls offered […]
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Date: November 11, 2016
The Path to 270 & Stock Market Reaction
Don’t forget to vote! Thanks to NBC, ABC and FOX in Connecticut for having me on regarding the election. Each segment was very different and offered new information. The first two interviews are below and I will post the FOX one as soon as I have it. Statistical Model Provides Hints at Presidential Outcome http://wtnh.com/2016/11/06/financial-expert-says-election-could-have-impact-on-stock-market/ It’s been a long two years since the midterm election and I think I can confidently state that the entire country has election fatigue. I […]
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Date: November 8, 2016
