Two Market Scenarios for the Quarter
In the last issue of Street$marts, I wrote about stocks being in a “murky” period for the next few weeks. I am going to pat myself on the back and say it has certainly looked “murky” since early October although I wish I had been more aggressive in taking action. The dark clouds have recently dissipated and the sun is starting to pop out. Once the decline began, it looked like the second half of October would see a low and that’s […]
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Date: October 21, 2014
So Far So Good!
Just two ago, I wrote about the stock market “groping” for a bottom and laid out a scenario for that to begin on Wednesday. The beaten down Russell 2000 was the key as it very quietly had been outperforming the market for three days. That behavior is not what you typically see if a crash was unfolding. Our indicators and systems backed up my own thoughts and our equity strategies went to maximum exposure at the close on Wednesday. When […]
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Date: October 17, 2014
Stock Market Groping for a Low
If you woke up this morning, turned on the computer or TV and saw another Texas healthcare worker with Ebola, European markets under siege yet again and our own stock market futures in collapse, you probably did not feel so great. Anxiety? Panic? As the morning progressed and our stock market opened, your saw an immediate mini panic with the Dow down 370. At the same time, the 10 year treasury note’s yield absolutely and totally collapsed under 2%. That […]
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Date: October 15, 2014
Who Turned the Lights Out… Again
Yesterday, I wanted to see what leadership emerged after Wednesday’s big surge and more importantly, I wanted definite confirmation from the plan vanilla high yield (junk) bond mutual funds that the canary wasn’t dying. That was before the open. I have to say that the depth and tenaciousness of Thursday’s decline definitely caught me off guard. While giving back 25% or even 50% of the big rally would not have out of the ordinary, losing all of it certainly was. […]
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Date: October 10, 2014
BOOM! Now High Yield is Key
What a great day in the city on Wednesday! I knew I was okay when Metro North actually ran on time to start the day. I did two segments with the good folks at Yahoo Finance, one discussing the most overused word in investing, “bubble”, and the other on the current state of the bull market. As they are posted I will share the links. I headed to the floor of the NYSE in the afternoon for a quick stint […]
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Date: October 9, 2014
History Says 15% Chance of 8-11% Decline Right Now
Today (Wednesday) I am excited to head to New York City for a day full of media (and a tiny bit of shopping). My first stop is with the good folks at Yahoo Finance to create two or three segments on what’s hot now. I know for sure we will do one on market bubbles which should be controversial and interesting. I imagine there will be one about the bull market or Fed and then one on the hot story […]
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Date: October 8, 2014
Stocks Trying to Keep Bounce Going
The stock market ended last week with a very nice bounce from the lows seen on Thursday and I discussed in the last update. Market internals were fine, but certainly not great, so far. At this point, the most prominent stock market indices saw yet another pullback that couldn’t gather steam once it approached 5%. While very unusual historically, this has been business as usual since mid 2012. The most important things to watch now are how stocks behave as […]
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Date: October 6, 2014
Bears Stepped It Up
For most of September, I discussed the very negative seasonal period that ended on September 30. Remember, poor seasonals with strongly negative short-term trends from the Fed and options expiration usually just provide a headwind or accelerant to a market move already in place. The second half of September was certainly a poor showing for the bulls, which is part of the reason October began so weak. For those who watch the charts, the Dow and S&P 500 visited their […]
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Date: October 2, 2014
Alibaba, Twitter and Facebook Oh My!
“Hot” IPOs like Alibaba, Twitter and Facebook are usually very emotional, much anticipated and huge financial media events. As I have discussed over and over, emotion in investing can have a very detrimental impact on your portfolio! I went back and found similar, much anticipated, “hot” IPOs to show you what transpired over the coming few months. The results should not be surprising. Twitter really bucked the trend over the past few years. While it initially dropped 20% from its […]
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Date: September 24, 2014
Alibaba… No Bubble to Me
With the Fed meeting, press conference and Scotland out of the way, markets turned to Alibaba’s initial public offering (IPO) to close a very busy week last Friday. Looking at possibly a record $20+ billion IPO, the money had to come from somewhere. And judging by tech stocks behavior over the prior week or so, it certainly looked like institutional investors were paring back holdings to pay for Alibaba. The hugely anticipated IPO priced at $68 and promptly opened at […]
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Date: September 23, 2014
