Post-Crash Behavior Still Following My Scenario
Immediately after the August 24 mini crash, I opined that the bottoming process could begin as early as that very week, which it did. I also wrote extensively and did a fair amount of media discussions on the topic. So far, the major indices are nicely following that scenario which had stocks rallying off the crash low into a September peak and then revisiting that low by the middle of October. Remember the comparisons I offered from 1987, 1989, 1994, […]
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Date: October 5, 2015
Are We There Yet?
This feels like a family car trip with one of the kids constantly asking, “are we there yet?” Much of what I have to say remains the same. Stocks have almost perfectly followed my post mini-crash scenario since August 24 and they are now in the zone for a possible successful retest of those lows between now and say, October 15. With the major indices opening sharply higher today, talk will once again focus on IF we have seen the […]
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Date: September 30, 2015
Was That It?
At their worst levels on Thursday, the major stock indices were bludgeoned and downright ugly. The Dow was down to 16,000 and could have been cracked open like a coconut today had the bulls not mounted a very strong late day charge. The rally was somewhat impressive and leaves open the question of whether we just saw the revisiting of the August lows I have spoken about on CNBC’s Fast Money and written about here. With stocks looking up more […]
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Date: September 25, 2015
Market Behaving as Expected. Bottom Shortly.
In my last update, I opined that the Fed should not raise rates and that whatever they did, the market would end whatever move it was having and reverse in the other direction. First, I am glad that Yellen & Co. did not raise rates. That time will come, but it wasn’t last week. Second, stocks rallied nicely into the Fed meeting and in the moments after the announcement. However, it was the perfect “buy the rumor, sell the news” […]
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Date: September 22, 2015
Market Reaction to Fed Announcement
The big lingering question regarding the Fed meeting after the decision is how to properly position portfolios. If you thought it was tough to get an edge on the rate decision, the markets’ reaction is even more so, which is why I would absolutely not advocate making wholesale changes ahead of the announcement. It’s one thing to flip a coin on the decision, but it’s a whole other thing to get the markets’ reaction correct as well. The four possible […]
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Date: September 17, 2015
Will They or Won’t They
I truly cannot wait until September 17th at 2:01 PM. At that time, the Federal Open Market Committee, aka, the Fed, will make a decision about interest rates. I don’t know anyone who isn’t completely exhausted from all of the Fed talk over the past few months. It’s enough already. How many times do we need to see “Countdown to the Fed Decision”, “Special Report: The Fed”, “Breaking News…”, etc. Are there no other business stories worthy of being discussed […]
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Date: September 17, 2015
Follow Up to Post Crash Behavior
Last week, I wrote a piece here and in Street$marts entitled, Post Crash Behavior Leading to Dow 20,000. If you haven’t read it, I think it’s a worthwhile read (of course I do since I wrote it!) whether you agree with the content or not. Subsequently, I was really excited to join CNBC’s Fast Money to discuss my research. A few things I want to add. I used the word “crash” very liberally in my study. After “bubble”, crash is […]
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Date: September 10, 2015
How I Can Best Protect My Investments as the Markets Tank
The following is an article I wrote for Crains Wealth last week. Investors don’t plan to fail. They fail to plan. Markets typically pullback every month. Most pullbacks are nothing more than innocuous 3% to 5% dips – short bouts of weakness followed by new highs. Every quarter or so, the shallow pullback deepens to a 6% to 9% drop. Occasionally, full-fledged corrections of 10% or more take hold. Every four to five years, a bear market hits that lops […]
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Date: September 4, 2015
Post Crash Behavior Leading to Dow 20,000
The day before Flash Crash II last week, I opined that the bottoming process could begin as early as last week. From my seat, it did. One week removed from the mini crash or crashette and stocks took it hard on the chin again. China was blamed, but that’s only a cover story and coincidence. However, unlike August 24, we did not see another Flash Crash. There was no panic. The selling was fairly orderly, which can be viewed as […]
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Date: September 2, 2015
Down 43% and Up 80% All in 12 Minutes. HFT is to Blame.
I am scheduled to be on Fox Business’ Risk & Reward TODAY, Friday, at 5:25 PM. The topic will be a follow up from the two pieces below on my rant after Monday’s embarrassing open as the Dow crashed 1100 points and the financial system was broken. Flash Crash II – HFT and Computers Run Amok… AGAIN This was a Flash Crash Although it was fruitless, I did some more digging to uncover even more inexcusable and unfair trading. My […]
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Date: August 28, 2015
