Post Crash Behavior Leading to Dow 20,000
The day before Flash Crash II last week, I opined that the bottoming process could begin as early as last week. From my seat, it did. One week removed from the mini crash or crashette and stocks took it hard on the chin again. China was blamed, but that’s only a cover story and coincidence. However, unlike August 24, we did not see another Flash Crash. There was no panic. The selling was fairly orderly, which can be viewed as […]
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Date: September 2, 2015
Down 43% and Up 80% All in 12 Minutes. HFT is to Blame.
I am scheduled to be on Fox Business’ Risk & Reward TODAY, Friday, at 5:25 PM. The topic will be a follow up from the two pieces below on my rant after Monday’s embarrassing open as the Dow crashed 1100 points and the financial system was broken. Flash Crash II – HFT and Computers Run Amok… AGAIN This was a Flash Crash Although it was fruitless, I did some more digging to uncover even more inexcusable and unfair trading. My […]
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Date: August 28, 2015
Flash Crash II – HFT and Computers Run Amok… AGAIN
Well that was certainly fun on Monday! Stocks crashed 1100 points at the open, rallied 800 points and the fell almost 300 points to close down 588 points. Given yesterday’s full Street$marts edition and the two blog posts I did here, I am sure most people were expecting a market update. After all, I did offer 3 Scenarios for Monday’s Trading and the market did end up following scenario number one the most. I will get to the market in […]
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Date: August 25, 2015
Three Scenarios for Monday’s Trading
There are three scenarios I see for Monday and the short-term. 1 – Stocks open sharply lower and then spend the morning stabilizing and closing at least okay. From there, a sharp, snapback rally develops for 1-2 weeks before rolling over again to the downside. The final low is seen next month at lower levels. 2 – Stocks open sharply lower and see one or two feeble and failing rallies during the morning before a full-fledged crash in the afternoon. […]
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Date: August 24, 2015
Don the Crash Helmets! It’s Bloody and Ugly Out There!!
By now, everyone knows that the Dow Jones Industrials fell by 1000 points last week, including a 531 point down day to close the week. More selling lies ahead in the short-term. It’s getting ugly. There’s blood in the streets. Sell what you can not what you want. Margin calls are coming. Maximum pain thresholds are being hit for the individual investor. Panic is here! Before I opine on what it means, let’s put it all in perspective. 531 points […]
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Date: August 24, 2015
My Oh My… The Music Has Stopped
If you listen to the media or have an active Twitter feed about the markets, you would think stocks have literally collapsed into the depths of a bear market. We MUST be down at least 10-15%! Yet as I type this, the S&P 500 has pulled back all of 6%. It’s a little more than half way to the 10% correction level.The Dow hit my initial downside target of sub 17,000 and the S&P 500 is on its way to […]
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Date: August 21, 2015
Semis & NASDAQ 100 at Odds
On Tuesday, the Semiconductor Index as well as its ETF counterparts hit new lows for 2015. This is important for two main reasons. First, historically, as go the semis, so goes the NASDAQ. And as goes the NASDAQ, so goes the broad stock market. It is an intermediate to long-term concern that the semis are more than just struggling. Bull moves typically do not continue without support from the semis. Below you can see the NASDAQ 100 which is anything […]
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Date: August 19, 2015
U.S. Recession Part II – Off the Beaten Path
Continuing the theme of recession, two of my favorite off the beaten path economic indicators are below. The first is the Restaurant Performance Index, which essentially measures the health of the average consumer rather than the Wall Street executive spending $1000+ per couple at Masa or Per Se in New York City. You can see on the left side of the chart that this index steadily weakened well before the crisis hit and was solidly below the 100 level which […]
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Date: August 19, 2015
U.S. Possible Recession Part I – The Consumer
There has been renewed chatter lately about the U.S. economy being on the verge of recession. It’s not as loud as we (wrongly) heard in 2011, but it’s definitely growing. I vividly remember the Economic Cycle Research Institute doing interviews on CNBC, Fox Business, Bloomberg and just about every major financial website, pounding the table that there was almost 100% chance of recession in 2011 and their indicators were “never” wrong. “Never” is one of those words I don’t typically […]
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Date: August 17, 2015
China Devalues – A Look at Currencies
After a good close last Friday and strong stock market showing on Monday, the bulls hard a tough day on Tuesday as China surprised the markets by devaluing their currency, the renminbi or RMB, overnight in an effort to spur on exports. Japan has been trying to do this for several years by massive amounts of money printing. For most of the world, the free market sets the various exchange rates, but a few countries set their own exchange rates, which can […]
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Date: August 14, 2015
