A Crypto Era Ends – And Not Well
Well, well, well. We certainly have too much to cover today. What a few days, culminating with the sensational rags to riches to bankruptcy story of FTX and one of crypto’s most ardent supporters, Sam Bankman-Fried. I’ll say this. A few years ago when I saw him scaling the ranks of crypto architects, I thought he could be one of the posterchilds for crypto and its future blow up. For years I called the whole crypto craze Dotcom 2.0 and […]
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Date: November 11, 2022
***Special Election Update***
I don’t know how I am going to survive not seeing 8 straight commercials targeting MAGA Mike and Liberal Lisa. And who will send me a barrage of texts warning me that Pelosi is wrecking economy and Trump is threatening our democracy. I am so excited that it’s over. I haven’t written much about the actual election because historically, it’s not a market moving event. Those wondering why I haven’t discussed my model for forecasting elections using stock market and […]
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Date: November 9, 2022
Strong Jobs Report But Look Under The Hood
On Friday the government released the employment report. The economy grew by 261,000 jobs versus the 205,000 estimated. On the surface that is great news. However, when you have a Federal Reserve hellbent on destroying demand, this kind of economic strength only feeds fuel to the higher interest rate fire. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% versus the 3.5% estimated. Without getting wonky the birth death model, an algorithmic tool used to estimate new business openings and closings, added […]
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Date: November 7, 2022
Powell on the Warpath
What a crazy week! It’s good to be in CT and not flying again until December although I really do love seeing so many folks. Three trips in October was plenty. Atlanta, Dallas and Florida. With skiing in Vermont scheduled to open in one week, it’s time to start packing up although it certainly does not seem like Mother Nature will be cooperating anytime soon. She is giving all her winter love to the Wasatch and the Utah ski areas. […]
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Date: November 4, 2022
***Q3 Client Update***
Many people like to read my very “brief” quarterly client update which I select excerpts. If you’re one of them, please read on. If not, feel free to stop now. Always happy to hear comments and questions. In baseball, people sometimes refer to a homerun as a roundtripper, having started at home and ending at home. This season Aaron Judge of the 27-time world champion New York Yankees hit 62 roundtrippers, the most ever in the American League and really […]
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Date: November 2, 2022
The Most Bullish 6 Months of the Four-Year Cycle
Happy Halloween! This is usually one of my favorite holidays and we planned to be in costume for a party in NYC over but I was still under the weather. And my new cowboy from the Village People costume was all ready! Today is the final day of the month and it has been a seasonally weak day. If history holds serve, Monday is down and then the next four days are up. The stock market is also starting the […]
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Date: October 31, 2022
Market Builds On The Bottom & Still No Recession
I came back Dallas very late Tuesday night and was definitely under the weather. I could feel it building and building for days.Thankfully, it’s not Covid and my doctor said I should be ready to go for Halloween. Traveling isn’t fun when you’re sick. Flying downright stinks. Flight delays from DFW to NYC were just icing on the cake. However, I did have a great trip to NAAIM’s annual Outlook conference which I chaired. I learned a lot, multiples more […]
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Date: October 28, 2022
Confounding The Masses
The bulls came out in force on Friday aided by what was considered to be dovish comments by some Fed members regarding future interest rates hikes. At least that’s what the media attributed the rally to. The reality is that the markets were already set up to rally, but just needed a spark to ignite the gas. Volume came in heavy, but let’s remember that it was the expiration of options where volume typically surges. As I wrote last week, […]
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Date: October 24, 2022
More Signs Of a Bottom, Yankees & Saying Goodbye
The stock market has been down 5 straight Fridays and 8 out of the last 9. That in itself tells you all you need to know about market confidence, or lack thereof. That’s also what happens during a decline that leads into the bottoming process and finally a or the bottom. Most of you know I never shy away from the camera. In fact, I don’t think I have ever met a media story I didn’t like. And it’s not […]
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Date: October 21, 2022
FedEx Offering Many Market and Economic Clues
After one of the wilder stock market days on Thursday, stocks could not follow through on Friday after an up opening. While I wouldn’t say it is the end of the world, stocks absolutely, positively must hold above Thursday’s low. Otherwise, the bears take control yet again. This Friday is the expiration for October options. Seasonally, it is a strong period through Thursday’s close, so it will be telling if stocks stink it up. What’s interesting as the new week […]
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Date: October 17, 2022
