***SPECIAL Fed Update – Recession & 50% Rally in Stocks***
Here we go again. Today is Fed day. I am sure we will hear that it is the single most important decision the Fed has ever made. Blah, blah, blah. Powell and the Fed have been crystal clear, of late. Rates will continue higher until something is broken, or thereabouts. Before I get further into this, let me state that the model for today is plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm and then a rally. Given that stocks have sold […]
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Date: September 21, 2022
Weakest Week – Weakest Month – Weakest Year
If you ever wanted to see how the four big quarterly expirations can impact stock prices, look no further than last Friday afternoon. Stocks opened lower and traded sideways until the lunchtime lull ended around 2pm. And then the big players had to square up their books into the close which likely caused the sharp rally into 4pm. We always hear pundits whine and moan about the computer algorithms, especially when downside movements are exacerbated. We rarely investors complain on […]
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Date: September 19, 2022
Stocks Cranky as 2-Year Note Soars Again
On Wednesday I shared that huge, outsized plunges like we saw on Tuesday do not typically mark the final low. We didn’t have to wait long as stocks fell again on Thursday below Tuesday’s low and Friday’s open looks to be another very weak one. I mentioned how important the U.S. dollar was to the markets and how seeing it peak was essential for stocks and bonds to form a low. Today, let’s look at the 2-year treasury note. It’s […]
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Date: September 16, 2022
Stocks Collapse, Bottom Not In & Fox Business Calls
First, I am super excited to join my friend and the most dapper man on TV, Charles Payne, on Fox Business between 2 & 3pm today discussing the mini-crash, what lies ahead and where opportunities lie for investors. Well, well, well as my daughter used to say all the time as a toddler when trying to explain herself out of something. Tuesday was certainly an interesting day. The Consumer Price Index didn’t cooperate as so many pundits had predicted. And […]
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Date: September 14, 2022
9-11, Queen E, Greenback & What August Portends
Before I dive into the matters at hand, yesterday was 9-11. Every year, either live or DVR, I watch the names being read of those lost and listen for my old friends’ names. It’s a solemn reminder to Never Forget and as a firm continue to support top notch 9-11 charities like Tunnel to Towers. As we have in the past, we will donate 100% of the profits for the day to these causes on behalf of our clients. 35 […]
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Date: September 12, 2022
For The Economy, The Worst is Yet to Come
In my last update on Tuesday, I spoke about how crummy the stock market looked but that it was oversold enough to bounce this week. In addition, I said that when August closes weak, the odds heavily favor a post-Labor Day bounce. And the market has had a nice week for the bulls with pre-market showing good gains to begin the day. While the S&P 500 may have room to move up to 4100-4150, I do not believe the September […]
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Date: September 9, 2022
Deluge
Labor Day weekend in New England is always bittersweet as the unofficial end of summer and back to school. The drought-stricken Northeast is finally getting some relief and currently in a deluge. I think we have 5 inches of rain so far and it’s still coming down in buckets. The stock market has been no different of late with a deluge of its own, falling almost 9% since the mid-August peak and back to down 19% on the year. Some […]
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Date: September 6, 2022
September is a Cruel Month
The cruel month of September is here and it’s uglier when the month begins in a downtrend like it is now. August ended up working out similar to what I wrote about a month ago. On average September is down more than 1% with 50 out of the last 90 being lower overall. In a downtrend, 27/38 have been lower with losses exceeding 3%. In midterm election years, 60% of Septembers have been down. If you’re looking for a bright […]
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Date: September 2, 2022
Powell Hangover Continues
The risk markets continue their post-Powell decline from Friday. The S&P 500 has just about reached its short-term downside target of roughly 3950, but we have not seen a solid attempt at a low just yet. Last week I was concerned about the poor action in junk bonds and that continued this week, so much so that we were forced to unwind our various positions at the same time as we were reducing stock market exposure. August ended up playing […]
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Date: August 31, 2022
Powell Pours Cold Water on The Markets
On Friday, I came in with a very specific plan for the day. I was looking to be a seller overall, but I really wanted to see how the markets reacted to Fed Chair Jay Powell’s speech rather than what he actually said. First, I was surprised at just how hawkish and stern his remarks were. I kept waiting for the “but” or “however” which never came. He never even hinted at the elusive soft landing like we saw in […]
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Date: August 29, 2022
