Is This April 2008 Again? Answering Your Questions
Stocks continue to act very well off of the Fed week bottom. Momentum has been powerful and they have done nothing wrong. Heck, the S&P 500 is only about 6% from new highs. How many people noticed that? The headlines remain awful. Russia/Ukraine, inflation, supply chain. It’s ugly. I think famed investor Carl Icahn actually said he sees “recession or worse” coming up. I am not sure what that means exactly, but it sounds pretty dire. And yet stocks have […]
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Date: March 25, 2022
2 Years Ago Today – Calling A Bottom
Let’s start off by recognizing that two years ago today was the COVID Crash bottom. I remember writing a post on this blog over the weekend how the downside momentum was waning although price continued lower, a key indication of an impending turn. Then there was the insanity from the paid actor pundits on those trading TV shows. There were guys literally falling over themselves to give the lowest target for the S&P 500. 1500 was shared by many. Some […]
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Date: March 23, 2022
Stocks Set to Soar Over Next 12
Let me start off by sharing these high energy and fun segments from my visits to Fox Business and Yahoo. Market bottom coming. No recession. Consumer psyche already damaged as inflation peaks. Stocks have certainly rocketed off the lows from last Monday, precisely in the window of opportunity I wrote about for almost two months. I know I was crystal clear when I said that the February 24th bottom looked like the secondary and more important bottom from the January […]
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Date: March 21, 2022
Stocks Rally Three Straight
As you know I have been targeting this week all quarter for the point where stocks begin to go up out of the bottom and not into the low or sideways. The last three days have seen 1%+ rallies for stocks. Not bad, but I am still not totally convinced it is off to the races again. While I do still believe Q2 is going to be a win for the bulls, there remain a few weeks to get to […]
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Date: March 18, 2022
***SPECIAL FED UPDATE – Rates Going Up, Powell Still Chasing***
Before I get into my comments about the Fed meeting, let’s start with what the model says for today’s action which seems to be of interest to many people. On every Fed day, the model says plus or minus 0.50% until 2pm. With pre-market action we are looking at well north of that. Post 2pm, we are supposed to rally, however, given the big rally on Tuesday and what looks to be a strong opening and possible morning, the odds […]
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Date: March 16, 2022
Junk Bonds Need Help
It’s finally here, at least the week is here. It’s Fed week which should redirect some of the market chatter from Russia/Ukraine. While the media remains acutely focused on geopolitical events and Wall Street is falling over itself cutting their year-end S&P 500 targets, Jay Powell and his minions are set to begin a new interest rate hike cycle on Wednesday. That’s much more important to our markets and economy. I always literally laugh out loud when I see Wall […]
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Date: March 14, 2022
Stocks Trading Heavy – High Yield at New Lows
On the surface stocks remain all over the map, but stepping away from the trees for a minute, they really haven’t gone anywhere up or down. The February high stands. The February low stands. The market does, however, feel on the heavy side which is what we see early rallies are sold and afternoons are weak. Very quietly, small caps have been leading giving solace to the bulls. That’s not enough for me without some upside progress. High yield bonds […]
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Date: March 11, 2022
Seeds of an Oil Peak
In Monday’s long video I spoke about energy and the likelihood of the commodity suddenly peaking. It could be now or next week or next month, but the price action and sentiment indicated end of move behavior rather than anything else. On Tuesday, Congress and President Biden banned Russian oil imports. Then financial channel CNBC ran a special called Oil Shock. While I am not saying the high is here, this is how in tune the country is about the […]
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Date: March 9, 2022
Evidence Mounts For a Bottom But Something Doesn’t Feel Right
Two days ago, investors, or at least my Twitter feed, were starting to get a little more bullish. Thursday’s action was not constructive although it certainly seems like we go up then down then up then down. Yesterday felt like the peak after the first bounce from the January 24th low. And Friday is not looking so hot to begin the day. I was encouraged that our models showed improvement after the latest low, but one of our aggressive ones […]
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Date: March 4, 2022
More Evidence of a Bottom
Day to day volatility continues, however, price has not done much over the past three days. Russia/Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines, but that’s taking the eyes off the ball. I have written it here and said it in the media many times that the vast majority of the stock market correction is related to the Fed and not geopolitical events. It wasn’t long ago when all the Fed pundits were sure we would see 6, 7 and even 8 […]
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Date: March 2, 2022
