Evidence Mounts For a Bottom But Something Doesn’t Feel Right
Two days ago, investors, or at least my Twitter feed, were starting to get a little more bullish. Thursday’s action was not constructive although it certainly seems like we go up then down then up then down. Yesterday felt like the peak after the first bounce from the January 24th low. And Friday is not looking so hot to begin the day. I was encouraged that our models showed improvement after the latest low, but one of our aggressive ones […]
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Date: March 4, 2022
More Evidence of a Bottom
Day to day volatility continues, however, price has not done much over the past three days. Russia/Ukraine continues to dominate the headlines, but that’s taking the eyes off the ball. I have written it here and said it in the media many times that the vast majority of the stock market correction is related to the Fed and not geopolitical events. It wasn’t long ago when all the Fed pundits were sure we would see 6, 7 and even 8 […]
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Date: March 2, 2022
Cherry Picked Indicators Screaming Buy
Good morning everyone. It’s always a good Monday when I can get out of bed without too many aches and pains from skiing. I did more reading over the weekend than I have since COVID first spread and I found it so interesting how the opinions about the Russian invasion were across the spectrum. It was everything from Putin is cognitively impaired and going to launch nukes to Putin is a genius, sending only a fraction of the troops into […]
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Date: February 28, 2022
Steep & Deep
I had hoped to get something posted this morning, but duty called, in the form of potentially the biggest storm of the crummy winter in Vermont. So, like any hearty and addicted skier, I had to chase the powder with my mini me son in tow. Lifts open at 8 so we had to be lining up by 7:30am to get first tracks. And the ski gods smiled on us as we rode up with a family friend who is […]
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Date: February 25, 2022
Buy When The Bullets Fly
Never been known to mince words nor waffle, here is my segment from Friday with the good folks at Yahoo Finance on what’s going on and what to expect. Market ‘is all about the Fed,’ not geopolitics Markets return from a nice and long holiday weekend with tremendous pre-market volatility. As I watched the action on Sunday night, Monday and Monday evening I was a bit surprised by the massive swings. I can’t believe traders are moving big money around […]
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Date: February 22, 2022
Trader’s Market Continues – Beware Junk
Last month the stock market plunged followed by a sharp snap back this month. As I wrote the other day, stocks were really in no man’s land, caught between the lines in the sand. After Thursday’s big rout by the bears, the market is once again close to new lows for the week. While I still don’t believe stocks are ready to revisit the January mini-crash lows just yet, it’s not a hill I am willing to die on either. […]
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Date: February 18, 2022
No Man’s Land – Patience Required
While the media credited Russian troops seen leaving the border with Ukraine as cause for stocks to rally, the stock market was in a position where it was SUPPOSED to rally as I wrote the other day. Right now, they are somewhat in no man’s land and I do not have strong conviction as to what is coming in the very short-term. We have higher lows and lower highs which eventually will lead to a big move. Right now, we […]
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Date: February 16, 2022
Markets “SHOULD” Rally – Junk a Big Concern
Greetings from the Sunshine State! I flew a new airline out of New Haven called Avelo. It felt like a cross between Southwest and People’s Express for those who remember those crazy years. I truly hope it makes it and continues to garner attention because CT desperately needs another airport between Hartford, RI and NY. I was planning on writing this on the way down, but the startup airline doesn’t have WiFi yet. What a truly great Super Bowl to […]
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Date: February 15, 2022
Frustration – Sometimes You’re The Bug; Sometimes You’re The Windshield
In my 2022 Fearless Forecast, I wrote about three key words for 2022, patience, frustration and quality. While the year is only 6 weeks old, I think those three words have resonated strongly and we are a long way from being over. Thursday was a super frustrating day for me. Early in the morning, indications were for a flat market open pending the big inflation number at 8:30am. After a big up day on Wednesday, that was okay by me […]
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Date: February 11, 2022
People Partying Again – A Look Into My Notebook
It sure seems like the hangover from the stock market decline that bottomed on January 24th has passed. People feel better and I am going to go out on a limb and say that we will see this reflected in next week’s sentiment surveys which are being taken this week. February 2nd is the highest level since the January market low, but investors certainly are happier today than then. In fact, we are now seeing the S&P 400 and Russell […]
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Date: February 9, 2022
