Bulls Best Not Fail Here
After two strong days for the bulls, the stock market took a breather on Wednesday and Thursday with the now important Consumer Price Index scheduled to be released on Friday morning. It should be a market mover and I am most keen on seeing reaction from long-term treasuries. Although it is a powerfully bullish time of year and the bulls certainly proved their mettle off of the recent lows, it would be significantly bearish for stocks to fail right here […]
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Date: December 10, 2021
Bulls Dominate
Well, well, well, the bulls certainly made some noise over the first two days of the week. I imagine the bears were not too concerned after Monday’s big bounce, but Tuesday likely induced the pain trade and forced many to reign in their bearishness. And if you recall from Monday’s post, that was precisely when there was a surge in bearish sentiment from the AAII survey. In the NASDAQ 100, a chart I posted the other day, price was right […]
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Date: December 8, 2021
Bears Surge – Stocks Still Looking For a Low
On Friday, yet again, the employment report laid a big egg as the economy created 210,000 new jobs versus the 600,000 that was expected. That is not good folks. However, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, even though the labor force participation rate increased to 61.8%. Those are both good signs. Yep, it’s as clear as mud. My thesis has been that November, December and into Q1 2022 would see a sharp increase in economic activity and strong jobs numbers. […]
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Date: December 6, 2021
Stocks Bounced and Declined – What Now? Omicron Not to Blame
Let me start out by reiterating what I have been offering for the past 5 weeks. Inflation is in the process of peaking. In late October with the good folks at Yahoo Finance, I was very firm about looking for inflation to peak between November and March. Few have joined my party which is A-Okay with me. It won’t even make my top 10 list of concerns for 2022. And with that, supply chain issues are no more by the […]
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Date: December 3, 2021
Bounce Coming, Bottom Not In & Inflation Peaking
On Monday as stocks looked to surge and recoup some of what was lost on Friday, I offered that the bounce would likely be underwhelming and I thought new lows would ensue at some point over the coming week or two. I didn’t think that would happen the very next day, but the market gods don’t always deliver in the manner I expect. Regarding Tuesday, it was an ugly day with almost 90% of the volume trading on the down […]
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Date: December 1, 2021
Friday’s Drubbing – Silver Linings & Where Stocks May Bottom
Following up from yesterday’s video, the stock market seeks to bounce back from Friday’s holiday-shortened, 2% drubbing. Yes, no matter how the bears slice it, the decline remains only 2% and a stone’s throw from all-time highs. The bears think this is the beginning of the end for the bull market and a collapse lies in wait for 2022. The bulls find the decline “curious” and interestingly timed along with the utter collapse in oil. One thing I have very […]
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Date: November 29, 2021
Two Hole-In-Ones – In One Week
Today and Friday are super strong days on a seasonal basis for stocks. That’s how it is every year around Thanksgiving although certain setups make the days stronger or weaker. With pre-market futures indicating a moderately lower open, we will see if the bulls borrowed some positivity on Tuesday. I do not sense a big down day regardless. There is certainly enough bearishness around and it seems to be growing. The other day I mentioned the calls for global collapse. […]
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Date: November 24, 2021
A 30-50% Collapse?
Greetings from the left coast where I am in the process of traveling home from a mystical and magical week at Pebble Beach with friends. Having not been there for 31 years, I was at a loss for words to describe how amazing it felt to be back at the greatest golf resort on earth, not to mention playing golf with and socializing with a good number of PGA and LPGA pros. If only my golf game cooperated! Looking back […]
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Date: November 22, 2021
Inflation Building to a Peak – Stocks Euphoric
Hopefully, you have seen my thesis that inflation is in the process of peaking. Notice, I didn’t say it peaked. The process has begun. That’s high conviction and what I going with until proven otherwise. If I am correct we will see this unfold in various sectors and asset classes, like commodities, industrials, materials, energy and bonds. For the past week I have not had strong conviction that the mild, barely discernible pullback was over and I still don’t. Sentiment […]
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Date: November 17, 2021
Inflation Peaking – Sentiment Greedy, Giddy & Euphoric
The bulls enjoyed a nice bounce back on Friday from the minuscule pullback last week. While it’s not my highest conviction play it certainly looks like there should a bit more downside to come, and preferably before the holiday. As I mentioned last week, sentiment is getting to the point where is about as euphoric, greedy and giddy as it ever gets, rivaling several spots in the post-2008 bull market as well as the Dotcom era. But before you assume […]
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Date: November 15, 2021
